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İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Jun 24

So, the 12-day war between Israel (& the US) vs Iran seems to be over, and the ceasefire seems to be holding. Here's a thread assessing what has changed, what didn't change, and what may be next:

Since it's Israel who started this war, let's start with its war aims (declared & assumed):
- End Iran's nuclear program
- Regime change
- Kill Iran-US negotiations for a new deal
- Drag the US in
- Distract from Gaza
- Stop Europe’s 2SS push

So, was Iran's nuclear program stopped?

Expert consensus is forming around "no". The facilities were damaged but not fully destroyed. The US telegraphed its attacks early enough that Iran moved not just the uranium, but likely the centrifuges too.

Read 39 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Jun 22

A quick situational update after the US strikes Iran's nuclear facilities. Events might to accelerate, so I'm hoping to give you a snapshot of how things stand as of the time of writing this thread.

https://x.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1936672747679092774

The US warned Iran ahead of its attacks - we have confirmation of this from US, Iranian, and Arab sources. The same reporting says the strike was one-off and now over, with the US seeking negotiations and explicitly denying intent to pursue regime change.

https://x.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1936672747679092774

What about the damage? The Iranian authorities had already evacuated key sites and moved enriched uranium elsewhere. Early assessments show proven surface-level damage but no confirmed destruction of underground infrastructure. The Iranian nuclear program has not been "ended".

Read 29 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Jun 20

https://twitter.com/vali_nasr/status/1935596742008783338

Excellent question by @vali_nasr. Here's a thread about Iran's nuclear program, why it's so hard to "destroy", and why "Fordow" is really about dragging the US into war:

https://twitter.com/vali_nasr/status/1935596742008783338

Let's start with the basics. To have a nuclear program, a country needs:
- Uranium reserves
- The ability to mine ore & process it
- Centrifuges to enrich it
- Technical know-how to run the cycle

Iran has all of these *domestically*. Natively.

The way uranium is enriched is to first convert it into gas (UF₆) and then pass it through a cascade of centrifuges (which are basically fast-spinning cylinders) until it reaches a certain purity.

It's technically demanding, but not impossibly complicated.

Read 29 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Jun 19

Here's a big-picture geopolitical thread on Israel's war on Iran - its possibilities, impossibilities, dynamics, and delusions. My goal is to give you a full big-picture view in one place, which is why this is a long thread. If you prefer drip-fed updates, skip this thread.

Caveat: Most geopolitical analysis is cold and state-centric. This thread is rooted in collective liberation. Remember as you read: Israel's regime is genocidal. Iran's is a theocratic tyranny. If clear moral language makes you uncomfortable, scroll back to WSJ or CNN.

There are points where the thread touches on topics that deserve a deeper dive, or hints at arguments that require a fuller explanation. I've marked these with the door emoji. Where you see this:🚪, it means there's a door we can choose to walk into - later.

Read 57 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Feb 6

Hello everyone, emerging to drop some comments about Trump's recent statements about Gaza. I have limited time so I'd rather dump a quick analysis into a single meandering thread, sorry in advance

So: Trump, with a smirking Netanyahu sitting next to him, said he thinks Gaza should be ethnically cleansed, bulldozed, and then turned into a US-controlled "riviera." The comments have horrified and alarmed many people.

Netanyahu said they were "the first good idea he's heard"

This has zero chance of happening, but let's use this as an opportunity to explore how the region has changed since Oct 7th and how the world has changed since 2017 when Trump began his first term.

Read 45 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Dec 16, 2024

Here's a personal thread about the very strong, complex emotions that I struggled with all of last week, since we watched Assad fall and Syria rise:

(I've been working with my team on building systems that would enable me to post new content consistently & sustainably, and on multiple platforms. But I couldn't focus. I had to stop & check-in with myself. So let me acknowledge these emotions)

1. There's a nostalgic disorientation (or disoriented nostalgia?) - it's 13 years of our lives. The Syrian uprising & civil war has been a 13-year trauma. It started with immense hope and love, then tragedy, then an anger bordering on hate.

Read 15 tweets

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İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

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İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

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