Going to tweet out a lot of interesting charts from Goldman Sachs on "a most unusual cycle". First up, as is widely known, this has been an unusually weak economic recovery.
That isn't actually that unusual in the case of true financial crises. But as the second chart shows, the recovery in financial markets has been stunning.
This is now comfortably the longest US stock market bull run in history, and in terms of strength greater than the dotcom bubble and approaching the roaring 20s.
It's quite stark how financial assets have markedly outperformed "real" ones like house prices, or wages and inflation.
Corporate revenue growth has also been sagging as economic growth has dwindled.
Growth expectations have been sagging globally and in a secular fashion.
Bond yields are also at historical lows - as exemplified by the UK gilt yield since 1700.
One sector stands out as a world-beater: Technology. Tech companies have basically decoupled from the rest of the corporate world.
What has powered the broader stock market recovery is fatter margins and higher valuations - but if you strip out technology then it tracks the post WWII average.
There's been a lot of attention paid to the evaporation of market volatility, but this largely reflects a STUNNING decline in economic volatility.
Corporate leverage is high, but the burden is kept in check by plummeting borrowing costs.
The US deficit is unusually large relative to the state of the economy.
Meanwhile, the fiscal picture is actually improving in Europe, leading to a likely divergence in public debt ratios.
Labour costs as a share of business expenses looks like they are in a secular decline, which is one of the reasons profit margins are so healthy.
Global equities have recovered despite manufacturing being in a funk.
But services largely remains healthy, according to PMI surveys. In Europe the divergence is nearly unprecedented.
Once the yield curve inverts stock market are typically weak.
Stock market valuations are now fairly unremarkable (ish).
But the performance of growth versus value is remarkable, both in duration and strength.
This is a global phenomenon.
Despite the phenomenal tech sector performance, valuations are actually far below what they were in previous sector bubbles, such as 90s tech bubble and the Nifty 50 bubble
The dominance of tech is not as total as other industries have been in previous eras.
General Motors was also a far bigger chunk of the US stock market in its heyday than Apple or other recent giants ever were.
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The whole “Fed is failing” narrative baffles me. Just two years ago we were staring at a financial, economic and humanitarian abyss, and extremely strong action helped prevent an even worse cataclysm. If price is high single digit inflation for a few years that seems worth it?
Should they have tightened earlier? Perhaps. But I struggle to see how a Fed hiking sooner would have done much if anything to dampen the inflationary forces we’re seeing now. And people forget the bond market until recently was 💯agreeing with Fed.
And I know people get angry with the “actually, inflation is good” argument. But in a world awash with high debt that has been desperately trying to engineer an inflation-wage spiral for over a decade, actually finally succeeding might not be a bad thing?
The FT paywall is down today! So here is some of the ace work of me and my colleagues for you to sample (and perhaps consider a full subscription). #FTfreetoday
In awe of a lot of the stuff produced by my colleagues over the past year, and I’m a bit worried about leaving some sterling stuff out. So here is a *very* brief, non-comprehensive list of articles I remember off the top of my head, a mix of my own work and others.
@rmilneNordic piece on the survivors and aftermath of Utøya - one of the worst mass murders in history - was haunting and touching. ft.com/content/be85f8…
The frenzied private capital party is totally understandable, but will leave many investors bitterly disappointed and could cause broader long-term economic problems. on.ft.com/3ma2ihc
I hate to be *this guy* but…
Even as someone who has long thought the public-private line will blur more and more (and im not entirely against it) the wildness of the investor frenzy for private markets is a little unnerving. Rock up with a growth equity/PE/direct lending/VC fund and investors be like
The spark behind the birth of Vanguard passed away earlier this month, aged 88. Nick Thorndike might not be as famous as Jack Bogle, Vanguard’s actual founder, but he (inadvertently) played a pivotal role in its genesis. Short thread of recondite financial history: 1/n
Back in the 1950s, Nick Thorndike was a precocious fund manager at Fidelity, mentored by Ned Johnson himself. In 1960 he and three Bostonian friends set up their own shop, Thorndike, Doran, Paine and Lewis, which kicked arse in the “go-go” boom of the 1960s.
The go-go years were much tougher for more conservative investment groups, such as Walter Morgan’s Wellington. It ran a big, successful bond-and-stocks fund, but in the 60s boom people wanted GROWTH, not a boring “balanced” fund.