1/ What is JC up to?
Why the GE-then-PV strategy?
I reckon he has 2 objectives:
1. PM.
2. Brexit.
4 scenarios:
A. A50 extension for PV-then-GE
-remain probably wins PV
-BXP surge in GE splitting Con vote
-Lab remainers return from LD/GRN (scared by BXP)
-JC PM ✔
-NO Brexit❌
Why the GE-then-PV strategy?
I reckon he has 2 objectives:
1. PM.
2. Brexit.
4 scenarios:
A. A50 extension for PV-then-GE
-remain probably wins PV
-BXP surge in GE splitting Con vote
-Lab remainers return from LD/GRN (scared by BXP)
-JC PM ✔
-NO Brexit❌
2/
B. A50 extension GE then PV
-BXP split Con vote because brexit has not happened yet
-Remainers vote for Lab to GTTO.
-JC PM✔
-JC *welches on remain option for PV
-Brexit happens✔
*maybe keep remain option in PV but campaign really hard for lexit
B. A50 extension GE then PV
-BXP split Con vote because brexit has not happened yet
-Remainers vote for Lab to GTTO.
-JC PM✔
-JC *welches on remain option for PV
-Brexit happens✔
*maybe keep remain option in PV but campaign really hard for lexit
3/
C. ND 31st Oct /GE 1st Nov
- BXPers all vote Con
- Lab remainers vote for LD rejoin
- JC not PM ❌
- Brexit ✔
D. ND 31st Oct / GE Jan 2020.
- Tories and BXP destroyed
- JC PM ✔
- Brexit✔
B or D are JC's preferences. But he cannot control the timing for D. Hence B.
C. ND 31st Oct /GE 1st Nov
- BXPers all vote Con
- Lab remainers vote for LD rejoin
- JC not PM ❌
- Brexit ✔
D. ND 31st Oct / GE Jan 2020.
- Tories and BXP destroyed
- JC PM ✔
- Brexit✔
B or D are JC's preferences. But he cannot control the timing for D. Hence B.
4/
Of course, AS USUAL, we are too busy navel-gazing to remember there is another party involved: the EU.
They might just say " Soz Jezza, we will give you an extension for a PV, but not a GE - what's the point of a GE between 2 brexiter parties?" Christ, I would laugh!
End
Of course, AS USUAL, we are too busy navel-gazing to remember there is another party involved: the EU.
They might just say " Soz Jezza, we will give you an extension for a PV, but not a GE - what's the point of a GE between 2 brexiter parties?" Christ, I would laugh!
End
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