The Curious Case Of #VardhmanAcrylics ( VAL ) & #VardhmanTextiles ( VTL) Merger .
The merger ratio at 1 share of #VTL for every 24.1 shares of #VAL gives a valuation of 38 rs or 300 cr market cap approximately.
#VAL holds 285 cr of investments and some more cash added this quarter. The gross block of #VAL used to be 200 cr plus pre 2017. The plant does a topline of 400 cr plus and an average operating profit of 40cr over the years. 40-50% of the sales of #VAL are to #VTL.
#VAL also has acres of land in Bharuch. So at 300 cr market cap the merger implies #VTL gets the plant and the land for free. How is this fair deal for #VAL minority shareholders? Plant and Land worth = 100-300 cr ? Disclosure -No Holdings. Was a shareholder a few years back.
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Multi-Year Range Breakouts in Nifty50 Stocks but Nifty50 Making Lower Tops –What to Do ?
Apart from that
1) Global Indices – US and Europe near all time highs but India continues to struggle and making lower tops.
2) Stocks in Same Sector – One at all time high the other one at 30% drawdown.
3) What to trust the Breakout Moves or Breakdown Moves ?
This creates a dilemma for a Trader – To trust the Breakout/Breakdown or Not ?
Now lets c the Charts
The Struggling Nifty50
Positive divergences on new lows.
Still in lower tops.
Last major swing highs at 24200.
Swing lows at 22800.
Every big positive candle does not see any follow up action over next 1-3 sessions. Wait for this to change.
#Retail Inflows continue to be strong but Sebi categorization of Stocks > 33k cr Mkt cap being considered Midcap has led to over-ownership and overvaluation in the Top Midcap & Smallcap ( > 20k cr )
Data from Monarch AIF Note.
1) Price CAGR >> Earnings CAGR
Nifty50 and Nifty500 have moved inline with earnings cagr.
NiftyMidcap 100 has seen max re-rating. A price cagr of 27.3% against 11.7% earnings.
2) Concentrated Flows
Mid + Small + Thematic = 55-60% share of MF pure equity net inflows in CY23 and CY24