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Catherine Rampell Profile picture
Catherine Rampell
@crampell
Syndicated op-ed columnist @washingtonpost, commentator @cnn, special correspondent @newshour. Previously econ/theater NYT. Econ, immigration, tax, politics etc
eDo Profile picture ShoreLee Profile picture unload Profile picture Marcelo Martinelli Profile picture dr roth ⓀⒸ Profile picture 10 subscribed
Apr 7 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Rep Mike Turner (R-Ohio), chair of House intel committee, tells @jaketapper on @cnnsotu that some of his colleagues have fallen for Russian propaganda and repeated it on the House floor This follows similar comments from House Foreign Relations Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Tex) to @juliaioffe, which Turner was asked about.
Mar 22 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Immigration Is Helping the U.S. Edge Out Asia wsj.com/world/asia/imm… Immigration Is Fueling US Economic Growth While Politicians Rage
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Mar 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Immigrant families are hugely overrepresented in the health care workforce
E.g., adult children of immigrants make up 2x the share of physicians, surgeons, & other health care practitioners compared with their share of the population (13% vs. 6%)
kff.org/racial-equity-…
Image Immigrant adults also make up a larger share of physicians, surgeons, & other health care practitioners than they do of the population (23% vs 19%) and play a particularly large role as direct care workers in long-term care settings, representing 28% of these workers.
Mar 9 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Americans overwhelmingly think Trump would handle the economy and immigration better than Biden.
Again: I implore voters to look at what each candidate would actually do on economic and immigration policy in a 2nd term.
today.yougov.com/politics/artic…
Image All of Trump's 4 key economic planks would *worsen* inflation: wapo.st/3PdHxiY
Feb 27 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Short 🧵 on political FREEDOM.
The more significant political fallout of this IVF discourse may not be revelation that GOP is often anti-family (surprise!), but rather the undermining of narrative that Dems are merely "pro-abortion" (rather than pro-reproductive freedom) (1/x) Subtext (or text) of Repub attacks on Dem abortion positions is that they're driven by childless elites who want to kill babies.
IVF debate suggests Ds are promoting not abortion, but freedom—specifically, reproductive freedom, to choose when to begin or expand your family (2/x)
Feb 7 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Everyone's favorite time of year: CBO budget/econ outlook day!
Here's how CBO's economic forecast has changed since last year. Check out interest rates, bottom right quadrant below
cbo.gov/publication/59…
Image Thanks largely to those higher-than-previously-expected interest rates, CBO raised its estimate of net outlays for interest over the next decade by $1.2 trillion (or 11%) Image
Oct 27, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Unemployment is near record lows, inflation is coming down, and we just had a quarter of gangbusters GDP growth.
But consumers are about as negative about the economy today as they were during stretches of the Great Recession
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…
Image We actually do measure underemployment, known as the "U-6" measure. It is also around historically low levels.
Image
Sep 12, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
holy moly, child poverty rate rose from all-time low of 5.2% in 2021 to 12.4% (!!!) in 2022, reflecting end of temporary child allowance and other programs. changes in child poverty by race/ethnicity. To be clear this is the supplemental poverty measure (SPM), which takes into account taxes/govt benefits. Image
Jun 14, 2023 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
Thread on the massive bang for buck Congress can get from spending more money auditing the rich, which lawmakers unfortunately just decided to rescind. 🧵

(Based on awesome new research from Will Boning, @nhendren82, @bsprungkeyser, and Ellen Stuart) wapo.st/3NtqpFm Image Background: Congress gutted the IRS beginning ~2010, slashing its budget and enforcement capabilities, even as tax system grew more complex.
In response, among other things, the agency dramatically cut back on audits of the wealthy. Image
Jun 2, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Remember concerns about how the 2020 "she-cession" might set working women back a generation?

The labor force participation rate for prime-working-age women (25-54) just hit an all-time high. Image Share of women in this age group who have jobs is also at an all-time high (tied with level from April) Image
Jun 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
“No one is teaching your kids to be gay,” a Florida teacher told the room. “Sometimes, they just are gay. I have math to teach. I literally don’t have time to teach your kids to be gay.” washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/… in all fairness, there are schools in FL that think math class should reflect conservative Christian values. I know because my dad (who is Jewish) applied to teach accounting at a small local Christian college and was asked how he planned to ensure it was "Christian accounting"
Jun 1, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
For first time on record, YoY productivity change has remained negative for five consecutive quarters; this series began in 1948.
bls.gov/news.release/p… Image current business cycle is showing historically low productivity growth. Image
May 31, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Wonder how many other House D progressives will oppose. Seems like not enough to threaten passage, given House D leadership has come out in favor of the bill. May even be helpful if a few progressive Ds make a show of how unhappy they are with the bill, so that Rs still vote for it.
May 31, 2023 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
A running tally of Senate R's who say they'll vote against the Biden-McCarthy debt limit deal. Recall that the bill needs 60 Senate votes to clear a procedural hurdle, so both D+R votes needed. 🧵

@ me if I missed anyone 1. Sen. Tim Scott (SC)
May 30, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
CBO estimate for Biden-McCarthy debt limit bill is out.
cbo.gov/system/files/2… Image Note that CBO scores the rescission of IRS funding specified in the bill text** as expanding deficits. $1.4b clawed back, leading to a drop in revenues of $2.3,B for a net deficit expansion of $900m.

**which understates the size of the full rescission agreed to! Image
May 30, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Have none of the three talking heads evangelizing "greedflation" and circularly citing each other as evidence, nor any of the journalists interviewing them, noticed that profits are actually...falling
May 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Don't know how I can be clearer about this. My "beef" was with threatening default on our debt.
I endorse negotiating over overall spending levels (i.e., budget resolution), as well as individual programs.
All of that can—should—be done w/o threatening to blow up global economy Why? Because the threat is detrimental to the supposed objective.
Reneging on past bills will not help Congress reduce future bills. The opposite: threatening default will make it *harder* to reduce future bills, because being an unreliable borrower increases debt service costs.
May 29, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Here's my attempt to explain what happened with IRS funding rescissions.
TLDR: Not good for deficits, since IRS money has very high return on investment. But the effects are sort of real and also sort of an accounting gimmick, at least in the early years. 🧵 Background: Last year Dems gave $80B to the IRS, to be used for enforcement efforts, IT upgrades, customer service, etc. The money (part of the IRA) was desperately needed. See this thread
May 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
So far I count at least 6 House Republicans on record saying they'll vote against the Biden-McCarthy debt limit deal:
-Chip Roy (Tex)
-Dan Bishop (NC)
-Ken Buck (CO)
-Lauren Boebert (CO)
-Ralph Norman (SC)
-Bob Good (VA)

Have I missed anyone? Adding Rep. Matt Rosendale (MT) to this list. H/T @elwasson
May 28, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Quick point on the changes to the SNAP's existing work requirements, since there seems to be some confusion.
Some of the agreed-upon changes would make *more* people subject to work requirements; other changes would make *fewer* people subject to them.
On net, might be a wash.🧵 Right now, unemployed adults aged 18 to 49 who don't have children in the home and don't have disabilities can be limited to 3 months of SNAP benefits every 3 years. New Biden-McCarthy deal would move upper age limit to 54.
So, some people in their 50s would be newly affected
May 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Still waiting on agreement details, but from what we know so far: not yet clear this "deal" is so different from whatever budget deal would have happened in normal appropriations process.
In which case, if this passes, I guess fine? On the other hand, what was the point exactly? Like, we beclowned ourselves before the world, looked like a fiscal basketcase; Biden had to cut short an important diplomatic trip'; we probably incurred higher borrowing costs; and for what?
To get minimal changes to deficits, that probably would have happened anyway?