The Jeremy Corbyn dilemma
[Please read to end of thread (marked "THE END") before commenting - thank you]
1. JC has to call any VONC for it to be binding (any MP can, but Boris Johnson can ignore anyone else's). So JC's role is vital.
2. JC has said he will only call a VONC if he is sure that it will succeed. To be "sure", he will need strong commitments from enough non-Labour MPs in advance (presumably public ones so they can't back out afterwards). He needs moderate Tories on board, as well as other parties.
3. However, JC insists that he must be made PM afterwards. And he has said he won't support a Government of National Unity led by anyone but him.
4. And people close to him, like John McDonnell, have said that Labour intends to pursue its manifesto once it's in power. (And by implication dare MPs to vote it down, see the new Government fail, and get Boris Johnson and no deal Brexit back.)
5. So with all these preconditions attached, MPs from other parties won't back a VONC. Not in sufficient numbers to get the majority that JC has said he must be sure of getting before he calls it.
6. So the VONC won't be held at all, because JC will never get his reassurance.
7. But without the VONC, the horse trading to form a Government of National Unity cannot start. VONC must come before GNU. There's no way of skipping a step.
8. Unlike for a JC-led minority Labour government, there may well be a majority across the HOC for a proper GNU i.e. one made up of all the parties, for a specific purpose, and led by an uncontroversial choice like Ken Clarke or Harriet Harmon.
9. In other words, if we could get as far as the post-VONC haggling stage, it's likely a GNU could be cobbled together to stop a no deal Brexit.
10. But we can never get there because of Corbyn. His role in all this is vital. He is too divisive to gather enough support himself, but he can unlock the whole VONC/GNU on behalf of everyone else, and swing Labour support behind the GNU.
11. JC would still be Labour leader. He would still be able to lead Labour in the forthcoming GE. And he would have been seen to do something proactive and meaningful to try and thwart a no deal Brexit.
12. Jo Swinson and others recognised the truth of the above early. They also know there's *no time to waste*. So they tried to jump straight past the whole "JC wants to be PM" step because they knew it had zero chance of happening.
13. People who don't grasp the whole situation say "But the LD are bringing 14 MPs to the table, Labour 240+. Why are the LDs calling the shots?" But 14+240 isn't a majority. JC needs the support of *many* more MPs, including Tories.
14. But as has already been made publicly clear, moderate Tories and others won't support JC. They don't trust him. Whether that's good, bad, outrageous or terrible is *irrelevant*. What matters is that it's true. So arguing about it is just time wasting. Reality - deal with it.
15. The other thing people don't seem to grasp is that Jo Swinson wasn't saying "Corbyn can't be Labour leader." Nor was she saying "I want to be in charge of a GNU". She was explicitly advocating for a neutral figure to get past the logjam. This isn't a LibDem coup or trick.
16. So we come back to JC as both the most important process in the whole VONC/GNU plan, and the biggest roadblock. At the moment he's the villain, but he could become the hero instantly if he changes his mind.
17. All he has to do is get behind a common cause GNU lead by someone above the political fray, someone who will never seek to lead the "party" they've created (GNU) into an election.
18. And if JC does that he'll have the GE he's been craving for years within a matter of weeks, and he'll go into it with a head of steam. Labour haven't got long to win back disgruntled voters upset at their handling of Brexit. This would be a fabulous start.
[THE END - Phew!]
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For the first time, we could demote the Tories to third. Winning fewer seats than the LibDems would wipe them out as a political force.
Polls suggest this is within reach, but we need tactical voting to get us over the line.
1/12
Our choice is stark:
5 long years of the Tories in Opposition, pushing a hate-filled agenda of culture wars and immigrant-bashing.
Or the LibDems in Opposition, holding Labour to account on the issues that matter, with the Tories fuming, impotent, on the back benches.
2/12
If the Tories are in Opposition as the 2nd largest party, they get:
- 6 questions a week at PMQs
- Guaranteed coverage from media outlets with "due impartiality" requirements
- 17 Opposition Days to push their agenda and hold votes
- Almost £1 million in extra Short Money
1) Tories in Opposition. 5 years of endless culture wars & immigrant-bashing.
2) LibDems in Opposition. Tories powerless & voiceless on the back benches.
If the Tories are pushed into third, everything changes. Here's why:
1/12
Coming second would let the Tories rebuild as the official Opposition and continue to push their divisive hate-fuelled agenda.
But coming third should finish them. It might take time, but they'd be walking dead.
Second place brings substantial benefits:
2/12
Benefits of being the official Opposition:
- 6 questions at PMQs
- Guaranteed media coverage from outlets with "due impartiality" requirements, e.g. the BBC
- 17 Opposition Days to set the agenda and force votes
- Extra Short Money (nearly £1 million)
Tories in Opposition. 5 years of endless culture wars & immigrant-bashing.
OR
LibDems in Opposition. Tories powerless & voiceless on the back benches.
If the Tories are pushed into third, that changes everything. Here's why:
1/12
Coming second would let the Tories rebuild as the official Opposition and continue to push their divisive hate-fuelled agenda.
But coming third should finish them. It might take time, but they'd be walking dead.
Second place brings substantial benefits:
2/12
Benefits of being the official Opposition:
- 6 questions at PMQs
- Guaranteed media coverage from outlets with "due impartiality" requirements, e.g. the BBC
- 17 Opposition Days to set the agenda and force votes
- Extra Short Money (nearly £1 million)
Here's a significant new Tory scandal, a hit job on Keir Starmer which somehow contrived to draw in an indirect attack on Jewish faith.
(Long tweet. It is necessary to cover the scandal in full. Please expand to see the whole thing.)
They are attacking him for saying that he would "clock off work at 6pm if he became Prime Minister".
They also said "You deserve better than a part-time Prime Minister."
There are two big problems with this.
Problem number one: That's not what he said. The Tories are quoting selectively out of context, like a film poster which reads "spectacular effects" when the original review said "spectacular failure, with lacklustre effects".
It was only ever about Friday evenings, not every day.
Here's what Keir Starmer actually said:
-- transcript starts --
Keir Starmer: We have had a strategy in place and we will try and keep to it, and that it is to carve out really protected time for the kids. And so on a Friday - I have been doing this for years - I will not do a work-related thing after 6 o'clock - pretty well come-what-may.
Chris Evans: Regardless?
Keir Starmer: Yeh. Now there are a few exceptions but that's what we do. My son goes kick-boxing and so I often take him there. My daughter goes swimming and cheer-leading now, so I have been to see her in cheer-leading competitions.
Chris Evans: So you're going to ringfence that time?
Keir Starmer: Yeh. And I want to. One, because I am a dad and I love them. They're my pride and joy and I don't want to lose that time. Two, I don't believe in the theory that you are a better decision-maker if you don't allow yourself the space to be a dad and to have fun for your kids. Actually, it helps me. It takes me away from the pressure. It relaxes me. I think actually, it's not only want I want to do as a dad, it is better.
-- transcript ends --
SOURCE
Problem number two: There is also an essential and important faith element to the story.
Keir Starmer has been completely up front about carving out time on Friday evenings to participate in his wife and family's Shabbat dinners. This is something he has repeatedly talked about, for many years, for example in this Jewish Chronicle story of July 2023.
So the Tory attack was not only in bad faith (forgive the pun) but it could also be taken as a slight on Keir Starmer's family's choice of religious practices.
And yet it's not just the official Conservative Twitter account putting the boot in. (Tweet linked below, with screenshot in case they make it go away.) Individual Tory MPs are at it too.
Labour in Government. Tories in Opposition. 5 years of endless culture wars & immigrant-bashing.
Labour in Government, LibDems in Opposition. Tories powerless & voiceless on back benches.
If the Tories come third, it changes everything. Here's why:
1/12
Coming second would let the Tories rebuild as the official Opposition and continue to push their Hate agenda.
But coming third should finish them. It might take time, but they'd be walking dead.
Second place confers substantial benefits:
2/12
Official Opposition benefits:
- 6 questions at PMQs
- Guaranteed regular media coverage from the BBC and other outlets that have a "balance" requirement
- 17 Opposition Days to set agenda and hold votes
- Extra Short Money (almost £1 million)
And there's more: