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Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
@chigrl
Aug 20, 2019 • 7 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Fun thread: commodities trading dates back to the Samaritans.. somewhere between 4500 and 4000 BCE
Modern futures markets started in England in the 16th century (huge gap in time)
Then in 1848 the modern day futures market that you know now..started in Chicago
Its started with wheat..so farmers and dealers could meet at a central place...this soon expended to other commodities
This marketplace exploded! A place where farmers could forward sell to lock in prices in case of adverse conditions...the birth of the modern day hedge
For instance, the farmer would agree with the dealer on a price to deliver to him 5,000 bushels of wheat at the end of June. The bargain suited both parties. The farmer knew how much he would be paid for his wheat, and the dealer knew his costs
Today the exchange has morphed into a speculators playground ...but we should not forget the reason the futures markets were created for, because these principles hold true today. END

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More from @chigrl

Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Feb 11
On CRE🧵 Image
CRE credit makes up more than 40% of some lenders’ loan books and the Fed is working with community and regional banks with concentrated exposures to commercial property. That includes coming up with a plan to work through expected losses, chairman Jerome Powell on 60 Minutes Image
An additional complicating factor for lenders in the US is the amount of CRE lending that was interest-only, at least for mortgages bundled into bonds Image
Read 5 tweets
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Oct 8, 2022
While I am on a rant... let's talk about Venezuela

Latest headline last week:

US Looks to Ease Venezuela Sanctions, Enabling Chevron to Pump Oil
First Venezuela produces about 700K bbd ..down from 3.5M at the height. This is tragic. That said, most of VZ oil is now going to China to pay down debts. Image
US proposal is that by lifting some sanctions, $CVE can begin producing again in the country. After years of neglect and political turmoil,you have to ask yourself if $CVE is willing to spend billions there to upgrade facilities when the political situation is in flux
Read 5 tweets
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Sep 3, 2022
VERY short thread on UK energy market & why retail customer prices are exploding so much more than EU

How the UK electricity market is set up, is the major problem (it is different than the EU). It's a broken market model. 1/4
UK retail consumers get gas and electricity from suppliers who buy energy in the wholesale market and then sell it to the public. The idea was that you could choose your supplier and it was easy to switch between them if you could find a better deal.
But, the problem is that most of these retail energy providers are not actual energy producers, but rather intermediaries. When wholesale costs ballooned over 250%, over half of these smaller companies went bankrupt. This forced millions onto the books of larger companies.
Read 5 tweets
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Aug 2, 2022
Munich Municipal Law Library ..additions welcome for the most beautiful libraries on the planet Image
Trinity Library, Dublin, Ireland Image
Peles Castle, Romania Image
Read 4 tweets
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Jul 12, 2022
Here it comes>>

Long Beach container backlog crosses red line as delays mount

Long Beach just crossed a red line. The number of import containers sitting on Long Beach terminals for nine days or more is now higher than it was on Oct. 28, 2021
freightwaves.com/news/long-beac…
👇
Port of Los Angeles Kicks Off Peak Season with Record June gcaptain.com/port-of-los-an…
Hate to tell you I told you so ..but....

#supplychains just took a year step bavk > Rail Congestion Threatens Nationwide Logjam, LA's Seroka Says gcaptain.com/rail-congestio…
Read 5 tweets
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Jun 28, 2022
Recession fears have been the overriding factor last couple of months. We have the Fed hiking into an already slowing economy. GDP NowCast is forecasting 0% growth for Q2 and we are already seeing signs of softness in the labor and housing markets. 1/n
As many times as Powell says that he believes we can have a soft landing, the broader markets obviously do not believe him…..
As a side note, we are seeing a bounce here end of the month with re-balance. Roughly $100B of US equities must be net purchased over the last five trading days of the month. with ~$59B of expected inflows and this into a backdrop of negative dealer gamma
Read 9 tweets

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