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Geoff Brumfiel Profile picture
@gbrumfiel
Aug 19, 2019 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
. @ctbto_alerts confirms that 4 IMS stations are offline in Russia.

RUP61; Dubna: the last message received in the International Data Centre (IDC) was 2019/08/10 03:16:59 (IDC received time UTC)

RUP54; Kirov: the last message received in IDC was 2019/08/10 06:19:31 UTC
@ctbto_alerts The other two stations went offline on August 13th.
@ctbto_alerts All four outages came just days after an accident that may have involved the nuclear-powered SSC-X-9 Skyfall missile. Five ROSATOM employees were confirmed dead in that incident. It happened on August 8. The stations are CTBTO funded, but operated by local Russian institutions.
@ctbto_alerts UPDATE: As of 17:30 UTC on 8/20, here's the status of @ctbto_alerts detectors:

RN61 Dubna: Down since 2019/08/10 03:16:59 UTC

RN54 Kirov: Down since 2019/08/10 06:19:31 UTC

RN59 Zalesovo: Down since 2019/08/13

(1/2)
@ctbto_alerts UPDATE (cont.)

RN56 Peleduy: Down on 2019/08/13. Back online, backfilling data.

RN57 Bilibino: Down on 2019/08/13. Back online, backfilling data.

In total, 5 out of 7 operational radionuclide stations in Russia have experienced problems since the accident....
@ctbto_alerts The only ones that haven't (by my count) are RN60 Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy and RN58 Ussuriysk, both of which are in the Russian far east near the North Korean border.

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More from @gbrumfiel

Geoff Brumfiel Profile picture
Jun 26
Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed, but many experts think that its been able to hold on to some of its enriched uranium.

Here's why that 400+ kilograms of highly enriched uranium is REALLY important….

A brief 🧵 (WITH POORLY MADE GRAPHICS!) Image
I’d actually been meaning to do this thread anyway, because there’s been a lot of confusion about uranium enrichment, and I thought it’d be helpful. But in the current context of this ceasefire it seems especially important.

So let’s start with how enrichment works....
Every uranium atom has the same number of protons at the center, but different atoms can have different numbers of neutrons. The number of neutrons determines a number of properties, including for uranium, how easily it splits apart.

Natural uranium is mostly uranium-238.... Image
Read 13 tweets
Geoff Brumfiel Profile picture
Jun 25
OK, after reporting this out, I've got a few final thoughts on the B-2 strike on Fordo and whether the MOPs got through.

I think there's some really interesting details that have emerged and clarified my thinking... 🧵

npr.org/2025/06/25/nx-…
First, a question I must ask myself (and that you should ask too) is have I become "man on the Internet" who thinks he knows more than the Pentagon....

I am somewhat fearful that doing my own math makes it look like I do, but I assure you I do not.

The Pentagon knows way more than I do. About the rock, about the bomb, about the right equations and the bunkers.
And from everything we can see, I think seems that they executed this strike flawlessly. The hits are clustered. The strike points chosen carefully. (@Maxar /NPR) Image
Read 11 tweets
Geoff Brumfiel Profile picture
Jun 18
If a U. S. 'bunker buster' hits a nuclear site, what might get released into the air?

Very good fact-checking here by my colleague Nell Greenfieldboyce. Iranian enrichment facilities will not "blow up" in a mushroom cloud when they're struck...

npr.org/2025/06/18/nx-…
Because the enriched U-235 is stored as a gas, its at far too low a density to start a criticality event. A bomb will simply disperse it around the local environment.
Also, unlike nuclear reactors, there are no lighter radioactive isotopes that can be dissolved in water vapor and transported over long distances (think Cs-137 and I-131).

Instead, the main contaminate will be Uranium Hexaflouride (UF6) a heavy gas that is quite toxic...
Read 4 tweets
Geoff Brumfiel Profile picture
Jun 17
ANALYSIS: There is a LOT of stuff in the media right now about the Massive Ordinance Penetrator--The American bunker buster that might get used on Iran's deeply buried site at Fordow.

Can it hit Fordow? I'm not sure.

Here's why (WITH MATH). 🧵
OK, so before we even start, a disclaimer-- I'm a journalist, not a weapons expert. But I have reported on a similar topic a long time ago.

More on that later, but first, let's talk about the MOP.

It's a 30,000 lb (13, 600 kg) bomb built by Boeing and designed to hit bunkers. Image
A lot of other outlets (particularly @thewarzonewire) have done great reporting on the MOP.

They surfaced this early DOD graphic showing that it could penetrate 60' (18 m). Image
Read 15 tweets
Geoff Brumfiel Profile picture
Sep 30, 2024
BREAKING: A tiny town in North Carolina that’s just been devastated by hurricane Helene could end up severely disrupting the global supply chain for microchips and solar panels.

(By myself, @camilareads and Scott Neuman)

Short 🧵

npr.org/2024/09/30/nx-…
The community in question is called Spruce Pine. It is America's sole source of high-purity quartz, and one of the only places that can supply high purity quartz to the world.

Or it was, until Hurricane Helene dropped a whopping 24.12 " of rain on it. Image
I spoke to Spencer Bost head of Downtown Spruce Pine. He says local businesses are destroyed.

There's now power, no water, or cell service.

"We were there for three days before we got enough chainsaws together to cut a path out of our neighborhood." (photo: S. Bost) Image
Read 13 tweets
Geoff Brumfiel Profile picture
Aug 9, 2024
The @iaeaorg is closely monitoring fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces near Russia's Kursk NPP.

This has the potential to develop into a serious nuclear emergency.

Here's some early thoughts in a short 🧵
First, let's talk about the Kursk nuclear plant (KNPP hereafter).

The plant is located inside of Russia, about 100 km from the border with Ukraine. It consists of four units, two of which are currently operational (Units 3 and 4).
Image
Image
The operating reactors at Kursk are OLD. They began operation in the 1980s, and have had multiple license extensions.

They are graphite-moderated light water reactors. Graphite moderated reactors are no longer built anywhere in the world as far as I know, and for good reason... Image
Read 12 tweets

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