Navarro keeps going on TV and saying he knows the inverted yield curve (which he calls "flat") doesn't signal recession because he "wrote several books on the efficacy of the yield curve as a leading economic indicator."
Here's what he wrote about yield curves in one of his books
In 1st excerpt from Navarro's book, he mocks executives for not recognizing 2001 recession was coming b/c they "ignored" the "ominous progression of the yield curve" starting with a flattening in Nov '99. Here are avg yields for Nov 1999 vs past week
Here are several times over the past week when Navarro said he was an authority on yield curve inversions & the business cycle because he wrote "several books" on the subject
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Rep Mike Turner (R-Ohio), chair of House intel committee, tells @jaketapper on @cnnsotu that some of his colleagues have fallen for Russian propaganda and repeated it on the House floor
This follows similar comments from House Foreign Relations Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Tex) to @juliaioffe, which Turner was asked about.
Immigrant families are hugely overrepresented in the health care workforce
E.g., adult children of immigrants make up 2x the share of physicians, surgeons, & other health care practitioners compared with their share of the population (13% vs. 6%) kff.org/racial-equity-…
Immigrant adults also make up a larger share of physicians, surgeons, & other health care practitioners than they do of the population (23% vs 19%) and play a particularly large role as direct care workers in long-term care settings, representing 28% of these workers.
This is worth keeping in mind when evaluating Trump's immigration policies, which would slash **legal** immigration. wapo.st/4acKW9E
Americans overwhelmingly think Trump would handle the economy and immigration better than Biden.
Again: I implore voters to look at what each candidate would actually do on economic and immigration policy in a 2nd term. today.yougov.com/politics/artic…
All of Trump's 4 key economic planks would *worsen* inflation: wapo.st/3PdHxiY
His immigration policies involve more family separations, terminating legal status for Dreamers, mass detention camps (involving the authority last used for Japanese internment), and cutting off **legal** immigration: washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/… niskanencenter.org/project-2025-u…
Short 🧵 on political FREEDOM.
The more significant political fallout of this IVF discourse may not be revelation that GOP is often anti-family (surprise!), but rather the undermining of narrative that Dems are merely "pro-abortion" (rather than pro-reproductive freedom) (1/x)
Subtext (or text) of Repub attacks on Dem abortion positions is that they're driven by childless elites who want to kill babies.
IVF debate suggests Ds are promoting not abortion, but freedom—specifically, reproductive freedom, to choose when to begin or expand your family (2/x)
If Dems are smart, this is the angle they'll play up -- perhaps taking a page from @SecretaryPete's 2020 campaign, about how Dems should reclaim "freedom" as a rhetorical device. (3/x)
Everyone's favorite time of year: CBO budget/econ outlook day!
Here's how CBO's economic forecast has changed since last year. Check out interest rates, bottom right quadrant below cbo.gov/publication/59…
Thanks largely to those higher-than-previously-expected interest rates, CBO raised its estimate of net outlays for interest over the next decade by $1.2 trillion (or 11%)
CBO also scaling back estimates for Medicaid enrollment in coming years (top right quadrant below)