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Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
@DmitryOpines
Aug 20, 2019 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Alright. That went about as expected.

At this stage, the questions are:

a) Does Boris Johnson have another move to make?

if not

b) Is it time for him to announce that absent a miracle change of heart in Brussels, No-Deal is coming;

and if so

c) What does Parliament do?
I think (b) is important, because moving the official government position from:

"We are negotiating to avoid No-Deal, but disaster may strike"

to

"No-Deal is coming, but we can't rule out a miracle"

Sends a clearer signal to business (and the public) of what to prep for.
I know that seems super redundant to the people reading this, but remember not everyone is as very-online as you are.

The government's public position regarding what it anticipates happening matters.

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More from @DmitryOpines

Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Apr 30
1/ One of the common reactions to this was that the WTO rules compel the UK to introduce checks on EU goods.

First, well done everyone on knowing about the WTO and Most Favoured Nation. I'm proud and apologetic in equal measure.

Second, that's not entirely true (in practice).
2/ To oversimplify things, the Most Favoured Nation rule requires that you do not have different rules for different countries.

If your rules state that beef with Mad Cow Disease is not allowed you can't then say that actually Mad Cow Disease is fine as long as it's French.
3/ However, you do have a lot of freedom under the rules to differentiate how you enforce those rules based on your perception of risk.

North Korean toys are more likely to have lead on them than Canadian ones, so you can screen North Korean Transfirmors (tm) more thoroughly.
Read 9 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Apr 29
1/ Thread of random things to keep in mind when reading these and other stories about the border this week as the UK attempts to start actually enforcing its own regulatory checks.

politico.eu/article/uk-bre…
2/ As @AnnaJerzewska points out, the government and the industry wildly disagree about the impact this will have on consumer prices.

Like by a factor of hundreds. 🤷‍♂️

3/ The UK's bringing in checks at the border is a largely unilateral decision. It doesn't have to do this, but is choosing to.

Checks at the border are always about trading greater control for more cost and hassle.

UK is somewhere on that upward arc. Image
Read 14 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Apr 22
1/ Recorded a guide to how I personally would go about challenging seven of the most common arguments against the US sending aid to Ukraine.

Hopefully some of you find it useful.

Will very briefly summarize the counter-arguments I make in this thread.

Arguments addressed:
Image
2/ Ukrainians were fighting before US aid arrived and continued fighting after it paused.

Depriving Ukrainians of hope to drive them to the negotiating table is morally abhorrent.

Putin won't negotiate reasonably if he thinks he can militarily crush an abandoned Ukraine. Image
3/ It's a war of attrition and every shell matters. Russians are taking significant casualties already, with US aid they'll take a lot more.

Prior to the pause in US aid, Russia was on the defensive, now it's made incremental gains. US aid matters. Image
Read 10 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Mar 18
🚨Slightly Mortifying Personal News 🚨

I wrote a book and it's now on pre-sale (link below).

I've spent years yelling at my screen as influential people who can or should know better said wild things about trade to advance their agendas.

This book is my attempt to push back. A book called "Why Politicians Lie About Trade... and What You Need to Know About it" by Dmitry Grozoubinski. The front cover depicts a man in a suit speaking to a crowd from the deck of a laden container ship.
The book will be released on May 23rd of this year, published by @CanburyPress. You can pre-order it below.

It is my attempt to explain trade policy and the choices it involves as I would if anyone were ever dumb enough to ask me over a glass of wine.

canburypress.com/products/why-p…
The book's premise is that trade policy is a growing part of the conversation around issues, from jobs to healthcare and even war that voters actually care about...

... but it's complex and counter-intuitive, so politicians can lie about it with impunity, and that matters.
Read 6 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Nov 5, 2023
1/ I like people and think they're overwhelmingly good and decent.

My default assumption is that whatever the slogans, or extremist elements, the vast majority of the people on the streets are just appalled by the images coming out of Gaza, and are calling for peace.
2/ Has every single person marching got a comprehensive and fool proof 12 point plan for reconciling Palestinian independence, Israeli security, regional geo-stability and the million other factors at play?

No, and that's fine. Marches are about sending signals that we care.
3/ Do I, as a Jew, wish the marchers were a little bit more thoughtful about the implications of some of their messaging?

Sure. I guess.

But it's a mass movement and like all such things, creates its own social incentives for having the spiciest take in the room.
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Oct 28, 2023
1/ International law lacks enforcement because major powers negotiating it did not want mechanisms that could kinetically prevent, curtail or punish the pursuit of their ends, even if the means involved breach the letter or spirit of the law.

They still don't.
2/ What little power international law has is almost entirely normative.

It only matters as long as countries believe it matters - and so for lack of better options we repeat ad nauseum that it does, while also arguing its broad benefits outweigh any specific constraints.
3/ What's infuriating about this is that reinforcing the normative power of international law rhetorically requires a great deal of exaggeration, selective vision and hypocrisy.

To make the case that international law matters we have to ignore all the times it clearly didn't.
Read 6 tweets

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