Technical Analyst/Blogger/Educator. Blogging on Technical Analysis for 17 yrs. Vested interests in stocks -SEBI RA. Whatsapp 7977801488 for queries & updates
Dec 1 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
10 Most Interesting Videos on the CFA Society India Channel.
Take your time and go through them. Would recommend attending the physical events too.
1) Brave New World | Ritesh Jain, Co-founder, Pinetree Macro.
He spoke about the liquidity way of investing, Tracking the global liquidity flow across past decades, how liquidity impacts economies, market returns based on liquidity.
Sep 20 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#NiftyMicrocap250 - An interesting thread.
Lot of discussion on this to show how stretched #Microcaps are.
up 65-70% since March
Represents Top 250 cos beyond Nifty 500. ( Not exactly Microcap)
History of less than 2 years.
It also has an ETF by MotialOswal. 1) The Constituents tell you the Story
Look at the Top 10 Constituents.
Many of them have gone up big time in the last few months. But historically had a lot of sideways periods.
In this series, we cover interesting stories and insights of legendary investors which will give invaluable lessons in the journey of investing
In this thread, Kenneth Andrade explained how using #TechnoFunda does not work on huge PF size !!
According to him both the studies contradicts each other, example, A technical chart will tell you to sell it 20% below your purchase price and as a Fundamental analyst you will double your position at 50% below your purchase price so those things are conflicting
May 15 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
5 Trends - A thread
1) Leadership Changing in Banks, 2) NBFCs breakout, 3) PSE FOMO to set in, 4) New Age Cos Bottomed, 5) Smallcap Oops Moment !!
HDFCBank (28% Wt) - 1750 a major resistance.
KotakBank - (10% Wt) - 2000 resistance.
ICICI Bank strength continues.
SBI crossing 600 confirmation of strength.
AxisBank & Indusind Bank ( 1250 resistance ) can be new leaders.
The Data & Charts below are just #Crazy and getting crazier.
1) #Retail Participation went through the roof in 2021
Some Moderation now in 2022-2023
#Retail in Cash Market From 3 cr in Jan 20 to 11.7 cr in 2021. #Retail at 3.2 cr participants March 23.
3x jump in all participation from Jan 20 !!
Apr 17 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A thread to understand the #Hotel Industry - from the eyes of Patanjali Keswani of #LemonTreeHotel
Difference between this decade and last decade for hotel industry –
> Supply injections are going to be very very limited compared to previous decade.
> Growth of demand was at 12% and supply growth was at 15%
> Now the supply growth is under 5% and demand is northwards of 10%
Dec 9, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Small PSU Banks & Yes Bank - Future multibaggers or just a frenzy?
One will think that it is the best time for PSU bank investors given the recent rally in psu banking stocks!!
Is it really the best time? Let’s find out !!
First of all let me get this clear, if you are a new investor in PSU bank stocks who bought it 50-100% lower , then you have clearly made money and kudos to you for that…The question now to ask is whether the rally is sustainable or not
Top 5 stocks – Reliance, Infosys, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC, = 41.49% of Nifty.
Top 10 stocks constitute 58.39% of Nifty
Top 20 stocks constitute 77.07% of Nifty
HDFC Twins together constitutes 14.71% of Nifty
Reliance is the top weight at 10.77%, followed by HDFC Bank at 8.54%. 20% of the Index.
Reliance + HDFC Twins = 26.09% of Nifty (Hope you get why Nifty does not depict GDP. 26% of India GDP not equal to Reliance +HDFC)
Bottom 24 stocks have less than 1% weight
Nov 13, 2020 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
#TweetStorm - Nifty up But Stocks are Down !!. Time for Stocks to Catch Up in coming years. Read the Full Post on this link - nooreshtech.co.in/2020/11/nifty-… Another Post - March 24th 2020 nooreshtech.co.in/2020/03/equity…
2020 move did some things very differently. No euphoric move in end of 2020 like 2007. The fall has seen no relief rallies of any sort. If this is the case the historical expectation of a sideways consolidation & a retest may not happen. So the recovery can even be very ferocious
Oct 5, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
This #TweetStorm is just an itch to write about ITC Limited which everyone has spoken about :). Pardon me if its totally useless. 1) FII shareholding in December 2016 Peaked at 20.89%. Reducing Every Quarter since then !! Down to 14.6% in June 2020.
2) Mutual Funds have gone from 2.65% to 9.45%. Insurance Companies mainly - LIC,GIC etc continue to own 20-22% in the same period. Even SUUTI has gone down from 11.13% to 7.94%.
Sep 13, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The big implication of new rules in #multicap fund category by SEBI. An impromptu attempt at rambling up some thoughts. Would love comments and feedback no how to benefit from this trend. Some points i cover in tweets below 1/51) 18-20% of the Total Equity AUM is in Multicap Funds - Suddenly the rules of the game have changed. Will lead to merger and other creative solutions but not mad buying of smallcaps.
Sep 12, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A quick take on new #SEBI Norms. 1/NLike it was mentioned yesterday - Lot of things can happen. 1) A Multi-Cap Fund may merge itself with a Large & Midcap Fund or any other category. 2) Outflows from Multi-Cap Funds to #LargeCaps which reduces the theoretical buying in #smallcaps2/N 3) Close the Fund which may not be viable. Nobody likes losing AUM. 4) Another creative Solution or Loop. The Fact is #Smallcaps cannot digest 5000 Cr of Liquidity Gush, forget about 27000 cr. But all the solutions will lead to AUM leakage which AMCs may not like !!
Sep 11, 2020 • 5 tweets • 5 min read
#TweetStorm - A Quick take on the new #SEBI circular. 1) The new rule states that a Multicap Fund needs to have 25% in #LargeCaps, 25% in #Midcaps. 25% in #Smallcaps. This needs to be aligned before January 2021.
Data Source - MoneyControl 2) The Total AUM of the Multi-Cap Funds is 1.53 lakh crores. 25% allocation to #Smallcap =38300 crores. Current Allocation= 11240 Crores. Potential Buying or Difference to be Aligned = 27062 crores.
#NSE - Interesting #Statistics - #TweetStorm - •% of Shares Deliverable to Total Shares Traded now at 15.05%. Lowest since 2001. % of Delivery to Value of Shares Traded at 16.44% below 2009 !! #Daytrading increasing or #HFT , #colocation and #marketmaking?
Value of Shares Traded ( Cr ) at the Highest Ever. A peak in this generally an Inflection Point for the long term. For example January 08 value got hit in June 09. What is it now ?
Jun 24, 2020 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
#TweetStorm - 1) The Curious Case of #GlenmarkPharma and #Favipiravir. The The number of articles on Favipiravir and Glenmark Pharma have shot through the roof. We will look at it from a price,volumes and search perspective.
Stock price shot up 40% in the day and closed 27% on 22nd June 2020. Added almost a 3000-4000 cr market cap coz of this move.
Stock price fell 6.7% on 23rd June 2020.From a low of 160-200 in March the stock has moved up to 500+ but is still down from peaks of 1250.
#Whattay Series. In this #tweet thread will keep adding a lot of #stock price moves, #valuations where you end up saying #WHAT. No Reco just ?? Do comment 1) #Relaxo Footwear - just 10% away from highs. Market Cap = 18319 cr Sales 2500 cr #Bata -18419 cr Sales = 3056 cr !! PE ?
No Effect of #Corona on this #RealEstate Company. A 30% rally from the lows in May June.Low delivery volumes and almost same volumes and a weird chart.. Anyways its an avoid so not naming it.
Mar 6, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
#TweetStorm - #Stocks - Prefer avoiding stocks in public foum, given the last couple of years have been terrible, so do your own research and risk management. Do add yours also to the thread. Talking what nobody wants to talk today.
#WelspunCorp – Market Cap of 4000-4500 cr with an EBIDTA of 1000-1200 cr and to be net debt free by year end and all the geographies firing with promoter not tendering in buyback at 135 seems an interesting case for re-rating.