Geoff Brumfiel Profile picture
Aug 19, 2019 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
. @ctbto_alerts confirms that 4 IMS stations are offline in Russia.

RUP61; Dubna: the last message received in the International Data Centre (IDC) was 2019/08/10 03:16:59 (IDC received time UTC)

RUP54; Kirov: the last message received in IDC was 2019/08/10 06:19:31 UTC
@ctbto_alerts The other two stations went offline on August 13th.
@ctbto_alerts All four outages came just days after an accident that may have involved the nuclear-powered SSC-X-9 Skyfall missile. Five ROSATOM employees were confirmed dead in that incident. It happened on August 8. The stations are CTBTO funded, but operated by local Russian institutions.
@ctbto_alerts UPDATE: As of 17:30 UTC on 8/20, here's the status of @ctbto_alerts detectors:

RN61 Dubna: Down since 2019/08/10 03:16:59 UTC

RN54 Kirov: Down since 2019/08/10 06:19:31 UTC

RN59 Zalesovo: Down since 2019/08/13

(1/2)
@ctbto_alerts UPDATE (cont.)

RN56 Peleduy: Down on 2019/08/13. Back online, backfilling data.

RN57 Bilibino: Down on 2019/08/13. Back online, backfilling data.

In total, 5 out of 7 operational radionuclide stations in Russia have experienced problems since the accident....
@ctbto_alerts The only ones that haven't (by my count) are RN60 Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy and RN58 Ussuriysk, both of which are in the Russian far east near the North Korean border.

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More from @gbrumfiel

Nov 3, 2023
One week into the ground war in Gaza, here's what experts told me based on OSINT:

✅ The encirclement of Gaza City is a precursor for operations inside the city itself.

✅ The IDF has prob. not committed enough troops for a full occupation of GC.

...🧵

npr.org/2023/11/03/121…
🟡 Israeli troops appear to be operating under rules of engagement that allow significant civilian casualties.

❌ Some believe the willingness of Israel to tolerate high civilian casualties will be the "Achilles heel" of the entire operation.

npr.org/2023/11/03/121…
First, it's been obvious for days that Israeli forces have been working to cut off Gaza.

In a press conference last night, the Israel Defense Forces announced that encirclement was now complete. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jul 6, 2023
The Mysterious Case of The Stuff on the Roof!

This claim of objects on the roof of Zaporizhzhia Unit 4 has been doing the rounds this morning, but I'd urge healthy dose of caution.

Here's why... 🧵
So first off, where did this came come from? As far as I can tell, it was Radio Svoboda (Radio Liberty's Russian Service, I think?). They posted it on their Telegram channel earlier today and did a brief write-up here:

https://t.co/uc2l8Z6O2Gsvoboda.org/a/na-snimkah-k…
There's not a lot of detail about either the image or the analysis. But the original image came from @planet and was taken at 10:51 AM (07:51 GMT) on 5 July.

Here it is, and sure enough there are the white things on the roof....
Read 12 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
NEW: @TBowmanNPR has confirmed with a "U.S. Official" that an American surveillance satellite saw an explosion at the Kakhovka dam.

The official said that the image did not indicate who was responsible or whether the blast occurred above or below water.
Although the official did not confirm the exact system used, I think that a SBIRS sat is most likely.

SBIRS stands for the Space-Based Infrared System. It is a vital part of the U.S. early-warning network designed to watch for a ICBM missile launch anywhere on earth. Image
SBIRS has two parts:

"SBIRS High" -- a constellation of geostationary satellites that watch the entire globe all at once.

"SBIRS Low" -- a group of lower-orbiting satellites that provide higher resolution imagery.

The exact capabilities of these sats remain classified but...
Read 5 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
So U.S. satellites spotted a blast at the Kakhovka Dam on the morning it collapsed, according to NYT.

I guess this would be SBIRS, right? It's certainly capable and weather conditions were favorable that night.

nytimes.com/2023/06/09/wor…
Yesterday I reported on a faint seismic signature picked up by seismic arrays in Romania and Ukraine.

Together with less well verified on-the-ground evidence (text and video), it feels like there is a strong growing consensus the dam was blown.

npr.org/2023/06/08/118…
We don't know the exact cause of the explosion. Options include:

❌ Ukrainian artillery/missile strike -- unlikely

❌ Russian demolition -- More likely

❌ Accidental detonation of a mine or other explosive -- More likely... ish?
Read 8 tweets
Jun 6, 2023
The Kakhovka Dam appears to be gone. This is going to have far-reaching consequences for weeks and months to come.

Here are some very early thoughts. (video via Ukrhydroenergo Telegram)🧵
First, a little background on what had been going on. Water levels plummeted in February and then surged in May to record highs. Image
I think this is because Russia was not managing the dam. They left some sluice gates open on their side, which caused water levels to drop at the start of winter...

But after the spring rains, the gates weren't letting enough water through...

Read 16 tweets
Apr 20, 2023
Starship lost five of 33 engines on ascent. Pretty sure I saw one or two fail shortly after liftoff. Image
Using lots of engines is a challenging design… so a failure on the first launch is definitely a learning opportunity.
Honestly given the number of failures, it’s a testament to the quality of the flight control system that super heavy flew as long as it did.
Read 4 tweets

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