Catherine Rampell Profile picture
Aug 19, 2019 3 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Navarro keeps going on TV and saying he knows the inverted yield curve (which he calls "flat") doesn't signal recession because he "wrote several books on the efficacy of the yield curve as a leading economic indicator."
Here's what he wrote about yield curves in one of his books
In 1st excerpt from Navarro's book, he mocks executives for not recognizing 2001 recession was coming b/c they "ignored" the "ominous progression of the yield curve" starting with a flattening in Nov '99. Here are avg yields for Nov 1999 vs past week
Here are several times over the past week when Navarro said he was an authority on yield curve inversions & the business cycle because he wrote "several books" on the subject

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More from @crampell

Nov 6
Voters' complaints about inflation seem to have handed the election to Trump.
Alas, Wall Street analysts are now forecasting *higher* inflation/interest rates as a result of Trump's win.
A thread 🧵
Capital Economics projects slower GDP growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates Image
Evercore ISI: "reflationary" for the US, lower GDP growth, higher interest rates.
Wild cards still remain about Trump's efforts to politicize the Fed. Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 30
Sen. Ted Cruz tells @edlavaCNN that he won't talk about abortion access because it's only "the press" that is "obsessed" with the issue. Not voters.
Meanwhile, Texan women are going into sepsis & dying because the TX abortion ban delayed their ability to receive emergency care🧵
Josseli Barnica is one of at least two pregnant Texas women who died after doctors delayed emergency care. This issue probably matters to the daughter and husband she left behind, among her other loved ones.
Texan Amanda Zurawski was denied abortion care after she experienced preterm prelabor rupture of membranes (PPROM) at 18 wks
She went into sepsis, causing one of her fallopian tubes to become permanently closed, compromising future ability to have kids
bbc.com/news/world-us-…
Read 6 tweets
Oct 22
YouGov blind-tested voters on 100+ Trump/Harris policies, i.e. without candidate names attached. Results:
1) Harris's agenda is way more popular than Trump's
2) Even on issues like crime
3) But unfortunately voters often don't know which ideas are hers 🧵
wapo.st/4dQpNUgImage
In general, Harris's policies poll much better than Trump's.
Nearly all of hers get majority support; only around half of Trump's do.
wapo.st/4dQpNUgImage
Trump's agenda actually fares better now than it did a few months ago. That's because of his recent pander-palooza, promising tax breaks to everyone & everything. E.g., his most popular idea overall is recent promise to exempt Soc Security income from tax
wapo.st/4dQpNUgImage
Read 13 tweets
Sep 26
Brief thread of independent economic analyses of a 2nd Trump presidency. They generally show he'd spike inflation, reduce growth, and/or increase federal deficits. 🧵

First, here's @PIIE today, looking at effects of his deportation, tariff, Fed policies: piie.com/blogs/realtime…Image
Pantheon Macroeconomics, from a few days ago
Goldman Sachs Economic Research: higher inflation, lower GDP Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 17
The SALT cap exists because of Trump's own 2017 tax law!!
My view: It's better policy to keep cap on SALT deductions in place. Lifting it, as Trump seems to propose, is expensive & very regressive. 70% of benefit of ending it would go to those making $500k+
But...I'd love to know where Harris stands on the issue, which has divided Dems
SALT cap is very unpopular in blue states like NY, NJ, CA. Letting it lapse is a priority for Schumer and Dem reps in swing districts. Harris sponsored legislation in 2019 to repeal cap.
But again, lifting the cap (or letting it lapse as scheduled) is costly/regressive
Read 5 tweets
Sep 15
"In Texas, a woman whose water broke at 18 weeks—far too early for her baby to survive outside the womb—was unable to get an abortion until she became septic. She spent three days in the ICU, and one of her fallopian tubes permanently closed from scarring. In Tennessee, a woman lost four pints of blood delivering her dead fetus in a hospital’s holding area. In Oklahoma, a bleeding woman with a nonviable pregnancy was turned away from three separate hospitals. One said she could wait in the parking lot until her condition became life-threatening." theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
Read 4 tweets

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