The premise of this article is that European countries have no interest in managing China‘s rise and are not deeply concerned about unfair Chinese trade practices and cyberspionage. Instead of digging deeper into those concerns and attempts to build joint European approach /1
.. it presents a picture of Europe as as object that has to choose sides. That’s wrong. European countries must pursue their interests vis-a-vis China, and they broadly overlap with US interests as brought forward by many US experts and policy- makers. /2
What Europeans mostly disagree with is the more radical Trump approach which seems to be following a strategy of economic decoupling with China, not a strategy that wants to change its behavior. /3
It’s in the European interest to build a broader coalition that aims a) at making China a better economic partner, b) protects freedom of smaller countries in the region, c) keeps broader free and open global order alive and kicking. /3
Choice for Berlin, Paris, London is not between Trumpism and Chinese authoritarianism but between passivity and broader strategic initiatives aimed at building such a coalition. /4
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
My quick take on tomorrow's meetings in Washington.
The problem: After having failed to convince Putin, Trump has lost interest in Ukraine.
The risk is that he a) blames Zelenskyy for the failure, and b) entirely stops supporting Ukraine.
Europeans join Zelensky to prevent that he gets ambushed by Trump -- that Trump tells him what he has agreed with Putin and that he must pursue on that path.
Putin has skillfully laid that trap.
What Europeans want to achieve is a) that Trump doesn't look at Ukraine from Putin's perspective (after the meeting with him), and b) doesn't entirely turn against Ukraine, stopping all support, even weapons that Europeans can buy from the US.
Iran has built his bet to dominate the region as the new hegemon in a "post-American world" on its ally-proxies (Hamas, Hisbollah, Houthis, militias in Syria and Irak), on its missiles and its nuclear program.
After the attack by Iran's ally-proxy Hamas in October 2023, Israel has decided that it has to act to stop Iran's aggressive expansion -- and diminished all three pillars of Iranian power.
Deutschland kann recht leicht zurück auf den Erfolgskurs gebracht werden. Das Potenzial des Landes ist immens. Es müssen nur ein paar Dinge getan werden:
1) Die Migrationsfrage muss der radikalen Rechten entwunden werden, um diese wieder auf Normalmaß zu stutzen. Wichtig ist, dass sich die AfD nicht als Milieu großflächig etabliert, damit vernünftiges Regieren möglich bleibt.
2) Deutschland muss erheblich mehr in Verteidigung investieren. Hauptaufgabe ist die Verteidigung unserer Partner von Baltikum bis Rumänien. Deutschland muss dafür seine industriellen Kapazitäten endlich anwerfen. Nur dann gibt es Frieden und Stabilität in Europa.
Trump's ways to end /prevent war: give Russia and China what they want?
The current order is post-imperial, based on the principle of safe borders also for smaller and weaker countries.
But Russia and China want to change that: subjugate smaller countries in their neighborhood.
There is a "liberal international order"-case against Russian, Chinese and Iranian neo-imperialism; but also an "America first"-case, as all three are eager to diminish American power and influence, and want to put themselves (and their type of order) globally on top.
To give up support for "frontline states" -- countries in the vicinity of these autocratic power supported in their sovereignty by the US -- would mean to bring namely Russia and China in a better position, which would increase their appetite and belligerence.