2. First observation of the missiles themselves - we see the Sayyad-4 missile, with serial no. SD4AM M4A. Sayyad-4 is widely attributed to be Bavar-373's missile and was seen years ago with the same fin assembly and tapered nose (3rd photo). It's about 7m long.
3. It is launched vertically, as seen in these screenshots. But notably, it is a HOT launch, meaning the rocket motor is ignited inside the canister. This is unlike the S-300, which uses a cold launch system, ejecting the missiles with gas before they are fired (last pic).
4. The TEL is the Zoljanah, a LARGE 10x10 off-road truck. In testing it has 2 launch canisters, but when operational it will have 4.
5. Other vehicles include the Zafar, an 8x8 off-road truck used to carry the radars. Also included is a 6x6 truck (which may be off-road capable) with a large cabin (last screenshot). It seems to act as a mobile command post for the battery.
6. Curiously, Bavar has 3 radars instead of the usual 1 (Patriot) or 2 (S-300). 2 of the radars shown are here - an engagement radar and an "engagement and acquisition" radar. The battle management radar (last 2 pics) was shown before, called Meraj-4 (450 km range). All AESAs.
I'll talk more about this curious radar arrangement, and go into the whole Bavar-373 subject technically, in an upcoming blog post.
CORRECTION: The Meraj-4 battle-management radar is in the last (3rd) picture, NOT the last 2.
7. New picture of the erected Bavar-373 TEL, showing exposed missiles in testing.
8. Wide shot with full view of the TEL
The pictures and videos are just streaming in, at this point the leaks are REALLY jumping the gun for the big event tomorrow where the President is supposed to be present at the unveiling.
9. Full HD video of some of the test firings recently shown
10. Bavar-373 official unveiling is here. Specs:
Max. detection range: 320 km
Max. tracking range: 260 km
Max. engagement range: 200 km
Max. engagement altitude: 27 km
Simultaneously detected targets: 300
Simultaneously tracked targets: 60
Simultaneously engaged targets: 6
14. Fars News claim Bavar-373 has thrust vectoring (TVC) technology. I would take this with a pinch of salt for now, until other news agencies report it and/or officials confirm it.
15. DEFAPRESS (Defence Ministry Press Agency) has released more pictures:
16. And more:
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Israel's assassination of Nasrallah gives us an insight into how they might tackle Iran's nuclear facilities.
Israel used 40-80 BLU-109 "penetrator" JDAMs rather than dedicated bunker busters. F-15s were completely loaded with bombs (7 each) & no external fuel tanks.
BLU-109s can penetrate approximately 6 ft (1.8m) of concrete. It's unknown how deeply buried Hezbollah HQ was, but it's clear that the Israelis made successive hits at multiple points to penetrate it.
This is clearly a huge effort, but it wouldn't be feasible against Iran...
The obvious main difference is range. Carrying 7 tons of draggy ordinance next door to Lebanon against no air defences is easy. But Iran's enrichment sites are 1500km away and heavily protected, dispersed, and buried.
Reminder to all to be vigilant of the disinformation on both sides during this war, which can take many forms.
5 Examples
1. Journalists posting stories briefed to them by officials on one side, designed to present a particular narrative. An common technique in propaganda wars
2. Fake or old/unrelated videos posted by either side. Designed to exaggerate or minimise the scale of friendly or enemy action, or allege warcrimes. Usually simple clout-chasing, sometimes organised disinfo.
3. Propaganda by omission and censorship. Tight censorship is (obviously) important for OPSEC, but can also be used by both sides to control the narrative of who is winning and who is losing.
Many focused on Shoigu - Secretary of Russia's Security Council and former Defence Minister - and Major General Bagheri, Chief of General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces.
But I thought the entourage was more interesting...
During the meeting with Bagheri, key Russian officials included Shoigu's deputy Venediktov, and also Dmitry Shugaev. Shugaev is Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, responsible for military-technical cooperation between Russia and foreign countries.
The Iranian side included Brig. Gen. Mehrabi, who was also present when Shoigu visited Iran in 2023 as Defence Minister. The US sanctioned Brig. Gen. Ghoreishi in 2023 (while he was at another post), claiming he negotiated UAV exports to Russia.
Hezbollah has so far denied that its rockets hit the area in Madjal Shams. We'll see what info comes out but for now I'll say this explosion seems quite large to be from a failed interceptor or anything like that.
Next few hours will decide if there is a wider war or not
I've seen some say this was a Falaq rocket. Falaqs have relatively large (50+kg) warheads.
These are some images I've seen from the blast epicentre. There is only a very small crater.
I would say that the visually large blast is more consistent with fuel rather than explosives.
Blast warheads in rockets/bombs are high velocity and create large craters but aren't "fiery" like fuel explosions are (low velocity).
The crater is more like a 122mm rocket but the fiery blast doesn't match. It's possible a rocket or even debris hit some fuel.
It could be the booster section of a Blue Sparrow target ALBM which has a separable payload section. However there is no reported sighting or hearing of impact anywhere in Iraq or Iran of the payload section.
This would make sense as from what we know Blue Sparrow isn't a weapons system and it wouldn't really be able to hit anything. Could just be a very minor demonstration of "we did something"
I don't usually praise Iran's public messaging but everything since Op. True Promise has been spot on. In all levels of govt, military, and foreign ministry.
Crucially for deterrence purposes, Iran has repeatedly promised that Israeli attack in response would not be acceptable.
This is important because it aligns with the int'l consensus that the conflict shouldn't be escalated. So Iran's own deterrence goals are backed by int'l pressure on Israel not to escalate further.
There are numerous examples of the above but other aspects have been positive too
Intentions of strike made clear, will to de-escalate emphasised. This kind of message has been repeated multiple times over the past days to make clear that Iran is not interested in escalation, laying the blame for any future conflict on Israel.