2020 move did some things very differently. No euphoric move in end of 2020 like 2007. The fall has seen no relief rallies of any sort. If this is the case the historical expectation of a sideways consolidation & a retest may not happen. So the recovery can even be very ferocious
Nifty was at 10730 on 15th January 2020.
Nifty made a top on 20th Jan 2020 hitting a high of 12430.
Nifty made a bottom on 24th March 2020 hitting a low of 7511.
Nifty made a new high on 2 days back on 9th Nov 2020 and is today (11th Nov 2020) trading at new highs at 12749
This #TweetStorm is just an itch to write about ITC Limited which everyone has spoken about :). Pardon me if its totally useless. 1) FII shareholding in December 2016 Peaked at 20.89%. Reducing Every Quarter since then !! Down to 14.6% in June 2020.
2) Mutual Funds have gone from 2.65% to 9.45%. Insurance Companies mainly - LIC,GIC etc continue to own 20-22% in the same period. Even SUUTI has gone down from 11.13% to 7.94%.
3) #Retail below 2 lakh capital has gone from 8.73% to 9.2% to 9.47% in last 2 qtrs and no of #shareholders from 10.57 lakhs to 12.7 lakhs to 14.61 lakhs between Dec 2019 to June 2020. Should be more higher in Sept 2020 !!
The big implication of new rules in #multicap fund category by SEBI. An impromptu attempt at rambling up some thoughts. Would love comments and feedback no how to benefit from this trend. Some points i cover in tweets below 1/5
1) 18-20% of the Total Equity AUM is in Multicap Funds - Suddenly the rules of the game have changed. Will lead to merger and other creative solutions but not mad buying of smallcaps.
A quick take on new #SEBI Norms. 1/NLike it was mentioned yesterday - Lot of things can happen. 1) A Multi-Cap Fund may merge itself with a Large & Midcap Fund or any other category. 2) Outflows from Multi-Cap Funds to #LargeCaps which reduces the theoretical buying in #smallcaps
2/N 3) Close the Fund which may not be viable. Nobody likes losing AUM. 4) Another creative Solution or Loop. The Fact is #Smallcaps cannot digest 5000 Cr of Liquidity Gush, forget about 27000 cr. But all the solutions will lead to AUM leakage which AMCs may not like !!
N/N The LargeCap Polarization got accelerated by the categorization of Stocks by SEBI. Now that stance is shifting and that is where a lot of MFs will slowly start re-aligning to Smallcaps selectively. Bottomline -Do not go rush buy or sell stocks coz of the Circular!
Data Source - MoneyControl 2) The Total AUM of the Multi-Cap Funds is 1.53 lakh crores. 25% allocation to #Smallcap =38300 crores. Current Allocation= 11240 Crores. Potential Buying or Difference to be Aligned = 27062 crores.
3) Why is everyone going mad about it in #Whatsapp and #Twitter. Total Market Cap of 251st to 500th Company is 9 lakh crores. 27000 Cr implies 3% of Equity. In many of smallcaps promoters own 50-75%. That's like 10% of float buying theoretically. Source - AMFI.
Top 2 stocks 23.56% of the Nifty. Top 3 equal to 31.12% and Top 5 equal to 42.83%.Top 20 Stocks are 79.26% of the Index. Lower than the peak of 80.4% .
Top 10 Stocks are 62.6% of the Index. All time High Concentration.
Banking and Financials continues to see weight drop from 40% to 33.16% .
Reliance is the largest weight at 14%. Last 23 stocks weight combined now lesser than Reliance.28 out of the Nifty50 stocks have a weight of less than 1%
#TweetStorm - 1) The Curious Case of #GlenmarkPharma and #Favipiravir. The The number of articles on Favipiravir and Glenmark Pharma have shot through the roof. We will look at it from a price,volumes and search perspective.
Stock price shot up 40% in the day and closed 27% on 22nd June 2020. Added almost a 3000-4000 cr market cap coz of this move.
Stock price fell 6.7% on 23rd June 2020.From a low of 160-200 in March the stock has moved up to 500+ but is still down from peaks of 1250.
The total number of shares of the #GlenmarkPharma are 28.2cr shares. 1.55 cr delivery volumes on 22nd June 2020 means almost 5.5-6% of the company shares in delivery volumes. Add another 2-2.5% today.
Almost 11-13% of Free Float got delivered on 22nd June 2020 !! Pic @stockedge
#Whattay Series. In this #tweet thread will keep adding a lot of #stock price moves, #valuations where you end up saying #WHAT. No Reco just ?? Do comment 1) #Relaxo Footwear - just 10% away from highs. Market Cap = 18319 cr Sales 2500 cr #Bata -18419 cr Sales = 3056 cr !! PE ?
No Effect of #Corona on this #RealEstate Company. A 30% rally from the lows in May June.Low delivery volumes and almost same volumes and a weird chart.. Anyways its an avoid so not naming it.
Another craziness in gone stocks - #Educomp , #OptoCircuits are up 5x from the lows of March. Another stock which has zero effect of #covid19 and does low delivery volumes.
#TweetStorm - #Stocks - Prefer avoiding stocks in public foum, given the last couple of years have been terrible, so do your own research and risk management. Do add yours also to the thread. Talking what nobody wants to talk today.
#WelspunCorp – Market Cap of 4000-4500 cr with an EBIDTA of 1000-1200 cr and to be net debt free by year end and all the geographies firing with promoter not tendering in buyback at 135 seems an interesting case for re-rating.
#BanswaraSyntex – 200 cr market cap. 160 cr operating profit. 65 cr pat. 1350 cr topline. Peak Capacity for 1500 cr topline. Net Debt 350-400cr. Reducing average 30-40 cr debt every year. New independent director.
#RSI 23. #Nifty 10782 on 5th August 2019
Nifty 10637 on 23rd August 2019 . Positive Divergence
A higher bottom on 19th September at 10670.
1.3% lower and major rally started after 1.5 months.
breaks the sloping trendline and short term bottom . Support at previous bottoms 10600
#RSI 22. #Nifty 10261 on 5th October 2018
10138 on 11th October. Positive Divergence.
3rd Bottom at 10004 on 26th October 2018. Triple Positive Divergence. 2.5 % lower on the bottom and the rally after 3 weeks.
trendline and 2 lows got taken out. Support at previous major bottoms
#MythBuster - A thread - Yesterday, when markets were up and are up today, have seen numerous messages as to how #LIC has been put to work to prop up the markets and also how #LIC Ipo is a risk as their investments need to be sold or they will have to be independent ...
Lets take it through the numbers as to how relevance of #LIC in the #Equity Markets has detoriated. 1) #LIC puts in a net of 50-60k crores a year on an average. #MutualFunds in last few months hold 25-40k crores of cash and 8000 crores of monthly inflow through #SIP.
2) Total Value of #MutualFunds in #Equity has surpassed #LIC value quite some time back. 3) #SIP at almost 90-100k crore is double the money #LIC can deploy. 4) #EPFO averages 25000-30000 cr will soon cross #LIC. Thanks to it #SBI Nifty 50 ETF is now 66000 cr and largest #MF sch
#DDT impact only on promoters and #hnis in monetary terms is not large but the signaling and sentiment impact is larger. A quick short thread on listed #equities ( will add more actual data instead of ballpark nos ).
1) total market cap of indian stocks = 150-160 lakh crores. Exact no as per bse market 153,04,724 crores. 2) 10% of that #marketcap is #PSU companies. Most of these companies at 5% yield or more 3) The dividend yield of #nifty500 has been in a range of 1-2% again #psus majorly
4) Consider 10% of the total market cap of india doesnt pay much dividends. 5) Left with a market cap of 120 lakh crores and 1% yield. 6) total dividends given a year say 1.2 lakh crores. 7) Out of this 50-60% of holding is with promoters rest 30% with foreign and domestic insti
Mutual Fund SIPs accounts stood at 2.84 CRORE! And the total amount collected through SIP during September2019 was ₹8,263 crore
The Total #SIP Aum is now 2.88 lakh crores and 2.84 cr #SIP accounts. AMFI data shows that the MF industry had added, on an average, 9.24 lacsSIP accounts each month during the FY 2019-20, with an average SIP size ofabout ₹2,900 per SIP account.
#TweetStorm - Expensive or deserves to be Expensive ? 1)One thumb rule for screening expensive companies is Market Cap to Sales or Enterprise Value to Sales. A 10x or more is generally expensive unless the company can grow sales rapidly or has extremely high Net Profit Margins.
2)Another way to look at expensive is if the Market Cap is equal to the Total Sales of the Addressable Market Size. This would lead to company having to launch different products in the future.
3)May not be the approach to take a Sell Decision or a Short Sell Decision. Very few companies can command such high valuations. Thumb Rule is just to review the investment thesis and the quality of the business. If doubts on quality , get out.
1) The IPOs-1990-1998 2) CPSE to CPSE cross holdings/ Privatization– 1999-2004 3) Golden Opportunity Missed -2004-2009 4) Disinvestment Back again through OFS/FPO- 2009-2014 5) All out -Buybacks,CPSE to CPSE , ETF , OFS -2014-2019
6) 2020 - #Disinvestment Target = 1.05 lakh crores.
Until now only 12357.49 cr done through 10000 cr from CPSE ETF, 475 cr from RVNL and 1881 cr from Enemy Shares Sale. The disinvestment left is 92643 cr to be completed in 7 months.
#TweetStorm -#LTCG Tax on Equity - Taxing Genuine Investors to get a best case 3000-5000 cr of Tax Revenue and losing 15 lakh crore Market Cap but not catching and penalizing Tax Evaders/Money Launderers does not seem Morally or Revenue Right. #Tweetstorm.
We used to earlier get influenced by people succeeding in your #social circle where you would know people over the years but now we get influenced by #SocialMedia successes that may or may not be true. #Tweetstorm on questions on approach to #FullTime#Trading