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Geoff Brumfiel Profile picture
Geoff Brumfiel
@gbrumfiel
I'm an editor/correspondent for @nprscience. Mostly smart on the radio. Mostly stupid on the Twitter. Nukes/Missiles/Space/Blimps/etc. https://t.co/mS74Rq37QM
John Smith⚛ (ananthropocentric purposivism) 💉x4 Profile picture 2 subscribed
Nov 3, 2023 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
One week into the ground war in Gaza, here's what experts told me based on OSINT:

✅ The encirclement of Gaza City is a precursor for operations inside the city itself.

✅ The IDF has prob. not committed enough troops for a full occupation of GC.

...🧵

npr.org/2023/11/03/121… 🟡 Israeli troops appear to be operating under rules of engagement that allow significant civilian casualties.

❌ Some believe the willingness of Israel to tolerate high civilian casualties will be the "Achilles heel" of the entire operation.

npr.org/2023/11/03/121…
Jul 6, 2023 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
The Mysterious Case of The Stuff on the Roof!

This claim of objects on the roof of Zaporizhzhia Unit 4 has been doing the rounds this morning, but I'd urge healthy dose of caution.

Here's why... 🧵 So first off, where did this came come from? As far as I can tell, it was Radio Svoboda (Radio Liberty's Russian Service, I think?). They posted it on their Telegram channel earlier today and did a brief write-up here:

https://t.co/uc2l8Z6O2Gsvoboda.org/a/na-snimkah-k…
Jun 9, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: @TBowmanNPR has confirmed with a "U.S. Official" that an American surveillance satellite saw an explosion at the Kakhovka dam.

The official said that the image did not indicate who was responsible or whether the blast occurred above or below water. Although the official did not confirm the exact system used, I think that a SBIRS sat is most likely.

SBIRS stands for the Space-Based Infrared System. It is a vital part of the U.S. early-warning network designed to watch for a ICBM missile launch anywhere on earth. Image
Jun 9, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
So U.S. satellites spotted a blast at the Kakhovka Dam on the morning it collapsed, according to NYT.

I guess this would be SBIRS, right? It's certainly capable and weather conditions were favorable that night.

nytimes.com/2023/06/09/wor… Yesterday I reported on a faint seismic signature picked up by seismic arrays in Romania and Ukraine.

Together with less well verified on-the-ground evidence (text and video), it feels like there is a strong growing consensus the dam was blown.

npr.org/2023/06/08/118…
Jun 6, 2023 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
The Kakhovka Dam appears to be gone. This is going to have far-reaching consequences for weeks and months to come.

Here are some very early thoughts. (video via Ukrhydroenergo Telegram)🧵 First, a little background on what had been going on. Water levels plummeted in February and then surged in May to record highs. Image
Apr 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Starship lost five of 33 engines on ascent. Pretty sure I saw one or two fail shortly after liftoff. Image Using lots of engines is a challenging design… so a failure on the first launch is definitely a learning opportunity.
Mar 12, 2023 • 12 tweets • 7 min read
NEW: This brief video of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station offers definitive evidence for the condition and position of sluice gates at the reservoir.

🧵 First we can now definitively say that the damaged sluice gate in this image that emerged last week is sluice gate 1. Image
Feb 23, 2023 • 12 tweets • 7 min read
NEW: I've successfully geolocated the photo released yesterday of the Chinese spy balloon.

It was taken as the balloon floated just south of Bellflower MO on February 3.

Approximate location: 38°58'07.7"N 91°20'57.6"W ImageImage Bellflower is just visible in the lower left hand corner of the image.

It's clearly identifiable from its distinctive reservoir and a nearby agricultural supply business just north of town. ImageImageImageImage
Feb 15, 2023 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
*Sees military balloon news absolutely everywhere.*

*Looks around squinting, trying to read the room….*

WOULD YOU LIKE TO KNOW ABOUT THE TIME A BALLOON NUKED A BLIMP!?!

(of course you would… leessgooo! 🧵) A lot of people probably don’t know this, but blimps (officially “airships” or LTAs, but come on, everybody loves a blimp) were a big part of the Navy’s aerial fleet in the WWII.

And there was one thing they were very good at:

Anti-submarine warfare (ASW).
Feb 10, 2023 • 15 tweets • 9 min read
BREAKING: Satellite images and data obtained by @NPR show that Russia is draining a massive reservoir in southern Ukraine.

At stake is drinking water for 100,000s of people, agricultural production, and safety at Europe's largest nuclear plant. 🧵

npr.org/2023/02/10/115… The data is pretty stark. Since late last year, water levels have been plummeting at Kakhovka. They're now at their lowest levels in 30 years.

For perspective, this is like watching the Great Salt Lake in Utah empty out in a matter of months.
Feb 3, 2023 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
DEFINITIVE CHINESE SPY BALLOON THREAD!!!🎈

Nobody asked for it.

I'm doing it.

Here's everything technical you might want to know.... 🧵 OK, first off, what are we looking at?

According to James Flaten, a researcher at the University of MN, this is probably a stratospheric balloon. These balloons typically operate at between 80,000-120,000 ft.

This one has solar panels, so it’s been rigged for long-duration.
Feb 2, 2023 • 17 tweets • 8 min read
Computers are great at rocketry. 🚀

But ChatGPT and other generative AI programs seem to be terrible at it. 😖

I tried to learn why... 🧵

npr.org/2023/02/02/115… First off, why rocket science? It's because it is a profession that needs LOTS of computing power.
Since the early days of the Apollo program, computers have been used in design, testing and flight. "Computers are key," says MIT rocket scientist Paulo Lozano.
Dec 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
BREAKING: For the first time ever in a laboratory, researchers have generated more energy from fusion reactions than they used to start the process.

The total gain was around 150%.*

*caveats below 🧵

npr.org/2022/12/13/114… The achievement took place on December 5 at the @lasers_llnl (the National Ignition Facility).

NIF is a massive, $3.5 billion laser complex that's designed to zap very tiny things with very ginormous lasers. Image
Nov 18, 2022 • 13 tweets • 14 min read
BREAKING: An intelligence briefing slide obtained by @NPR through the Freedom of Information Act proves that President Trump tweeted classified material in 2019.

🧵

npr.org/2022/11/18/113… @NPR Here's what happened.

On August 29, 2019, an Iranian rocket blew up on the pad. Commercial satellite imagery from
@planet
showed there had been a catastrophic failure.

The next day, the President tweeted out an image that left experts stunned... Image
Nov 16, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Another nuclear plant (near the Belarusian border) lost all offsite power. Again this power is essential to safe operations. It’s difficult to know whether the 4 ⚡️ lines were deliberately targeted because it would trigger a shutdown at the plant, or as part of a more general attack on the 🇺🇦 power grid. Image
Oct 17, 2022 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
NEW: As the war in Ukraine drags on, will Putin use his tactical nuclear weapons?

I asked several experts on Russian nuclear doctrine, and while there are a lot of unknowns, there was a surprising amount of agreement on certain points (short ☢️🧵).

npr.org/2022/10/17/112… First, there is not some existential question of whether deterrence works or not. As @OlyaOliker notes, at the macro level, nuclear deterrence is keeping NATO out of Ukraine, and Russia from attacking NATO countries.
Oct 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
When I saw this photo, supposedly showing an Su-34 fighter jet slamming into an apartment building in Yeysk, Russia, I couldn't believe it.

But I have found the photo location: 46.679614, 38.295050

It is indeed in Yeysk. I barely need to highlight anything because the Google Street view is a such a dead ringer for the photo.
Oct 11, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
BREAKING: NASA's DART asteroid deflection mission has been declared as successful.

It has slowed the asteroid's orbit around its parent asteroid by 32 minutes: from 11 hr 55 min to 11 hr 23 min. Pretty cool. A "hot off the press" image from the Hubble Space Telescope, showing the debris trail from the impact, which is still visible.
Sep 11, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
In its 100th update about the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, @iaeaorg provides some important details about what's going on at the plant, and what's to come.

Short 🧵
After offsite power was successfully restored, Unit 6 was shut off at 03:41 AM local time. With the other five units already in cold shut down, this means Zaporizhzhia NPP is no longer providing any power to the grid.
Sep 11, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
BREAKING: the Ukrainian company Energoatom has announced it’s shutting down the last reactor at Zaporizhzhia.

t.me/energoatom_ua/… This is a big deal because for the past few days,

✅ The last reactor, Unit 6, has been operating in island mode, providing power to the rest of the site.

✅ The reactors and site will continue to need ⚡️ to keep the nuclear cores cool.
Sep 9, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
NEW STORY: Here's why the risk of a nuclear accident in Ukraine has 'significantly increased'

npr.org/2022/09/09/112… The long and the short of it:

Without onsite ⚡️, or ⚡️ to the nearby town of Enerhodar, the plant will have to shut down its last operating unit.

When that happens, it will be relying on backup diesel generators to keep the reactors cool.