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Analysis/Commentary on Iranian Geopolitical and Military affairs. Founder of Iran GeoMil blog ✍️ Telegram https://t.co/BomJ3F8ECM RT/Follow ≠ Endorsement
Sep 29 7 tweets 3 min read
Israel's assassination of Nasrallah gives us an insight into how they might tackle Iran's nuclear facilities.

Israel used 40-80 BLU-109 "penetrator" JDAMs rather than dedicated bunker busters. F-15s were completely loaded with bombs (7 each) & no external fuel tanks. Image BLU-109s can penetrate approximately 6 ft (1.8m) of concrete. It's unknown how deeply buried Hezbollah HQ was, but it's clear that the Israelis made successive hits at multiple points to penetrate it.

This is clearly a huge effort, but it wouldn't be feasible against Iran...

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Sep 24 5 tweets 2 min read
Reminder to all to be vigilant of the disinformation on both sides during this war, which can take many forms.

5 Examples

1. Journalists posting stories briefed to them by officials on one side, designed to present a particular narrative. An common technique in propaganda wars 2. Fake or old/unrelated videos posted by either side. Designed to exaggerate or minimise the scale of friendly or enemy action, or allege warcrimes. Usually simple clout-chasing, sometimes organised disinfo.

Closely scrutinise every bit of media.
Aug 6 8 tweets 5 min read
Quick note on Shoigu's visit to Tehran yesterday.

Many focused on Shoigu - Secretary of Russia's Security Council and former Defence Minister - and Major General Bagheri, Chief of General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces.

But I thought the entourage was more interesting... Image During the meeting with Bagheri, key Russian officials included Shoigu's deputy Venediktov, and also Dmitry Shugaev. Shugaev is Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, responsible for military-technical cooperation between Russia and foreign countries.
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Jul 27 4 tweets 2 min read
Hezbollah has so far denied that its rockets hit the area in Madjal Shams. We'll see what info comes out but for now I'll say this explosion seems quite large to be from a failed interceptor or anything like that.

Next few hours will decide if there is a wider war or not Image I've seen some say this was a Falaq rocket. Falaqs have relatively large (50+kg) warheads.

These are some images I've seen from the blast epicentre. There is only a very small crater.

I would say that the visually large blast is more consistent with fuel rather than explosives.
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Apr 19 6 tweets 3 min read
These images should be enough to ID whatever crashed in Iraq

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It could be the booster section of a Blue Sparrow target ALBM which has a separable payload section. However there is no reported sighting or hearing of impact anywhere in Iraq or Iran of the payload section.
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Apr 18 4 tweets 2 min read
I don't usually praise Iran's public messaging but everything since Op. True Promise has been spot on. In all levels of govt, military, and foreign ministry.

Crucially for deterrence purposes, Iran has repeatedly promised that Israeli attack in response would not be acceptable. This is important because it aligns with the int'l consensus that the conflict shouldn't be escalated. So Iran's own deterrence goals are backed by int'l pressure on Israel not to escalate further.

There are numerous examples of the above but other aspects have been positive too
Apr 14 6 tweets 5 min read
Thread of missiles used in Iran's 'Operation True Promise' against Israel.

Launch and debris footage/images used. Some stock images for context/understanding.

Full video at end of thread.

1. Emad (liquid-fueled)




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Kheybar-Shekan (solid-fueled)

Note: Distinctive warhead and fin shape

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Apr 14 11 tweets 4 min read
The US is telling Israel to "take the win". Iran is claiming 'Operation True Promise' was a success.

In reality, both sides can claim victory in their own ways.

A thread 🧵 Image Israel's "win" was military-technical in nature. It claims to have destroyed all drones and cruise missiles, while intercepting most - but not all - ballistic missiles.

Israel has one of if not the densest and most advanced anti-ballistic missile coverage in the world.
Nov 21, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
Fattah-1 vs Kheybar-Shekan

The difference between a rocket-powered Hypersonic MaRV and an unpowered MaRV after making heavy manoeuvres.

Same booster, same range, vastly different endgame energy.
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The tweet above is obviously referring to the visible heating on the MaRV, screenshot taken from the below launch and impact video. The MaRV is only really visible for a couple of frames.
Nov 13, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
The Shahed-123 has traditionally been viewed as a puzzling ugly-duckling little brother of the Shahed-129.

But the Parchamdar documentary has revealed a very different story. It in fact holds and important place in Iran's UAV development history.

A thread 🧵 Image The Parchamdar ("flag-bearer") documentary mainly focuses on Shahed aviation industries, which had been handed over a part of Iran's drone activities after development stalled due to a series of crashes and disappointments in the mid-late 90s. Image
Sep 6, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
Why did Iran buy the Yak-130? A thread. 🧵

Hint: it's not because it's a "light attack" plane Image Many have discussed the Yak-130's combat capabilities as a possible reason. But the Yak-130 is unlikely to see much use as a combat aircraft in the IRIAF, which has a host of older and more modern attack aircraft available. Image
Jun 6, 2023 9 tweets 4 min read
Iran has unveiled its 'FATTAH' hypersonic ballistic missile, with a range of 1400km and maximum speed of Mach 15.

Instead of a high-lift HGV, it uses a speed-optimised MaRV with a thrust vectoring sustainer motor.

THREAD Image Before we get onto the MaRV, its pertinent to look at the first-stage booster. From the shape of the fins it looks based on the Kheybar-Shekan. It's launched at an angle (not vertically), implying a quasi-ballistic (mostly in-atmosphere) flight profile.
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Mar 12, 2023 8 tweets 6 min read
First production version of 'Yasin', a twin-engine, subsonic intermediate/advanced trainer rolled out today in Tehran.

The production version has several differences with the initial prototype that show some progress in Iran's aviation industry - THREAD 🧵 The production version has a significant number of external changes since the initial prototype, resulting in an overall sleeker airframe.
Mar 10, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
This is a more significant development than you might think. US+ISR+EU has been for the past 12 months been steadily ramping up economic, informational, diplomatic, even military pressure on Iran, using domestic issues opportunistically. This is a spoiler on those designs. Saudis are not necessarily a proactive actor, more of a facilitator of US/ISR objectives. Normalised ties will make them less receptive to US/ISR requests.

Expect Iran-KSA information war to reduce in intensity and scope
Mar 9, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
Shahid Mahdavi, originally a container ship, now converted to a warship.

Interesting: Has retained original deck for mounting shipping containers.

Indicates this will be a multi-mission ship, with different modules and armament able to be added quickly and easily. ImageImageImageImage So far Iranian shipping container missiles have been Fath/Fateh-class short-range ballistic missiles, and foreign concepts (incl. RU/CH/US) have toyed with different potential uses for this concept. ImageImageImageImage
Feb 8, 2023 8 tweets 5 min read
Oghab-44 airbase's position just ~150km North of Strait of Hormuz makes clear the purpose of this base: to fortify Iran's position in the Strait of Hormuz. Currently the IRIAF's main airbase in the area is Bandar Abbas, which is much more vulnerable to attack. ImageImageImage However, Oghab-44's isolated position means it does not benefit from the SAM protection (excepting S-200 coverage) afforded to Bandar Abbas, the home of the IRIN. It's possible the area will be given better cover once the base is fully operational*. Image
Nov 27, 2022 6 tweets 5 min read
IRIS Sahand has been seen fitted with 4x Sayyad-2/3 launch canisters and an accompanying phased-array FCR to guide them. This increases SAM range from 45km (RIM-66B/Mehrab) to 70-120km. SAM missile load is increased from 2 to 4. ImageImageImage The canisters on Sahand still sport the desert camo, but the erecting arm - which is the same type as used on land-based TELs - is in navy colours. ImageImageImage
Nov 12, 2022 11 tweets 3 min read
In an interview to Mehr News, BG Mehdi Saghafifar has given details about some of the IRIADF's ongoing projects, including a future 400 km SAM system called 'Arman'. Thread 🧵
mehrnews.com/xYQF3 On Arman, he gave a few details:
• 400 km missile range
• 500+ km tracking range
• 600+ km detection range
• "Equivalent but superior to S-400" [assuming this is in role and capability respectively]
Nov 10, 2022 13 tweets 6 min read
IRGC-ASF Commander BG Hajizadeh has told press that Iran has developed a hypersonic missile that can manoeuvre at extremely high speed both inside and outside the atmosphere. He said among its capabilities will be to not just bypass, but target missile defence systems.
#hyperhype He emphasised that the missile will be able to evade both endoatmospheric and exoatmospheric ABM systems, and that it will be able to destroy any target, *especially* ABM systems. He described this as a generational leap that won't be countered for decades.
Nov 6, 2022 26 tweets 13 min read
Iran has unveiled a new version of the Bavar-373's Sayyad-4 missile, the Sayyad-4B. It boasts a +50% improvement in range from 200 km to 300 km. I have updated my article on Bavar-373 accordingly details.
irangeomil.blogspot.com/2019/08/irans-… Here's a video of the test, which was against a Karrar target drone. I had to cut off the end to fit it on twitter, but the reporter said that the IRIADF has said it will continue improving the range of Bavar-373. I just hope they finally put it into production first.
Nov 5, 2022 12 tweets 5 min read
Some interesting things to take away from today's launch of the 3-stage, all solid-fuel Qaem-100 SLV. A thread 🧵 Image The rocket showed high acceleration at launch. This is typical of solid-fuel SLVs, but here it is more pronounced as the launch in question is a sub-orbital test-launch with no word on how much the boilerplate and/or telemetry equipment weighted.