🧵🔥👇
Appeasement Didn’t Work Then.

It Won’t Work Now.

While he was in prison, the German version of Club Fed, for trying to execute a coup, Hitler wrote Mein Kampf — part autobiography, part revenge manifesto, part how-to guide for dismantling the post–World War I order. It wasn’t subtle. He said, outright:

“The reunification of German-Austria with the Motherland… must be carried out.”

And he was clear the borders of Germany should expand:

“It is not the preservation of peace, but the expansion of the people’s living space that is the most pressing task of our time.”

🧵STAT(S) of the Week: Tariffed Enough Already

Trump’s New Tax on America

Trump’s tariffs are finally here—and they’re hitting your wallet like a second income tax. He promised China would pay. Instead, American families and small businesses are footing the $29.6 billion bill. Here’s what he’s not telling you. In July 2025, the U.S. government brought in $29.6 billion in tariff revenue. That’s not a typo. That’s nearly $30 billion in a single month—triple the average from previous years. It’s the kind of hockey-stick spike that should set off alarms. But to hear Donald Trump tell it, this is a triumph. “We’re making money again,” he crows at rallies. “Other countries are finally paying!”

Except they’re not. We are.

🔥🧵Different Party, Same Ideology

The South Switched Teams but Kept the Same Ideology

There’s a favorite talking point on the American right: “Democrats were the party of slavery. Democrats were the party of Jim Crow.”

If you're sick of that, this 🧵is for you. There’s a favorite talking point on the American right: “Democrats were the party of slavery. Democrats were the party of Jim Crow.” They throw it out like a grenade in political arguments, as if it were a trump card that delegitimizes any modern conversation about race, justice, or the parties’ respective commitments to equality. And yes, it’s true — the Democratic Party was the party of slavery. It was the party of Jim Crow.

But that was then. And this is now.

🧵The Anatomy of “Othering”:
How Authoritarians Build Permission for Violence

All autocratic regimes need enemies. Authoritarians invent them to seize power.

If there’s one universal truth in the history of authoritarianism, it’s this: violence doesn’t begin with bullets—it begins with words. It begins with a process. A framework. A campaign to paint certain people as dangerous, alien, corrupt, or diseased. To make them “other.” Once a group is defined as outside the moral circle of society, anything becomes permissible. Ostracization. Censorship. Persecution. Deportation. Detention. Extermination. The list evolves, but the logic remains the same: they are not like us. And because they are not like us, they must be stopped.

🚨🔥🧵👇Herding Cats:
The Problem Isn’t Just Structural. It’s Behavioral.

Democrats are not just losing the information war because the other side has Fox News and a billion-dollar propaganda ecosystem. That’s a big part of it, sure—but it’s not the whole story. The comms asymmetry isn’t just structural. It’s behavioral. It’s psychological. It’s us. Let me break this down for you, because until we understand the real problem, we’re not going to fix it. And if we don’t fix it, we’re not just going to lose elections. We’re going to lose democracy.

🚨🔥🧵Politicize Everything:
A Blueprint for a Party That Fights.

Let me start with the obvious: Republicans politicize everything. They politicize natural disasters. They politicize immigration. They politicize murder victims, train derailments, gas prices, egg prices, hamburgers, light bulbs, M&Ms, and your damn stove. If a dog slips on the ice in Iowa, Steve Bannon’s podcast will have it chalked up to Biden’s America by lunchtime. Fox News will feature it on a five-segment loop under “Border Chaos.” By dinnertime, Ted Cruz is tweeting about how Trump would’ve salted the sidewalk himself.

Meanwhile, Democrats are out here still asking for permission to feel angry.

🧵Make America 1933 Again
The Rise of American Fascism

It can happen here. It already is.

Fascism doesn’t need to show up looking like the History Channel: swastikas, stiff-armed salutes, and jackboots marching down Main Street.

(Learn more 👇and RT so your friends can too!) Contemporary fascism, here and abroad, wears their Sunday best and clutches a Trump Bible. Fascism in Germany didn’t start with deportations and gas chambers,—it started with the elimination of civil rights and a Big Gov surveillance system focused on “thought crimes.”

Did you check out all week on vacation?

Update 👇

The Cycle Monday Memo
Live Free. Die fast. Get Digested Slowly

Let’s begin with a quick vibe check. Are you breathing air with an AQI over 300 today? Wearing Crocs in public because it’s too hot for socks but too dangerous to go barefoot? Great. Then you’re ready for this week’s news. The Elon Musk Civil War: America Party Edition

First up, our favorite discount Bond villain, Elon Musk, declared civil war on the Republican Party this week by suggesting he’s launching the “America Party,” a political vehicle so inspiring it was conceived during a Twitter poll with as much methodological rigor as your drunk uncle asking, “Who wants to go to Waffle House?” at 3am.

🚨🚨🚨BREAKING: Elon Musk Announces a New Party.

Democrats Should Throw Him a Parade.

Elon Musk has decided America needs a new political party. And not just any party – the America Party, founded on the deeply inspiring and universally unifying mission of… eliminating the national debt??

(Please RT this!) Don’t get me wrong, there is always decent public support for lowering the debt, theoretically.

What has happened to the girls at Camp Mystic is EXACTLY what one of the country's best meteorologists
@JohnMoralesTV warned would happen.

Learn how Trump's cuts to @NOAA & @NWS have critically impacted storm prediction nationwide. x.com/rachelbitecofe… x.com/rachelbitecofe…

🧵🚨🧨🎇🎆U.S. Blues
States Once Ruled Your Mind, Body, and Bedroom.

They Want to Do It Again

Tomorrow is July 4th. Independence Day. Almost 250 years since America went to war to declare itself free from being ruled by a king and created government for the people, by the people.

For the love of democracy, please RT👇 But for the first time since the Civil War, the survival of American democracy is at stake.

100 years ago, Americans were not all that free, and certainly not free in the modern sense.

Most Americans had almost no protection from government overreach – not just from the federal government, but from their state governments.

🧵🚨🚨🚨The Cycle's Monday Memo:

Yes the Senate just passed the Big Ugly Bill but actually, Republicans have a Really Big Problem

Want to know more?

This 🧵is for you!!

(please RT) BUT Elon Musk has once again declared open war on any Republican who voted for this bill:

And is reminding everyone that the results of his “very scientific” twitter poll DEMANDS a new party he wants to call The America Party.

🧵
Something Wicked This Way Comes

Folks,

Shit has hit the fan in LA and other Blue cities as the realities of rounding up millions of people, many of whom have lived in the U.S. for years or came as children and have grown up American begin to take root.
thecycle.substack.com/p/the-cycle-mo… For those of us who’ve spent the last 6 months discussing how Trump would use mass deportations to create chaos is the Blue states and then use that chaos as an excuse to declare a national emergency and seize total power, things are right on schedule.

🧵There are serious implications to the end of Elon and Trump’s partnership.

I have mentioned before, even having Elon exit stage left was great news for us, but having him kill off Trump’s Big “Beautiful” Bill.

Well, that could change everything. Not only may we end up in a 2026 scenario where a major player (and his money) have removed themselves from the game, now we might even see Elon actively undermine Republicans up and down the ballot.

🧵Trump's Executive Orders Serve One Sinister Purpose:

Inside Team Trump's Shrewd Strategy to Kill Democracy

Many times I’ve asked you to imagine what it would be like, what your thoughts, feelings, and beliefs about contemporary America would be like, if you were one of the 100 million plus Americans who can’t name their own state’s senators. Vox dropped a recent piece that is firewalled, but I want you to read this short excerpt from their reporting:

🧵STAT of the Week
Voters Have No Idea What Democrats Stand For

I want to show you something very important.

You know I talk non-stop about how Republicans have intentionally trashed the Democratic Party’s brand, but today I want to focus on how Democrats help them get away with it. Last week David Shor from Blue Rose Research released their election autopsy. You can find the entire presentation this slide comes from here in a conversation between Ezra Klein and David Shor.

🧵What is the Overton Window and Why Is Elon Musk Breaking It?

Elon Musk Bought Twitter to Make the Unacceptable Acceptable. And It's Working. So many political science terms, so little time.

As I meet with more and more people from the upper tiers of Democratic Party politics it is becoming clear to me that there are key findings from peer-reviewed political science research that simply never trickled down to the general public.

🧵STAT(S) Of the Week:
Never Interrupt Your Enemy When They Are Making a Mistake

I think, and I believe many of you must agree, it is best to live and strategize in the world we actually live in and not the one we wished we lived in. Unfortunately, in the real world, even after two months of the terrible headlines we have been reading, the average public still likes Donald Trump way more than Democrats.

He still beats us by 20 points!

🧵Here's Why Democrats Can't Meet This Moment
And How We Can Fix It

Folks, for a long time I’ve wanted to introduce you to a book that came out a year or two ago by a journalist named Tina Nguyen called The MAGA Dairies.

There are a lot of reasons to read this book and for a long time I’ve held out hoping to get the author onto the podcast to talk about it with me, but I can’t afford to wait any longer. Why?

Because this book is the perfect illustration of how and why the Republican Party has managed to radicalize 50 million people into wanting autocracy AND also the perfect explanation of why Democrats seem completely lost in response.

🧵Living History:

Plenty of Parallels between MAGA and the NAZI Movement

Folks, sometimes when I’m waging war against the MAGA Nazis on the twitter machine I come across something I read and then want you to read too.

This is why I am going to copy and paste this short piece from someone who would prefer to remain anonymous (with their permission!) This analysis shows the parallels between MAGA and another fascists movement from 100 years ago who you know as the Nazis.

Here it is:

The comparison to Nazi Germany isn’t just a stretch—it’s a direct historical parallel unfolding in real time. Trump’s playbook is eerily similar to Hitler’s rise to power, and the signs are all there for those willing to see them.

🧵The Tipping Point Is Upon Us:
Will MAGA Simply Ignore the Courts?

Ok folks, we’re three weeks in and have already entered the “constitutional crisis” phase of things.

I want to draw your attention to something critically important in the coming week. The federal courts have started to respond to Elon Musk’s illegal attack on federal agencies and programs like USAID. This is going to create a real litmus test for the survival of our democracy.

Much of what Trump and Elon are doing is so flagrantly illegal, it is hard to imagine much of it surviving judicial review, even at the Supreme Court level.

Yes, the Federalist Society controls the Court, but on occasion at least three of their justices, Gorsuch, Barrett, and Roberts have ruled on the side of the Constitution against Trump. There is one major exception and that is the immunity case where they not only did their best to create an untouchable presidency, but also did it in a way to drag the case out of being tried before the election. So we know they have it in them.