Founder & chairman @Kawaakibi. Author: "The Middle East Crisis Factory". Interview requests: press@kawaakibi.org
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Jul 20 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Israel is historically unique in that it struts like a hegemon but survives like a colony. It dominates its region militarily and psychologically, yet is so critically dependent on foreign support that if the lifeline is cut, the entire structure starts to collapse.
No state in modern history combines such regional dominance with such strategic dependence. Israel wields power like an empire, but lives like a protectorate - it can't sustain its supremacy without continuous Western military, economic, and diplomatic support.
Jul 16 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Israel will never accept a sovereign, strong Syria. No amount of "goodwill signals" will change that, they’ll only be read as weakness and invite more aggression. Israel looks only at your capacity, never your intent. Its doctrine is security through mass devastation.
This government wasted months on appeasement while Israel bombed Syria 1000+ times, occupied ~200 sq km of land, inflamed sectarian tensions, this on top of its longstanding occupation of the Golan. Appeasement didn’t buy time or security. It sent a signal of weakness.
Jul 6 • 37 tweets • 7 min read
Here's a thread about Netanyahu's calculus for regional recalibration in the aftermath of the 12-day war with Iran.
Netanyahu is due to meet Trump tomorrow, and a lot might change - this is a thread about what won't
When Israel launched its war on Iran mid-June, I had said it's Netanyahu's war. Yes, it was also Israel's war, another war of consensus. But Netanyahu doesn't do anything unless it helps him politically.
This is a map of the parameters.
Jun 24 • 39 tweets • 9 min read
So, the 12-day war between Israel (& the US) vs Iran seems to be over, and the ceasefire seems to be holding. Here's a thread assessing what has changed, what didn't change, and what may be next:
Since it's Israel who started this war, let's start with its war aims (declared & assumed):
- End Iran's nuclear program
- Regime change
- Kill Iran-US negotiations for a new deal
- Drag the US in
- Distract from Gaza
- Stop Europe’s 2SS push
Jun 22 • 29 tweets • 6 min read
A quick situational update after the US strikes Iran's nuclear facilities. Events might to accelerate, so I'm hoping to give you a snapshot of how things stand as of the time of writing this thread.
The US warned Iran ahead of its attacks - we have confirmation of this from US, Iranian, and Arab sources. The same reporting says the strike was one-off and now over, with the US seeking negotiations and explicitly denying intent to pursue regime change.
Excellent question by @vali_nasr. Here's a thread about Iran's nuclear program, why it's so hard to "destroy", and why "Fordow" is really about dragging the US into war:
Let's start with the basics. To have a nuclear program, a country needs:
- Uranium reserves
- The ability to mine ore & process it
- Centrifuges to enrich it
- Technical know-how to run the cycle
Iran has all of these *domestically*. Natively.
Jun 19 • 57 tweets • 10 min read
Here's a big-picture geopolitical thread on Israel's war on Iran - its possibilities, impossibilities, dynamics, and delusions. My goal is to give you a full big-picture view in one place, which is why this is a long thread. If you prefer drip-fed updates, skip this thread.
Caveat: Most geopolitical analysis is cold and state-centric. This thread is rooted in collective liberation. Remember as you read: Israel's regime is genocidal. Iran's is a theocratic tyranny. If clear moral language makes you uncomfortable, scroll back to WSJ or CNN.
Feb 6 • 45 tweets • 8 min read
Hello everyone, emerging to drop some comments about Trump's recent statements about Gaza. I have limited time so I'd rather dump a quick analysis into a single meandering thread, sorry in advance
So: Trump, with a smirking Netanyahu sitting next to him, said he thinks Gaza should be ethnically cleansed, bulldozed, and then turned into a US-controlled "riviera." The comments have horrified and alarmed many people.
Netanyahu said they were "the first good idea he's heard"
Dec 16, 2024 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
Here's a personal thread about the very strong, complex emotions that I struggled with all of last week, since we watched Assad fall and Syria rise:
(I've been working with my team on building systems that would enable me to post new content consistently & sustainably, and on multiple platforms. But I couldn't focus. I had to stop & check-in with myself. So let me acknowledge these emotions)
Dec 9, 2024 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Israel's immediate reaction to the fall of the Assad regime is mass bombardment of Syrian army bases and expansion into Syrian territory. This tells you two things:
First: Israel saw no security threat from Assad's regime - they had a tacit understanding and Assad always stayed within the lines. So long Assad was in power, Israel had no need to take out his weapons depots or aircraft fleets, or to create a further buffer zone.
Dec 17, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The rupture in international solidarity communities (that tried to integrate Western + Global South activists) is deep. The rupture in the small Israeli-Palestinian solidarity communities is catastrophic. It'll take a decade to fix what happened in the last two months, if at all.
I'm starting to become convinced that many movements will not survive this and will have to be mourned and laid to rest, and new movements built out of what remains. Built on better principles, with more moral courage and clearer-eyed vision.
Dec 6, 2023 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
Here's a thread about the concept of indigeneity in historical Palestine and its implications in light of Zionist settler-colonialism and the persecution of the Palestinians. You may want to bookmark this for whenever someone screams "but Jews are indigenous to the land!" 🧵
Note: This thread is not an attack on Jewish life in the Middle East. It's an analytical critique of the narratives used. My argument is that indigeneity is not an appropriate framing to use in the Israel-Palestine context, but especially when used (aggressively) by Zionists
Nov 30, 2023 • 47 tweets • 10 min read
A long thread about colonialism, decolonization, what models can & can't work, and why the Israel-Palestine context is unique. I wish people would slow-read this because many are walking around with outdated models, and may be causing damage 🧵
Caveat: I wrote this as a stream of consciousness with minimum editing so please forgive me if this ends up being meandering or repetitive or choppy. I just find that I write more powerfully and authentically when I'm not trying to edit anything or make it sound good
Nov 27, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A lot has been said recently about what Islam allows or prohibits in war so I thought I'd clarify this: In Islam the distinction is not "civilian vs military"; it's "combatant vs non-combatant". Here's a quick explanation
In the classical Islamic era, the distinction of civilian vs non-civilian didn't exist. Neither the Prophet nor his tribal adversaries had standing armies made up of full-time soldiers. Armies at the time were made of men of fighting age who otherwise were traders, farmers, etc.
Nov 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
So many people seem to lack basic reading comprehension. You say Palestinian children should live, they think you say you want Israeli children to die. You say Palestinians are oppressed, they think you say you want to kill Jews. So tragic that this has become a real zero-sum.
These people aren't exactly imbeciles, mind you. Some are highly educated. I'm talking PhDs, scholars, journalists, business leaders. They don't really lack basic reading comprehension. No, they can read. They just will only understand what they want to understand.
Nov 19, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Something scary happens when people no longer feel they can convince or engage the other side; when they feel the other side is a moral lost cause and there isn't any space of possible agreement between your minimum position and their maximum, or your maximum and their minimum
Something scary happens when you stop trying to speak to people's minds or hearts or consciences because you feel it's useless. You then retreat into your identity, you become insular, you keep only to your own "kind" and your own community, and you listen only to your own story
Nov 17, 2023 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Whenever I tweet about the immense suffering being inflicted on Gaza, I get replies from pro-Israel accounts demanding that Hamas release the hostages. Here's a quick rundown of what's happening on that front. Tl;dr: Netanyahu doesn't care about the hostages
Hamas has already offered to release all hostages weeks ago. An "everyone for everyone" deal was placed on the table via Qatari mediation (all Palestinians held by Israel in return for all Israelis held by Hamas). But Netanyahu never accepted it axios.com/2023/10/30/ham…
Nov 16, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I feel like when it comes to emotionally charged topics, most people, including highly educated people, only understand what they want to understand. They only understand what confirms their biases. This is a huge reason why disinformation and propaganda continues to works.
It takes courage to stand up to our own biases, and some highly educated people are, intellectually and emotionally, fucking cowards. I feel like everyone can be smart, it's just that people make themselves stupid because emotional comfort is more important to them than truth.
Nov 13, 2023 • 27 tweets • 8 min read
Alright, since you decided to ask me, I'll tell you why the same guy you praise for "wonderful analysis" also concludes, based on the facts & evidence, that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza:
There are multiple definitions of genocide, but the most widely cited is the 2002 Rome Statute's, which established the International Criminal Court (ICC). Around 120 countries are signatories (notably the US and Israel still refuse to sign it):
Oct 31, 2023 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Since many are asking such questions, I'm going to answer. I'm assuming the questions are being asked in good faith and by people who are not malicious but misinformed
Hamas should release the hostages. Israel should also release Palestinian hostages it holds. Israel has legalized the holding of Palestinians as hostages; this isn't me saying it but Israeli human rights organization @btselem
It's hard to describe how anguished and triggered I am by the videos of Israeli soldiers & settlers torturing and humiliating Palestinians in the West Bank. It immediately triggered ugly, painful, dark memories from Abu Ghraib from 20 years ago.
It was Abu Ghraib that radicalized a much younger Iyad, twenty years ago. A whole new generation is being radicalized right now, and it will take many, many years to undo this damage, if at all.
