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Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆🌴🥥🇺🇸 Profile picture
@RachelBitecofer
Aug 20, 2019 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Wow, I'm blown away by all the new followers, and I'm not surprised that many want to know what I have to say about the Senate. I'll be putting out more stuff on this in the winter, after the VA legislative races, but for now, please see this thread

If you haven't already, please read my 2020 forecast which will explain how my model works & the theory that drives it cnu.edu/wasoncenter/20…
And here is @PaulHRosenberg's @Salon interview w me, w/o which many of you, including @Lawrence would never have found my work (thank you Paul!) salon.com/2019/08/17/thi…
And here is a piece I dropped last week to explain why you see a sudden exodus of GOP House members in TX cnu.edu/wasoncenter/20…
There is a ton of stuff buried in my twitter thread, which for now, remains my main way of getting information out to people. I recommend digging through it, especially if you are interested in learning more about why Democrats generally suck at elections and how they can improve

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More from @RachelBitecofer

Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆🌴🥥🇺🇸 Profile picture
Sep 24
🧵The GOP's 2024 Achilles Heel

Why Trump's Take Over of the RNC May Cost Republicans Big in 2024

When the news that the Trump family had turned the Republican National Committee into a Trump family business, I was ecstatic.

Why?

As my buddy @TheRickWilson would tell you, everything Trump touches dies, and I knew the RNC would be no different.Image
Despite dropping her real last name (Romney) and being willing to help Trump and his associates conspire to submit fake Electors as part of Trump’s broader plot to stay in power, Trump dumped then-RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel and handed the keys to the entire Republican Party’s kingdom to Lara Trump, whose only qualification for the post is that she is part of the Trump family’s crime cabal.Image
Now, I need to explain exactly why I was so happy that day, and to do that, I need to go into some brief nerd background.

In my area of political science we spend a lot of time, I mean A LOT, measuring campaign activities to see if they affect voter turnout and vote choice. As campaigns first evolved into the TV era, and then into the digital age, these empirical studies have subjected all kinds of hypotheses about voter turnout and vote choice to empirical and experimental scrutiny.

I won’t bore you with that research history aside from to tell you that by far the things that affects turnout and vote choice (persuasion) the most is in-person GOTV (Get Out The Vote) field programs.
Read 16 tweets
Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆🌴🥥🇺🇸 Profile picture
Sep 18
🧵General Election Update 4:
What Does the Data Say?

It’s mid-September and for subscribers to The Cycle, the election is exactly where I said it would be back in late July after The Switch.
Kamala Harris has maintained her predicted popular vote advantage of about 3 points and continues to pick up ground in the swing states. Image
As you know, Harris cleaned Trump’s clock in the debate Tuesday and next week we will have more data reflecting any change in her national and swing state margins, but I assume the trend line highlighted by this graphic will continue. Image
Read 7 tweets
Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆🌴🥥🇺🇸 Profile picture
Aug 11
Yes We Kam

Harris/Walz Have Changed the Fundamentals of 2024🧵

The data is starting to catch up to the shockwave that is the nomination of Vice President Harris. Image
One of the biggest problems Democrats faced this cycle was voter apathy towards Joe Biden. Fair or not, Americans wanted a new candidate and as Nikki Haley suggested back in the GOP Primary, the first party that gave them a new choice would have a big edge.

We had another election with “double haters.”

Now we only have single haters.Image
What most analysts and pundits opined could be merely a “Harris honeymoon” is translating now into what I expected we’d see the 48 hours after we saw high-profile Democrat after Democrat put their own ambitions aside to help the party coalesce around Harris: Harris will have the edge as we go into the fall.
Read 10 tweets
Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆🌴🥥🇺🇸 Profile picture
Jul 28
The Winds of Change:
Harris at Top of the Ticket is About to Shake It Up

🧵You know I prefer to have solid data to back up my assertions, but in this case I have decided for the benefit of your mental health to throw caution to the wind and get ahead of the data a bit.
The temptation to parcel out every poll this past week and next will be high (and the clicks they provoke too tempting) for them not to do so, but I want to make something crystal clear:
it will take until heading into the DNC in 3 weeks for the polls to have amassed enough data to tell us how much the dynamics of the race have changed by giving the American people the ONE thing they wanted: a younger candidate.
Read 9 tweets
Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆🌴🥥🇺🇸 Profile picture
Jul 2
Trump forced 12 year olds to perform lesbian sex acts for him.

That seems important. Image
Here’s the full doc storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
I’ll tell you something else the no condom thing. Stormy made that same point people.com/stormy-daniels…
Read 7 tweets
Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆🌴🥥🇺🇸 Profile picture
Jan 30
Today in 1933, Adolph Hitler swore this oath as he as he became the German chancellor:

“I swear loyalty to the Constitution, obedience to the law, and conscientious fulfillment of the duties of my office, so help me God.”

Having run on an explicitly authoritarian platform, within a year, Hitler had completely neutralized the "coalition government," outlawed all parties aside from the Nazis, purged the civil services of Jews and political foes, cracked down on the free press, and sent thousands of political enemies to Dachau.

In Hitler's Germany, Germans took a very different kind of oath, one to Hitler, not the law.

“I swear I will be true and obedient to the Führer of the German Reich and people, Adolf Hitler, observe the law, and conscientiously fulfill the duties of my office, so help me God.

Over the next 10 months, we are going to walk you through Project 1933 so you can appreciate the weakness of legal protections in the face of people committed to violating it and understand how Project 1933 relates to the Republican Party's Project 2025.

RT & Tell your friends.
#Project1933Image
Read 4 tweets

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