Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

An authoritarian toolkit: The WSJ reported that Huawei technicians helped African politicians spy on their political opponents. The assistance included hacking their messages, and tracking their location.

Hiroyuki Akita has argued that the injection of China’s Orwellian technologies & values into countries with fragile democracies is likely to push them towards authoritarianism. “It could see countries with immature democratic institutions morph into dictatorships”.

And, the stakes are high. If more countries tread the path of democracy, it will be easier for the US to maintain its influence. But, if China can technologically catalyse a slide towards authoritarianism, then the “foundations of the US led liberal order will gradually erode”.

Recession rumours: after stock markets shook on Wednesday, @Nouriel gave a reminder that he “gave a warning in September 2018 about the risk of a recession and crisis in 2020”. Further, he warned that many of “the factors we identified are materialising”.

Per Roubini, as well as trade wars, problems include: (i) the risk of a US growth slowdown becoming more acute now that the stimulus has run its course (ii) the fragility of growth in debt-ridden China (iii) economic, policy, financial, & political risks in Europe – and more.

Compounding these issues, Roubini noted, is that “the policy toolbox for responding to a crisis remains limited. The monetary & fiscal interventions & private-sector backstops used after the 2008 financial crisis simply cannot be deployed to the same effect today”.

US-China Trade war: The Trump admin announced that it will split the remaining ~300B in tariffs on China into two tranches, postponing the second. About half will take effect on Sept 1, with the other half (incl. consumer electronics, toys, & clothes) delayed until Dec. 14.

The postponement of the second tranche appears, in part, to be due to uncertain economic conditions. Per Stratfor, “most of [Trump’s] economic and trade advisers – including…Robert Lighthizer – opposed increasing tariffs for fear of the economic impact”.

Three thought-provoking articles:

.@HalBrands argued that the US & China should borrow ideas from the Cold War in determining how to co-operate on climate change while competing in other domains. Despite their dangerous clashes, Washington & Moscow “worked together on certain shared interests”.

Per Brands, their joint achievements included: (i) pursuing smallpox eradication & saving millions of lives (ii) building a nuclear non-proliferation regime (ii) reducing tension in key regions & (iv) signing arms control treaties to limit the danger of nuclear war.

.@profmusgrave argued that “Americans think they’re No. 1. [But] They’re wrong in so many ways”. Outside the measures of overall GDP & military might the US is “mediocre”. “By many measures, the US looks like a decidedly middle-of-the pack country”.

He continued, “The rest of the world is developing & adopting policies that can make everyday life in the US, outside of a few coastal oases, seem old. Even backward. And the U.S. reluctance, or inability, to learn from other countries is making life worse for its citizens”.

.@thomaswright08 argued that “for two and a half years, the world has wondered how…Trump would cope with a real international crisis. That crisis may have finally arrived in Hong Kong, as Beijing appears poised to execute a massive, violent crackdown against protesters.

Wright noted that in “normal administration” what would happen is that Trump would (i) issue a statement conveying there’s no place for violence (ii) ensure allies issue similar statements & (iii) ask a cabinet member to convey to Xi the geopolitical stakes.

Three events to watch in the near future:

Hong Kong: Minxin Pei argued that “The crisis appears to be careening toward a devastating climax. With China’s government now using rhetoric reminiscent of that which preceded Tiananmen Square...[HK] could well be in grave danger”.

Pei continued, “increasingly harsh warnings against Hong Kong’s protesters point not just to a hardening of positions, but also to the ascendance of figures in the Chinese government who favor asserting total control over the territory”.

Japan-South Korea trade war: per Stratfor “China will host a trilateral meeting on Aug. 21 with the foreign ministers of Japan and South Korea…A key thing to watch for in this summit is whether Beijing could act as...[the] mediator that Washington has so far been unable to”.

Stratfor continued, “Beijing certainly won't waste the chance to underscore its role as a stabilizer in the volatile East Asian theater”. China will also “benefit from emphasizing the discord within the U.S. alliance structure”.

Taiwan arms sale: The Trump administration has approved $8b in F-16 fighter jet sales to Taiwan, angering China. But, argued @WonkVJ, F-16s aren’t what Taiwan needs: they’ll be in range of China’s air defence systems. Moreover, they don’t fit Taiwan’s best defence strategy.

Jackson argued that what Taiwan really needs is a “hedgehog/A2AD” strategy. @mikepilger elaborated, arguing that Taiwan needs from the US (i) survivable anti-ship and anti-air missiles & (ii) assistance building a submarine fleet.

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting, and spreading the word. We’re continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors