A few fractures in the base; or partisan asymmetry in evaluations of the president. 1/14
For most of his presidency Trump has enjoyed approval among Republicans in the high 80 percent range. This has been much remarked upon. In Kaiser (@KFF) Health Tracking polls this year (January-April, June-July), Rep approval has been 89, 83, 84, 89, 87 and 85% (no May poll) 2/
@KFF These are impressive numbers. But consider the DISapproval among Democrats for the same period: 94, 88, 89, 88, 88 and 85. Two parties get to play the game, and Democrats disapprove of Trump as much as Republicans approve. 3/
If that were the full story, polarization reigns and the parties are symmetric in their devotion or disgust. All normal. But that isn't the full story. 4/
Approval is usually dichotomized but is often measured in four points-strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove & strongly disapprove. If we consider strength, the story is more complicated. The parties are NOT symmetric in strong approval vs strong disapproval. 5/
Among Republicans in 2019, 65% strongly approved of Trump's handing of his presidency. But among Democrats 80% strongly disapproved. If strength of opinion is motivating, say for turnout in 2020, advantage Dems. 6/
For Republicans, the 65% strong approval was paired with 20% who somewhat approved. That oft cited 85% total approval is a bit fractured. For Dems, 80% strongly disapproved and just 9% somewhat disapproved. Rather unified. 7/
We might mention independents as well. In 2019 39% approved, 52% disapproved, but again strength mattered among Independents: 15% strong approval, 34% strongly disapprove. And 24% somewhat approve vs 18% somewhat disapprove. 8/
Partisanship also varies in strength. (Pooling all 2019 data.) Compare partisans with independents who lean to a party. Again there is asymmetry. 65% of Reps strongly approve vs 80% of Dems who strongly disapprove. And ... 9/
Among Rep leaners 42% strongly approve and 33% somewhat approve. For Dem leaners: 72% strongly disapprove and 16% somewhat disapprove. 10/
Strong approval is 23 points higher among Reps than among Rep leaners. For Dems the gap is modest, 80% of Dems strongly disapprove and 72% of Dem leaners agree, just an 8 point difference. 11/
While Reps are over 85% approving of the president, the ratio of strong-to-some approval is just over 3 to 1. Among Dems, the ratio of strong-to-some DISapproval is 8 to 1. 12/
It seems likely that GOP voters, either partisans or leaners, will find reasons to come home to Trump against a specific Democratic opponent. But there is more need for Republicans to develop a common view of Trump than there is for Dems to unite in opposition. 13/
There are strengths and weaknesses for both parties heading into 2020. But one of the most often cited Trump strengths, an approval with his base Republicans in the high 80s, has some fractures. 14/14
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The indictments of Donald Trump have *not* boosted him in the polls, either for favorability or for his support in the GOP primary. This claim keeps being repeated as if the data support it. It does not.
Trump’s net favorability inched up 1.5-2 points following the first indictment in New York on March 30, 2023, from a median of -14.0 to -12.5, and mean of -14.2 to -12.2. This is the only period of a (slight) improvement compared to the pre-indictment period
Compared to pre-indictment, Trump did have higher support among Republicans in the primary vote following the New York indictment, a median of 49% prior to the NY indictment and 57% after NY but before Florida. There was no further change after Florida or after DC & now 58% But..
DeSantis gains support, now moving up to a tie with Biden among registered voters nationwide. His support has slowly but steadily increased over the year. Biden has remained stable. 15% wish for an alternative to these two. 1/n
Trump continues to trail Biden, by 10 points in this poll. Biden lead has been increasing since March. DeSantis was a point stronger than Trump vs Biden in March & Sept, but now 10 points stronger on margin vs Biden. 2/n
Support for a Trump 2024 bid among Republican registered voters is down, though still at a 55% majority. It was 64% in July. 3/n
notes may account for decline in total vote in 2022.
But also note what a massive growth Dane County accounts for. Fox valley, St. Croix-Eau Claire too. 2/n
Here is Senate vote margin and change in Senate margin by pop density.
Margin is correlated but not overwhelmingly. But change in margin is much more strongly related to density. We saw this in previous thread, but a different look here, explicitly vs density. 3/n
Where turnout rose from 2018 to 2022, GOP did better, Dem did worse.
Turnout change was a net benefit to Johnson & Michels.
Much attention to Milwaukee County, where turnout was down 47,090 from 2018. How much did that matter in Senate race? 1/n
Barnes won MKE county by 40.26%, so if turnout had remained at 2018 level, and Barnes got the same share of those additional votes, he would have picked up 18,959 net votes
Statewide, he lost by 27,407
The MKE turnout would have tightened the race, but not put Barnes ahead 2/n
But you don't get to raise turnout only in your best places. Some counties with lower turnout favored Johnson. Likewise, the counties the increased turnout mostly favored Johnson.
So what if turnout in ALL counties had equaled 2018 turnout while splitting vote as in 2022? 3/n
The current conventional wisdom is for the midterm to be somewhat better than average for the president's party in the House. (I set aside the Senate here.) The fundamentals doubt that, as we'll see. 1/n
The "fundamentals" provide a helpful baseline, even if "non-fundamentals" such as polling, candidate quality, unique issues, may modify that baseline. So let's only look at historical relationships here. 2/n
The starting point is that Democrats currently hold 220 seats in the House, Republicans have 212 and 3 seats are vacant. 218 seats are the minimal majority with no vacancies. 2 of the vacancies were held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican, so call it 222-113 now. 3/n