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David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
@DavidHenigUK
Aug 19, 2019 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
What then are we to make of this letter from Boris Johnson to the EU? First up, a welcome reflection of some reality. An actual explanation of the position instead of just slogans. And a more constructive tone on Ireland, I suspect down to Pelosi's comments on a UK-US trade deal
Of the three reasons given, the first two essentially relate to the UK's wish to diverge from the EU, saying it will be anti-democratic if this can't happen. There's some logic to the arguments. The third, or Ireland, is more questionable, but again is probably more US focused
So what then is the proposal. First, to explore alternative arrangements "as far as possible before the end of the transition period". That won't be very far. And then something else to provide "a degree of confidence". The backstop is dead long live the backstop?
To me this part of the letter is most likely drafted by various of those involved with ERG alternative arrangements work, not least given the reference to the existing differences. The problem remains - nobody outside the EU has replaced border infrastructure.
So is this letter a serious offer or not? It is certainly meant to be seen this way, by the US and backbench MPs to name but two. And in leaving the door slightly ajar on a new 'backstop-type' arrangement, it isn't completely out of the question.
Ultimately though the problem never goes away - to avoid all border infrastructure you're going to need a close relationship of one sort or another between the UK (or at least Northern Ireland) and the EU. And the letter still can't recognise this reality.
Final thought - once again it is the UK Government who, having said the EU would fold, are having to change course. The EU will listen, but probably point out red lines and ask for a UK proposal. There won't be one, as to do so will split the Brexiteers. We inch forwards at best.
Peter Foster is not impressed with the letter
A slightly more positive view from @GeorginaEWright

@GeorginaEWright Lots of comments flying around about the letter. Mostly negative. Could be right. But I'd expect the EU to take it seriously, and ask a lot of questions. Like how do you know Parliament would pass a WA? And what exactly do you propose? And then quickly judge practicality.
@GeorginaEWright The one comment I would emphasise again that I don't think people appreciate - just how important a US trade deal is to the entire Brexit project, and how much therefore the Pelosi comments on the GFA / a UK-US FTA meant this letter had to be written now. Was clearly not the plan
@GeorginaEWright Another set of interesting thoughts - but to note the Irish Government have been critical.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 3
What you seem unlikely to read elsewhere - yesterday's Starmer - von der Leyen meeting was successful, and had the right outcome - a commitment to regular ongoing summits, and joint working to prepare them.

No flounces, no talk of special deals. Normality theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
To those complaining about the UK's lack of detail - a lazy, uninformed complaint. The EU doesn't (yet) have a mandate, the UK doesn't (yet) need to have all the asks. Both need to come in time. That will be the test of the next few months, now was not the time. As was agreed.
Those saying this is going nowhere until the UK implements everything in full, that message was received and @NickTorfaen explicitly said this at an EU reception at Labour Conference. Labour's messaging hasn't been perfect to date, it has though been good enough.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 20
Three days in Brussels mostly talking UK-EU relations after the elections with various folk on all sides, but also hard to get away from US-EU-China talk, or concerns about the direction of travel for the EU. So what were my top 10 findings? Settle down for a thread 🧵
1 - though far from top priority, the EU will happily engage with the UK. There's interest in what a new government will do. But they also expect their own interests - recently youth mobility, and fishing - to be taken seriously. Where there's overlap - security - expect progress
2 - the UK has to prepare for a really tough ongoing engagement with the EU. This will not be a single negotiation but a series of small encounters, mini-deals, cooperations etc. Unless Labour red lines change. A new narrative for the relationship - but only in part.
Read 15 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 12
There are some very good reasons not to talk about Brexit in the election.

It happened. It was traumatic. It didn't go very well. It isn't easily changed.

Rejoiners tend to forget the 2nd and 4th, Brexiters the 3rd.

theguardian.com/politics/artic…
Like it or not, we are stuck for a while in the technocratic realities of international relations when it comes to UK-EU relations. I'd expect there to be a time when that changes, when there's a rejuvenated campaign for rejoining, but not for a while.
Why are the technocratic realities of international relations not a hot topic in the General Election?

Asked nobody, for good reason. Not that UK-EU relations won't be important to various policy issues. But hardly top-ticket politics.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 12
Today's big trade news - that the EU will apply additional tariffs of around 25% on Chinese made Electric Vehicles, on the basis that they have benefitted from illegal subsidies. This comes as a result of furious lobbying for higher or lower figures. ft.com/content/0545ed…
The US has imposed higher Chinese EV tariffs, without specific justification, and it was suggested 50% was needed in the EU to remove cost advantage. But some or more of this is natural competitive advantage from far earlier investment. The EU was looking as ever for a balance.
My suspicion has long been that China was broadly aware that politically the EU had to act, and that a 15-20% tariff on EV they were prepared to bear though with some retaliation because that's what happens in such cases. The furious lobbying came against much higher figures.
Read 11 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 25
In we go... and just a few pages in, the relief is that there are none of the obvious errors than so often undermine UK accounts of Brexit - at likely cost to the sanity of @ShippersUnbound he appears on top of the subject...

Next UK negotiator perhaps...? Image
10 pages in and the level of haplessness described within the UK government system with regard to negotiations in 2017 is off the scale. I know we've improved since then. But equally, I doubt enough lessons have been learnt.
60 pages of systemic failure. There are probably many lessons to learn, but the two most obvious would be, listen to people who understand the EU, and know your objectives. Are either widely acknowledged in the UK as yet?
Read 16 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 18
Increasingly thinking that Labour is going to need some clever way to handle the EU issue otherwise there is going to be a lot of difficulty and frustration spilling into government. And judging by my inbox, affecting negotiations. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Problem with these "we can't talk about it but we always talk about it" issues is that they don't go away, and particularly when they involve international talks with a player like the EU, you simply add levels of complexity potentially making it unmanageable.
Worse with UK-EU is the sheer number of players and subjects involved, and that both sides have unfinished emotional business. More on the EU side to come, but the fact every UK story generates reaction tells you this isn't all forgotten...
Read 20 tweets

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