Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
@DavidHenigUK
Aug 18, 2019 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Having read through the details, I am fairly certain the document in the Sunday Times is not old or a worst case scenario. What was published is also not a comprehensive picture of no-deal, but just many of the key issues.
We presume this means to say collaboration "with" the EU. Repugnant use of language about neighbours. And I see very little that is "wrong", what is published is mostly well nuanced
What's not in the document leaked? Agriculture exports (rumours of plans for sheep culls), UK services providers unable to obtain work visas, buying and selling with EU (e.g. parcel changes), change in EU imports from single market to duty free quantities - etc, etc
The state of UK political discourse, where a Government planning document becomes 'scaremongering' when released.

Interesting that Gibraltar apart I have seen no specifics of the leak being denied.
In response to earlier tweet about what's not in yesterday's Yellowhammer leak I am offered also - bank lending to corporates, £ decline, various money market issues, no access to EU law and order / asylum EU systems, VAT, service providers to EU without correct qualifications
Thought - when one is under heavy pressure from the centre to produce output (as we understand is the case right now in Government to understand no-deal impact) the quality will tend to be low. Suspect no-deal planning suffers from this, but of course with no public scrutiny....
Confidence growing that the Yellowhammer leak was not of old documents, but material prepared in the last few weeks. Now you can start to manage risks, but it isn't clear you can do this if you are in denial about them, and try to mislead those who ask
New documents, but all has changed in the last two and a half weeks. Yeah right, because it was all that simple...

How many more different contradictory explanations are we going to get today about the leaked no-deal documents?
Check out also @Sime0nStylites tweets on no-deal Brexit, because he is as utterly unconvinced as I am that Government is in control of this
@Sime0nStylites Right question. Wrong answer, since various members of the Government already have commented. Reasonable to assume most of the details were correct, and yesterday's leak covers some of the Government's base no-deal scenario.
@Sime0nStylites More evidence that the no-deal leak was an accurate view of the latest situation, at least for the areas covered.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with David Henig 🇺🇦

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 12
There are some very good reasons not to talk about Brexit in the election.

It happened. It was traumatic. It didn't go very well. It isn't easily changed.

Rejoiners tend to forget the 2nd and 4th, Brexiters the 3rd.

theguardian.com/politics/artic…
Like it or not, we are stuck for a while in the technocratic realities of international relations when it comes to UK-EU relations. I'd expect there to be a time when that changes, when there's a rejuvenated campaign for rejoining, but not for a while.
Why are the technocratic realities of international relations not a hot topic in the General Election?

Asked nobody, for good reason. Not that UK-EU relations won't be important to various policy issues. But hardly top-ticket politics.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 12
Today's big trade news - that the EU will apply additional tariffs of around 25% on Chinese made Electric Vehicles, on the basis that they have benefitted from illegal subsidies. This comes as a result of furious lobbying for higher or lower figures. ft.com/content/0545ed…
The US has imposed higher Chinese EV tariffs, without specific justification, and it was suggested 50% was needed in the EU to remove cost advantage. But some or more of this is natural competitive advantage from far earlier investment. The EU was looking as ever for a balance.
My suspicion has long been that China was broadly aware that politically the EU had to act, and that a 15-20% tariff on EV they were prepared to bear though with some retaliation because that's what happens in such cases. The furious lobbying came against much higher figures.
Read 11 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 25
In we go... and just a few pages in, the relief is that there are none of the obvious errors than so often undermine UK accounts of Brexit - at likely cost to the sanity of @ShippersUnbound he appears on top of the subject...

Next UK negotiator perhaps...? Image
10 pages in and the level of haplessness described within the UK government system with regard to negotiations in 2017 is off the scale. I know we've improved since then. But equally, I doubt enough lessons have been learnt.
60 pages of systemic failure. There are probably many lessons to learn, but the two most obvious would be, listen to people who understand the EU, and know your objectives. Are either widely acknowledged in the UK as yet?
Read 16 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 18
Increasingly thinking that Labour is going to need some clever way to handle the EU issue otherwise there is going to be a lot of difficulty and frustration spilling into government. And judging by my inbox, affecting negotiations. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Problem with these "we can't talk about it but we always talk about it" issues is that they don't go away, and particularly when they involve international talks with a player like the EU, you simply add levels of complexity potentially making it unmanageable.
Worse with UK-EU is the sheer number of players and subjects involved, and that both sides have unfinished emotional business. More on the EU side to come, but the fact every UK story generates reaction tells you this isn't all forgotten...
Read 20 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 31
I see we're predicted to be back in the realms today of hurrying through Parliament another Brexit change without debate just to show we haven't really learnt anything, but from the tail end of yesterday's thread here's some of what I'm expecting on Northern Ireland, plus...
There are briefings that either / both - new EU law will no longer automatically be applied in Northern Ireland (it never was) / the UK will agree not to diverge from relevant EU law to avoid UK divergence (wouldn't necessarily remove SPS checks but will keep UK alignment).
As with the Windsor Framework and before, expect an enormous amount of spin that will mostly be reported without challenge, and a handful of us unfortunate enough to read it all (@Usherwood and @JP_Biz are usually good bets in that department).
Read 21 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 30
And the morning news is a deal over Northern Ireland and Brexit. But... this statement isn't true under the Windsor Framework. Even if the UK government decide to align food and drink regulations with the EU. So is this really all settled? theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
Image
Now under the Windsor Framework entry checks to Northern Ireland were reduced. But these are not eliminated by UK alignment. Possibly the DUP has finally decided to agree that these are not so different to those of pre-2016. But equally, be wary of false promises unravelling.
Obviously good news for Northern Ireland if Stormont returns. As long as that can be sustained. That's going to quite possibly mean a lot more days like yesterday, because the issues around Brexit aren't going away given Northern Ireland is the entry point to the single market.
Read 22 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(