Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Aug 18, 2019 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The government refuses to release its analysis of what may happen under No-Deal.

That forces the public to try and infer by working backward from leaked contingency plans.

These instantly become politicised as Remainers yell "See!" and No-Dealers yell "Project Fear!"
Whatever your position on Brexit, don't you deserve to know the basis on which the government is preparing for this monumental decision?

Why do you have to learn it from a document of uncertain providence, uncertain timeliness and debatable purpose slipped to the Sunday Times?
By the way, if you believe the entire Civil Service are incompetent Remoaner Saboteurs, surely it would be good to learn whether the government thinks so too?

After all, many of the contingency plans being floated will be designed and delivered by the Civil Service.
If you believe this is all an elaborate bluff, and that leaks like this undermine the UK negotiating position...

... I don't want to disappoint you or deride @RosamundUrwin's skills as a journalist but I can promise you French intelligence has had these for months.

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More from @DmitryOpines

Apr 22
1/ Recorded a guide to how I personally would go about challenging seven of the most common arguments against the US sending aid to Ukraine.

Hopefully some of you find it useful.

Will very briefly summarize the counter-arguments I make in this thread.

Arguments addressed:
Image
2/ Ukrainians were fighting before US aid arrived and continued fighting after it paused.

Depriving Ukrainians of hope to drive them to the negotiating table is morally abhorrent.

Putin won't negotiate reasonably if he thinks he can militarily crush an abandoned Ukraine. Image
3/ It's a war of attrition and every shell matters. Russians are taking significant casualties already, with US aid they'll take a lot more.

Prior to the pause in US aid, Russia was on the defensive, now it's made incremental gains. US aid matters. Image
Read 10 tweets
Mar 18
🚨Slightly Mortifying Personal News 🚨

I wrote a book and it's now on pre-sale (link below).

I've spent years yelling at my screen as influential people who can or should know better said wild things about trade to advance their agendas.

This book is my attempt to push back. A book called "Why Politicians Lie About Trade... and What You Need to Know About it" by Dmitry Grozoubinski. The front cover depicts a man in a suit speaking to a crowd from the deck of a laden container ship.
The book will be released on May 23rd of this year, published by @CanburyPress. You can pre-order it below.

It is my attempt to explain trade policy and the choices it involves as I would if anyone were ever dumb enough to ask me over a glass of wine.

canburypress.com/products/why-p…
The book's premise is that trade policy is a growing part of the conversation around issues, from jobs to healthcare and even war that voters actually care about...

... but it's complex and counter-intuitive, so politicians can lie about it with impunity, and that matters.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 5, 2023
1/ I like people and think they're overwhelmingly good and decent.

My default assumption is that whatever the slogans, or extremist elements, the vast majority of the people on the streets are just appalled by the images coming out of Gaza, and are calling for peace.
2/ Has every single person marching got a comprehensive and fool proof 12 point plan for reconciling Palestinian independence, Israeli security, regional geo-stability and the million other factors at play?

No, and that's fine. Marches are about sending signals that we care.
3/ Do I, as a Jew, wish the marchers were a little bit more thoughtful about the implications of some of their messaging?

Sure. I guess.

But it's a mass movement and like all such things, creates its own social incentives for having the spiciest take in the room.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 28, 2023
1/ International law lacks enforcement because major powers negotiating it did not want mechanisms that could kinetically prevent, curtail or punish the pursuit of their ends, even if the means involved breach the letter or spirit of the law.

They still don't.
2/ What little power international law has is almost entirely normative.

It only matters as long as countries believe it matters - and so for lack of better options we repeat ad nauseum that it does, while also arguing its broad benefits outweigh any specific constraints.
3/ What's infuriating about this is that reinforcing the normative power of international law rhetorically requires a great deal of exaggeration, selective vision and hypocrisy.

To make the case that international law matters we have to ignore all the times it clearly didn't.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 23, 2023
1/ Remember the best and most consistently accurate way of understanding Putin is to think of him as a mob boss.

It's The Wire, not the West Wing.

Prigozhin disrespected the Godfather and made him look weak. That's it. That's the only relevant consideration.
2/ "Won't this undermine Russia's efforts in the Sahel?"

Putin doesn't care. The Sahel is important to Russia's strategic plans. It's not important to him.

Murdering Capos who disrespect you and make you look weak is Putin's understanding of how you stay in power.
3/ "Won't this damage army morale and make the Ukraine war harder?"

Putin doesn't care. Higher Russian body count, a few more Ukrainian villages taken. Not important.

What's important is the message: for the disloyal there are no second chances and no happy endings.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 14, 2023
I wanted to go through this point by point, respectfully and assuming every question raised was in absolute good faith.

Note: I know nothing about this man or his politics (though I can guess) and am treating his questions seriously for the benefit of other readers.
The US has exactly as many serving troops fighting in Ukraine as its NATO European allies: zero.

The US **is** contributing a lot of materiel, but Europeans collectively are also sending a lot, both in real terms and as a percentage of GDP. Image
This conflict started in 2014 under Obama, continued throughout the entirety of Trump's term, and sharply escalated in 2022 under Biden when Putin arbitrarily decided to seize Kyiv.

If you want to draw causal linkages there you're welcome to. I struggle to see them. Image
Read 16 tweets

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