Election analyst, editor @The__Cycle, host of The Election Whisperer pod, defender of democracy via @StrikePac & senior adviser to @LincolnProject
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21 Jan
1. As per @SteveKornacki's comments on prez honeymoons. Yes, Trump's was unusually low BUT he also alone made NO OVERTURES to anyone other than base Republicans, something no other incoming prez has EVER done coming in. So even w polarization, you are seeing that effect in his %. Image
2. It's an unusual strategy, one he used in both campaigns & throughout his presidency. He lost reelection- its a DUMB approach but I also think its imp to point out that at least within the Rep coalition, including Indies that lean R, it worked too well. He had to do almost
3. nothing "centrist" to hold onto the "centrist" support of the R coalition & that part of the GOP remains loyal to him to this day even after he led an insurrection against the Capitol & tried to seize permanent power- with considerable help from other elected Rs. This is the
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19 Jan
1. I focus mostly on the Right's Fear Capitalists, but I hope I can teach you the skills to recognize the tricks of the trade of fear capitalists on the Left too.

Free tip: their content focuses on grievances about Dems while the other party is busying actually ending democracy
2. their goal is the same as their Right side counter points, inflame your passions, radicalize you by making mountains out of molehills & turning everything into conspiracies & "elite" domination theory when the reason nothing gets done policy wise is the GOP is the party of NO
3. and must get crushed at the ballot box so that they deradicalize and reform their party. That takes all people who are not Rs voting together for Ds, winning as much power as possible, & then yielding it to get as much policy as possible. If you are watching content that makes
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16 Jan
1. OMG! Just finding out now, via @TiffanyDCross (love her show, THIS is why diversity MATTERS BTW) that there was a 538 analyst @farai whose work on demos & voting was intentionally surpressed by Nate Silver who patronized her when she confronted him for
2. & I'm sure she's never heard of me, or what happened to me or what I went through for the same reasons (my research argues that polarization/hyper partisanship -which is asymmetric (concentrated on the Right) is a product of the collapse of the white power paradigm & rise of
3. egalitarianism & argues that election outcomes are heavily conditioned on the demographic composition of the electorate (which campaigns should manipulate via their electioneering to win- IE: Georgia) & Silver has pretty aggressively shit on me & my research but back to her
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15 Jan
1. As per @chucktodd's int w MI's Aty Gen @dananessel: she was surprised to find out that the National Rep Aty Gen Association (@RepublicanAGs) helped org the rally of extremists on the 6th. They are supposed to be on the side of law enforcement & even disregarding what ended up
2. happening, think about what this organization was up to. It was helping to org, it was inviting & enticing Americans to go to a rally, the theme of which was to overturn a democratic, free, fair, and verified to be free from fraud by extensive legal reviews election. Yet, the
3. Republican Party's main organization for law enforcement was there to support invalidating Joe Biden's election and overturning, literally ending democracy in America. I mean, MY GOD. This is the GOP's Aty Gen Association!! We really need the press to step up coverage of the
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15 Jan
1. Really imp new poll from @pewresearch folks: by far the most imp data point is that Trump's approval has FINALLY responded to a political event. Trump's approve % is just 29% & that can only happen bc FINALLY some Rs have deserted him- 17 pts worth of them. This is bc some R
2. electeds like @lisamurkowski are breaking from Trump & I swear if more elected Rs do so, if @senatemajldr supports impeachment, if more Rs like @jameslankford apologize for pushing the stolen election lie R voters will continue to move bc public

3. public sentiment is clearly conducive RIGHT NOW to a bandwagon effect against Trump. If you're a R influencer or have access to R influencers like my @ProjectLincoln peers like @Shermichael_, @RadioFreeTom @BillKristol @davidfrum @DavidAFrench @SarahLongwell25 @TaraSetmayer
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15 Jan
1. As @nytdavidbrooks just pointed out to @SRuhle on her show, despite collapsing into a radicalism so severe they are trying to end democracy, electorally the GOP is primed for a strong cycle in 2022, something we simply CANNOT allow them to have. And one reason is in 2020 they
2. experimented w targeting low-edu voters of all races to see if they could exploit them, relying on these voters to not know the GOP's real record on race & other issues. They found they could and what they plan to bring to bear on this effort in 2022 will be huge. This is one
3. of the main reasons I'm starting @StrikePac- I'm too afraid to signal warning to the Ds and just simply hope they do something after what happened in 2020. I wanted to be SURE this gets responded to. So a massive digital effort will be made to get the truth out to these voters
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15 Jan
1. Here is a great job by @HerreraBeutler helping avg Americans pull together/understand how Trump/GOP connects to the insurrection on the Capitol. Again, few Americans are like YOU, they don't follow news daily. They need to be reminded as to how we got here. This is why I've
2. asked the major media outlets @MSNBC @CNN @FoxNews @washingtonpost @nytimes @WSJ etc to provide clear timeline accounts that show HOW the counting of the ballots produced Biden as the winner so that people will be able to see how it went from election night leads for Trump to
3. large Biden wins in the swing states. This would be a significant public service. It would also be great for any super pacs or organizations to run ads w this, ESPECIALLY on @FoxNews & if @StrikePac had the financing right now, I would do so. BC "curing" the Rep electorate of
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14 Jan
1. In case you're wondering WTF is reconciliation and why is @MattGrossmann talking about it in relation to passing a spending bill?

Its the bypass our Congress has been using for YEARS now to hide the fact that it can no longer create policy under regular order so it pretends
2. new fiscal/spending/tax/healthcare! policy is altering current law so only 50 senate votes are needed and you can bypass the filibuster. This is why I'm not that popular among the very progressive people. I like to tell people the truth, deal in reality. etc & the truth is
3. even before our sitting prez was trying to pull off a coup- our country was in BAD shape bc we stopped being capable of creating policy over a decade ago, largely, unless its for the very mundane. Look around the world at other democracies & find one that is policy polarized.
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14 Jan
1. Good news- my OG 2020 prez forecast- posted July 1st 2019, which I could not find anywhere online for awhile, is now back up, stored via @SSRN

In it I argued the D nom, no matter who is was, would dominate in the Midwest bc of surge turnout among

2. all elements of the Democrat's voter coalition, including Indies that lean Dem, but most esp from GIANT surges of college educated voters in the 'burbs. It also said AZ was highly likely to flip.

Though it thought GA competitive, didn't say it would for sure flip.

IMP to
3. keep in mind, when this forecast released, the election analysis world was still very much entranced with the HillBilly Eulogy, non-college educated white Trump Army theory of 2020. If what I wrote seems like a no brainer bc its almost exactly what happened, you should know,
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14 Jan
1. Unless there are more than 10 House Rs & the GOP's "Cancel Culture" fails to drive @Liz_Cheney from her leadership post there won't be a GOP Civil War.

We NEED one.

That's why I'm putting pressure on every single org, entity, outlet, that can come to assist the GOP 10
2. (House) impeachment voters & the few in the senate right now that are willing to stand up for democracy. We need to help them learn to define their votes as "pro-democracy"- the alt is the end of democracy. We need to make clear that the so-called "stop the steal" movement was
3. a LIE designed to hide Trump's effort to literally end democratic elections in America. But these people can not do it alone. They need every group they can get behind them. And if others see them supported, more will join them. 10 is not enough. It may be too late for the
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13 Jan
1. All of the survey data cited just now by @jheil is all an example of respondents on the Right being purposely PRIMED, by right wing media, who are doing this kind of shit for the express purpose of fermenting violence.

This is why I'm forming @StrikePac - we've gotta
2. serious. Amd as @SteveSchmidtSES adds to this, this is EXACTLY WHY we can't afford to lose another national election in this context- & this includes the the Midterms where it will be a fucking disaster if they take control of the House. They're goal there is to take control
3. of the House & then use the total agenda control of that chamber to just eviscerate the only group capable to stopping them, which is the Dem Party. The whole fucking enchilada is on the ballot in that 2022 midterm, which is why I (& it sounds like @ProjectLincoln too THANK
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13 Jan
1. I won't say that I could have anticipated impeachment for "Incitement of Insurrection" as the formal charge, but given my Jan. 2016 prediction that Trump would likely NOT leave office w/o a peaceful military coup to physically remove him I sadly feel vindicated that I was
2. recognize, w Trump's win, the severe turn out political system was taking. That it wasn't some type of a populist joke that "owned the libs." That it wasn't going to be surprise cache of luck for the Right to squirrel away from unexpected political gains. Trump's psychosis
3. was so glaringly obvious, so inescapably laid bare to anyone willing/capable to see it, that it was clear CRYSTAL clear, that democracy was going to erode & quickly. @jheil is right. This is a time for choosing. All of us must be laid bare & forced to choose. Team democracy or
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13 Jan
1. I've had a few reach out about my comment on @ThirdWayTweet- a group I admire & have often compromised, promoted, sent student to, & even hope might reach out to me once I went free range post @NiskanenCenter. To be clear- never been a big fan of the mentality that one must
2. universally compliment an organization/person (including myself/my own work) so I'm a bit surprised to see the reaction of "you've always said great things about 3rd Way so I'm confused about what you'r "attacking" them now.

1st, a criticism is not an attack & being able to
3. separate one from the other is part of our problem in politics. Along w its many great works, the criticism I shared is that to maintain allies on the Right, my thought it that they, along w No Labels, have sometimes accepted the both sideism frame that is really relegated in
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12 Jan
1. Friends, yesterday we released a sample ad of what how @StrikePac will message against the GOP. Frustratingly, voters were never approached which the frame of the Rep Party's collapse into extremism in the 2020 cycle aside from work from outside groups like @ProjectLincoln,
2. @MeidasTouch, @votevets & other "super pacs" which are essentially grassroots funded organizations that are making use of the "super pac" designation to electioneer. Organizing as a super pac actually affords groups a great deal of flexibility to perform pro-democracy work
3. so despite the "ewww, yuck!" factor of that designation, not all SP's are, in fact, evil entities (other than the fact that so many of you I wholly support a fully publicly funded system w very strict limits & honestly, a 30 day electioneering window per cycle which would
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11 Jan
1. Been excited about @JoeNBC's sustained convo today about @KBAndersen's new book Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America which explains how the Republican Party radicalized OVER ECONOMICS over the past 30 years. It was launched w the radical tax cuts in Reagan's presidency, but
2. as the GOP evolved through the 90s & 2000s they became dogmatic about their economic philosophy- until it became a radical litmus test/position the party followed even when conditions screamed for different policy. It was a MIRACLE the party acted to stabilize the economy at
3. at the end of 2008 when it was crashing down around us (though they just barely did & some didn't and that's bc it was before the Great Purges of 2010,2012, & 2014). America doesn't know the hit job the GOP did on the American economy as they dogmatically pursued tax cuts to
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11 Jan
1. I'm excited about my old @ElectionWsphr partner (or since we went to TX, is it pardner?!) @OldBullTV (who is really Flip Pidot- handsome youngish guy w French lineage though sorry ladies, he's happily married) anyway that he's taken his giant & mathematically talented brain
2. and bent it towards developing an innovative forecasting & polling modeling technique. Y'all should check it out! Like me, Flip values transparency, being willing to try new things & document what works & what doesn't instead of trying to insist everything does work, & he's
3. coming from a really unique perspective bc he's bringing to the convo an understanding of a 3rd area of election analysis/predictive stuff which honestly, until I met him, knew existed but never had even looked at: political betting. That work over there is very interesting,
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10 Jan
1. Yes Cap Police were pre-warned by FBI. TOGETHER, collectively they ALL should have taken the threat seriously. What seems strange is that there was NO staged presence around the Capital like ⬇️ the preemptive presence (for NO known threat) against BLM protestors. When we ask
2. about the possibility of collusion or nefarious behavior on behalf of the management of Cap Police the failure to call in a strong force w National Guard troops too to build manned barricades around the Capitol Building is the thing that doesn't add up at all. And whether or
3. not domestic terrorism is codified sure as hell didn't prevent the troops outside of the Lincoln Memorial in June so that argument just doesn't work to explain why no force was set up around the Cap Building. To me, it seems like the big diff was that in the case of BLM the
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10 Jan
1. You also have to give them a landing. It's tempting, I know, to take the pent up rage out on the only ones who respond to you (like @ProjectLincoln!) or Never Trumpers like @RadioFreeTom or @BillKristol bc they were "guilty" in the past or "waited too long" like @WalshFreedom
2. but at each of the big inflection moments where Trump lost support I've begged non-Rs to consider the fact that if Trump supporters see that they have nowhere to go, they will stay w the only people that DO accept them, & the price might actually be the collapse of democracy
3. which, until Weds, some people thought I was being hyperbolic about. I WASN'T! When the MAINSTREAM of a major political party divorces themselves from democratic norms & values & its supporters turn to a fictionalized world to justify their political party's actions, your
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8 Jan
1. Yes, it's much worse. There were maybe 12 handguns defending our Congress. If any of the terrorists who stormed our Capitol had a bomb he could've wiped out most of our Congress.

They posted their entire attack plan online in advance.

The cold, hard truth is that security
2. CHOSE to be light, chose to make it possible for these Far-Right extremists to menace Congress, likely they were ordered to by Trump appointees, & that in some cases didn't have to be bc they support Trump. Every guard that hang out w, abetted, or helped these insurrectionists
3. should be charged. Its understandable that many did not confront a force they would have been overwhelmed by- that is diff. But the ones that escorted them into the Capitol??? The Capitol Police are currently protected by a FOIA ban. That ban should be exempted for the purpose
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7 Jan
1. I realize this is a bit awkward, timing wising, but I NEED to promo a critical event for @FairfaxDems bc its a kick-off for Virginia's 2021 election cycle, which will be to keep the state's governing trifecta, post- Trump.

VA is where my theory was born- I knew the demos
2. of the state, esp its high rates of college ed, were going to produce a large backlash effect to Trump's election. It ended up being YUGE- electing the D gov in a 9pt route & in 2 cycles erasing a 30+ seat adv for Rs in the state house & a state senate majority to have both
3. chambers controlled by Ds now. And Ds have USED that governing trifecta. With no filibuster to gum up the works at the state level- Ds have been busy 🐝🐝 in VA, dealing w a log jam of legislative inaction that hasd been caused by GOP control of the legislature through 2 Dem
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7 Jan
1. Some of you are unimpressed at the little things. Graham announcing on the senate floor- "that's it! I'm done!" & confirming that Biden straight up won the election, or Nick Mulvaney resigning a cushy diplomatic post, McConnell's speech & admonishment at his peers who indulge
2. Trump w the senate challenge, Rep @TomReedCongress's unequivocal & impassioned floor speech about what is right and standing w Democrats on behalf of "right" & all of the other little tokens of Trump resistance that are FINALLY popping up here in our country's darkest hours.
3. But with about 30ish% of the country seriously entertaining the fully nutty inclinations of this madman, we really NEED the GOP to change its mind and reject him. If many little acts happen, they might form a BIG effect. What has always given Trump power is the collective
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