Just as in the US we have a Government inventing a parallel reality run according to different rules to those in the real world. It convinces some people. But fails when meeting reality. Which is why Trump hasn't completed any trade deals, and the Irish backstop is necessary.
This is about the US and China, but it could be about the UK and EU. And the rest of the article on the future UK-US relationship, by an eminent US expert, is well worth reading csis.org/analysis/brexi…
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Welcome to US tariff day during which a lot will be written and most of it won't be quite right. What we know - the US will impose arbitrary ("reciprocal" only in name) tariffs on most or all goods entering the country, on top of others already announced. 1/n
US tariffs are being imposed because President Trump likes tariffs. There is no economic logic. There are many stated reasons including encouraging US manufacturing, narrowing the trade deficit, due to unfairness of others, and raising revenue. None are convincing.
Tariffs will harm the US economy. All reputable economists will agree to this. As with any populist leader, some individuals will seek preferment over reputation. These tariffs will also be contrary to WTO rules, and trade deals the US including Trump previously signed.
My morning has been pemmed. Which is fine, I've advocated for the UK joining, talked to relevant folk in the EU, heard businesses who it could help, etc. Problem is - this should be completely obvious. Every country in the region is a member. Why is it so hard for the UK?
Leavers don't care about PEM. Few businesses will lose, far more will gain. Third countries like Switzerland and Morocco want the UK to join. Yes nobody knows for sure why we didn't previously join, or why it isn't a priority now.
Until the UK does the obvious stuff like PEM, forget having a meaningful trade policy still less any meaningful EU reset. Got to take the baby steps first...
What you seem unlikely to read elsewhere - yesterday's Starmer - von der Leyen meeting was successful, and had the right outcome - a commitment to regular ongoing summits, and joint working to prepare them.
To those complaining about the UK's lack of detail - a lazy, uninformed complaint. The EU doesn't (yet) have a mandate, the UK doesn't (yet) need to have all the asks. Both need to come in time. That will be the test of the next few months, now was not the time. As was agreed.
Those saying this is going nowhere until the UK implements everything in full, that message was received and @NickTorfaen explicitly said this at an EU reception at Labour Conference. Labour's messaging hasn't been perfect to date, it has though been good enough.
Three days in Brussels mostly talking UK-EU relations after the elections with various folk on all sides, but also hard to get away from US-EU-China talk, or concerns about the direction of travel for the EU. So what were my top 10 findings? Settle down for a thread 🧵
1 - though far from top priority, the EU will happily engage with the UK. There's interest in what a new government will do. But they also expect their own interests - recently youth mobility, and fishing - to be taken seriously. Where there's overlap - security - expect progress
2 - the UK has to prepare for a really tough ongoing engagement with the EU. This will not be a single negotiation but a series of small encounters, mini-deals, cooperations etc. Unless Labour red lines change. A new narrative for the relationship - but only in part.
Like it or not, we are stuck for a while in the technocratic realities of international relations when it comes to UK-EU relations. I'd expect there to be a time when that changes, when there's a rejuvenated campaign for rejoining, but not for a while.
Why are the technocratic realities of international relations not a hot topic in the General Election?
Asked nobody, for good reason. Not that UK-EU relations won't be important to various policy issues. But hardly top-ticket politics.
Today's big trade news - that the EU will apply additional tariffs of around 25% on Chinese made Electric Vehicles, on the basis that they have benefitted from illegal subsidies. This comes as a result of furious lobbying for higher or lower figures. ft.com/content/0545ed…
The US has imposed higher Chinese EV tariffs, without specific justification, and it was suggested 50% was needed in the EU to remove cost advantage. But some or more of this is natural competitive advantage from far earlier investment. The EU was looking as ever for a balance.
My suspicion has long been that China was broadly aware that politically the EU had to act, and that a 15-20% tariff on EV they were prepared to bear though with some retaliation because that's what happens in such cases. The furious lobbying came against much higher figures.