Rachel Bitecofer šŸ—½šŸ¦† Profile picture
National analyst/strategist. Pollster. PhD. The Cycle on Substack, This is America, Living History & Hit ā€˜Em Where It Hurts. This account kills fascism #FAFO
88 subscribers
Dec 8 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
The Trump Who Stole Christmas

(A Holiday Poem for a Country Getting Mugged in Broad Daylight)

Every American down in America

Liked Christmas a lot.

But the Trump, who lived south of sanity,

Most certainly did not.

Trump hated Christmas — not the money of course,

but the laughing, the shopping, it makes him feel worse.Image So deep in his tower, carved out of gold,

He plotted a scheme—

one cruel, dark, and cold.

He’d tried once before to ruin their cheer,

With Big Lies about elections the previous years.

But this time he thought,

with a smirk and a grin,

ā€œI’ll simply raise premiums ’til nobody can win!ā€
Dec 1 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
🧵The Whole World is Getting Dumber
(And the Smartphone Did It)

How’s this for a gut punch?

The entire developed world is getting dumber.

Don’t believe me? Check out this graph that shows a world wide ā€œdumbingā€ across three core cognitive domains—math, reading, and science-that occurs right after the introduction of the smart phone.Image And no, it’s not ā€œwoke teachers,ā€ or ā€œlazy kids,ā€ or the Department of Education.

This isn’t even a uniquely American story.

The trends are global. OECD-wide.

Finland to France. Japan to Germany. Australia to the U.S.

Good systems and bad.

Everyone is slipping. Image
Nov 24 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
🚨🧵Here's part 2 of my Terrible Truths I've Learned About Humanity series, plz RT

They Not Like Us:
When Cruelty Becomes Contagious

Permission to Be Cruel

There’s a comforting myth that runs deep in American culture, especially among moderates and people who pride themselves on being reasonable.Image It’s the belief that most people are naturally kind, that cruelty is fringe, and that if we just had better manners and calmer politics, things would sort themselves out. It’s a lovely idea. It’s also wrong.

The truth is that cruelty has a constituency. Not a majority, not even close, but a solid, persistent minority — roughly 10 to 20 percent — who exhibit stable personality traits that are callous, aggressive, or outright sadistic.
Nov 19 • 27 tweets • 8 min read
🧵STATS You Should Know:
The Midterm Effect is Coming

Folks, if you’ve been wondering whether the ā€œmidterm effectā€ is actually lining up behind all the blue wins we just had, the answer from the data is: yes.

Three fresh national polls — Marist (for NPR/PBS), AP-NORC, and Reuters/Ipsos — are all telling the same basic story:Image The environment is turning hostile for Trump and the GOP.

The public is screaming ā€œprices, prices, pricesā€ as the top issue.

Trump’s grip on Republicans is still strong but no longer ironclad.

And yet, voters still don’t trust the parties or institutions, and they’re perfectly willing to blame Democrats for pain they experience, even in a Trump-engineered crisis.

Let’s walk through what these polls collectively tell us.
Nov 11 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
🧵Reality Bites:
Trump’s Voters Have Just Found Out They’re on the Menu

When the government reopened, cable pundits called it a cave. Twitter called it surrender. I called it a win—because from where I sit, Democrats didn’t lose the shutdown fight, they won the long game and gave the ACA its only chance of survival.Image The point was never to ā€œhold outā€ for an Affordable Care Act subsidy extension that Republicans were never going to give in the shutdown. The point was to force them to take ownership of killing it. That’s exactly what just happened.
Oct 19 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
🧵They Thought They Could Control Him:

They Wanted to Save Germany. Instead They Destroyed It

When Adolf Hitler became Chancellor of Germany in January 1933, it wasn’t because he seized power. It was because Germany’s conservatives gave it to him. Image He didn’t storm the Reichstag. He walked through the front door — ushered in by aristocrats, generals, and businessmen who thought they could use him to save themselves from democracy.
Oct 15 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
🚨🧵Why We Can't Panic
Humans Are Designed to Keep Calm and Carry On

Ten months into Trump’s return to power, America feels like its full of pod people (you youngsters can go ahead and Google that one).

The FBI and DOJ have been purged and now serve as Trump’s personal revenge machine.

The so-called ā€œCountering Domestic Terrorismā€ memorandum re-brands nearly half the country—anyone left of MAGA—as a potential extremist threat.Image Kristi Noem is on airport TVs blaming ā€œradical liberal Democratsā€ for the shutdown. The law doesn’t matter. The Hatch Act doesn’t matter. Nothing matters. And the public reaction is… nothing. I used to think the problem was information—that if people knew, they’d act. I’m not so sure I believe that anymore.

Here’s why:
Oct 13 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
Shut is moving fast now: You really should read šŸ‘‡

Coordination the American Way:
Inside Trump’s Plan to Turn the U.S. Government into a Weapon Against Us

When historians describe how Nazi Germany became a dictatorship, they don’t start with the camps. They start with coordination — Gleichschaltung — the process by which every institution in Germany ā€œalignedā€ itself with the will of the regime.Image No orders had to be barked. People, fearing irrelevance or punishment and watching colleagues be purged, simply did what was expected. Courts, newspapers, universities, police — each coordinated.

Now, a century later, we are watching the American version unfold in real time.
Oct 1 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
🧵We're Deep in the Shit Now
The Only Way to Win the Shutdown Was Not to Play Image The Shutdown Power Grab

The government is shut down. That alone is bad enough, but here’s the kicker: Trump and his people have already said out loud that they’re going to redefine what ā€œessentialā€ means. Under normal shutdown rules, the basics keep going: Social Security checks, veterans’ benefits, air traffic control, border patrol, some law enforcement. Everyone else gets furloughed. It’s disruptive, but it’s not supposed to be apocalyptic.
Sep 28 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
Smart People Are Dumb, Dumb People Are Experts:
Welcome to the De-Enlightenment

To tens of millions of Trump supporters, expertise itself is proof of corruption. The more qualified you are, the more you must be part of ā€œthe deep state.ā€

This isn’t just dumb. It’s coordinated dumb. It’s the De-Enlightenment: a deliberate inversion of the values that built modern society.Image I monitor MAGA for a living. My feed is a constant firehose of crazy — conspiracy memes, medical quackery, climate hoaxes, and 19th-century economics dressed up as ā€œAmerica First.ā€

And the pattern is always the same: the very markers that once signaled someone was trustworthy — credentials, experience, a government position — now mark them as suspect. To tens of millions of Trump supporters, expertise itself is proof of corruption. The more qualified you are, the more you must be part of ā€œthe deep state.ā€

This isn’t just dumb. It’s coordinated dumb. It’s the De-Enlightenment: a deliberate inversion of the values that built modern society.
Sep 25 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
šŸ§µšŸ”„šŸšØThis Is NOT Conservatism:
It’s Fascism

I didn’t want to be in DC on election night. I was sick to my stomach. But I went anyway, because if Harris won, I wanted to give people hope, and if she lost, I wanted to make sure no one could spin it as just another ā€œnormalā€ Republican victory.Image On Sky News, I sat next to two grinning Republicans celebrating their win. And I said it plainly: this isn’t conservatism, it’s fascism. The panel looked at me like I’d dropped a bomb. But I wasn’t exaggerating. I was describing what’s right in front of us.
Sep 19 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
🧵From Goebbels to Google:
Shame Shit, Different Century

When people say ā€œsocial media is destroying our society,ā€ they act like we’ve never been here before. But we have. Exactly one hundred years ago, a new technology burst onto the scene, and within a decade, it had completely altered politics, democracy, and the way people understood reality.Image That technology was radio, and the Nazis immediately understood its potential to warp minds.

The parallels to today’s social media crisis aren’t just striking—they’re terrifying.
Sep 17 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
🧵The Prices Are Too Damn High:
Trump's Tariffs are Hitting Americans Hard

Donald Trump loved to promise that other people would pay for his schemes. Mexico would pay for the wall. China would pay for the tariffs. Cute. Here’s the correction: other people don’t pay. You do. Image Your kid. Your neighbor who works nights. The person at the hamburger joint sliding fries across the counter. Tariffs are a stealth sales tax — invisible, regressive, and perfectly designed to hurt people who can’t afford it.

This is Tax Scam 2.0. He calls it ā€œtough on trade.ā€ You call it ā€œwhere did my paycheck go?ā€
Sep 15 • 24 tweets • 6 min read
🧵Fear Factory
Turning Point isn't a Debate Organization, its a Conflict Machine

Charlie Kirk didn’t invent conflict entrepreneurship, but he sure helped to perfect it. He is the prototype of a generation of right wing internet entrepreneurs who figured out that the surest way to build power, attention, and money otherwise off limits to them is not by governing, legislating, or even persuading—it’s by manufacturing outrage and monetizing it.Image From the garage to the donor class

Kirk founded Turning Point USA in 2012 at just 18 years old but he wasn’t some grassroots kid hustling alone. He had a mentor, Tea Party activist Bill Montgomery, and very quickly he had a benefactor: Foster Friess, a conservative megadonor who bankrolled much of the group’s early work. That early money mattered. It allowed TPUSA to scale fast—staff, merch, events, and a social media strategy that turned ā€œtriggering the libsā€ into a donor-driven business model.
Sep 4 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
🧵A Blue Tsunami Is Headed for Virginia and New Jersey:

Out-Party Fundamentals Are About to Open a Can of Whoop Ass on the GOP

Sometimes life comes full circle.

Almost ten years ago, I was putting out a forecast in 2017 projecting a big win for Democrat Ralph Northam over his Republican opponent, Ed Gillespie in the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial race.Image That race was widely treated—by media and the conventional wisdom—as a knife-edge toss-up. Yet my polling with Quentin Kidd at the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University consistently tracked a Democratic lead of at least six points.
Aug 13 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
🧵The Nazi War on ā€œAsocialsā€

You Can't Cure Crime Without Crushing Freedom

When the Nazis sold themselves to Germany in the early 1930s, they didn’t just promise jobs, glory, and a return to greatness—they promised a national makeover. And like all authoritarians, their definition of ā€œcleaning upā€ had less to do with fixing the economy and more to do with purging poor people.Image The Reich was obsessed with visual order. Cities were to be spotless, streets safe, public behavior disciplined, and every human being was expected to conform to the Nazi ideal: healthy, hardworking, racially ā€œpure,ā€ and loyal to the state.
Aug 10 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
šŸ§µšŸ”„šŸ‘‡
Appeasement Didn’t Work Then.

It Won’t Work Now.

While he was in prison, the German version of Club Fed, for trying to execute a coup, Hitler wrote Mein Kampf — part autobiography, part revenge manifesto, part how-to guide for dismantling the post–World War I order. Image It wasn’t subtle. He said, outright:

ā€œThe reunification of German-Austria with the Motherland… must be carried out.ā€

And he was clear the borders of Germany should expand:

ā€œIt is not the preservation of peace, but the expansion of the people’s living space that is the most pressing task of our time.ā€Image
Aug 7 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
🧵STAT(S) of the Week: Tariffed Enough Already

Trump’s New Tax on America

Trump’s tariffs are finally here—and they’re hitting your wallet like a second income tax. He promised China would pay. Instead, American families and small businesses are footing the $29.6 billion bill. Here’s what he’s not telling you.Image In July 2025, the U.S. government brought in $29.6 billion in tariff revenue. That’s not a typo. That’s nearly $30 billion in a single month—triple the average from previous years. It’s the kind of hockey-stick spike that should set off alarms. But to hear Donald Trump tell it, this is a triumph. ā€œWe’re making money again,ā€ he crows at rallies. ā€œOther countries are finally paying!ā€

Except they’re not. We are.
Aug 6 • 22 tweets • 7 min read
šŸ”„šŸ§µDifferent Party, Same Ideology

The South Switched Teams but Kept the Same Ideology

There’s a favorite talking point on the American right: ā€œDemocrats were the party of slavery. Democrats were the party of Jim Crow.ā€

If you're sick of that, this 🧵is for you. Image There’s a favorite talking point on the American right: ā€œDemocrats were the party of slavery. Democrats were the party of Jim Crow.ā€ They throw it out like a grenade in political arguments, as if it were a trump card that delegitimizes any modern conversation about race, justice, or the parties’ respective commitments to equality. And yes, it’s true — the Democratic Party was the party of slavery. It was the party of Jim Crow.

But that was then. And this is now.
Aug 4 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
🧵The Anatomy of ā€œOtheringā€:
How Authoritarians Build Permission for Violence

All autocratic regimes need enemies. Authoritarians invent them to seize power.

If there’s one universal truth in the history of authoritarianism, it’s this: violence doesn’t begin with bullets—it begins with words. It begins with a process. A framework. A campaign to paint certain people as dangerous, alien, corrupt, or diseased. To make them ā€œother.ā€Image Once a group is defined as outside the moral circle of society, anything becomes permissible. Ostracization. Censorship. Persecution. Deportation. Detention. Extermination. The list evolves, but the logic remains the same: they are not like us. And because they are not like us, they must be stopped.
Jul 23 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
šŸšØšŸ”„šŸ§µšŸ‘‡Herding Cats:
The Problem Isn’t Just Structural. It’s Behavioral.

Democrats are not just losing the information war because the other side has Fox News and a billion-dollar propaganda ecosystem. That’s a big part of it, sure—but it’s not the whole story. The comms asymmetry isn’t just structural. It’s behavioral. It’s psychological. It’s us.Image Let me break this down for you, because until we understand the real problem, we’re not going to fix it. And if we don’t fix it, we’re not just going to lose elections. We’re going to lose democracy.