Matt Grossmann Profile picture
Aug 21, 2019 4 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Voters now conceptualize politics at higher levels, with more listing ideological concepts or at least 3 policy issues (wonks) in ANES likes/dislikes of the parties/candidates

Marty Wattenberg, The Changing Nature of Mass Belief Systems
In 2016, Republicans (especially Trump voters) were less likely than usual to be coded as ideologues & Democrats (especially Sanders voters) were more likely to be ideologues, drastically reducing the partisan asymmetry

Marty Wattenberg data #APSA2019
2 processes for increasing partisan-ideological sorting:
-Ideologues & wonks are becoming more sorted (below)
- Everyone is becoming less likely to be mis-sorted

Increasing educational attainment can account for 1/2 of the effect

Wattenberg #APSA2019
2016 had real primary divides, with Rep ideologues less supportive of Trump & Dem ideologues more supportive of Sanders

When partisan rhetoric changes, voters' conceptualizations do somewhat as well
Wattenberg #APSA2019
4/4 Great project

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More from @MattGrossmann

Jan 2
Our new paper "Building Back with Partial Praise: Public Opinion on the Biden Agenda" for #SPSA2024

Build Back Better's modest popularity was mostly but not entirely a product of mixed views on its provisions. The Inflation Reduction Act was more…
The eventual law (IRA) was more popular than BBB while it was being debated. Describing BBB only with Biden & name was less popular than outlining its provisions, but not after voters evaluated provisions. Provision information did not affect IRA opinion.…
Support for both BBB & IRA was higher when voters supported more of their provisions. But voters appeared to hold BBB to a higher standard, needing to support most of its provisions to support the package as a whole…
Read 4 tweets
May 9, 2023
Biden is not preparing to act alone & default is very unlikely, as is a long-term clean debt limit lift. Whatever the posturing, we are mostly waiting on the terms of Dems' concessions. That likely includes budget caps & more. We may get no hints today but structure is mostly set
Potential but not probable hints today would include:
1) assignment of people to spearhead budget caps dissuasion
2) Dem comments on Rep concessions with varying degrees of disdain (eg non-starter vs we can work on)
3) talk of debt limit extension timing with further budget talks
Possible Dems may be able to delay concessions (or give some now & more later), but won't get limit past election without concessions. Even (unlikely) unilateral action would really be a delay; they'd still be negotiating under threat:
Read 6 tweets
Nov 17, 2022
State government policy becomes consistent with state public opinion as conservative & liberal states elect Republican & Democratic officials & as officials adjust policy to public opinion

Highly recommend Dynamic Democracy by @cwarshaw & @DevinCaughey…
State public opinion has grown more liberal over the long-term on racial issues, more liberal over the short term on cultural issues, & moved up & down on economic issues after a move right… Image
State public policy has grown consistently more liberal on economic & cultural policies over time, but states have begun to diverge more in recent years & to be relatively more liberal or conservative based on their partisanship & public opinion… Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 12, 2022
Highly recommend “The Bitter End” by @johnmsides @vavreck @CTausanovitch
on the 2020 election, a campaign where not much changed opinions despite lots of big news…

Here is the relatively stable horse race & consistent Biden favorability advantage
The primary race was, by the end, less stable. But Biden & Sanders drew most coverage & public support for most of the campaign. & Biden won with a similar coalition as Clinton: older & more partisan voters & Black voters

The Bitter End…
Biden was judged ideologically closer to Dem voters. But many voters weren’t judging candidates ideologically. Only 52% placed both candidates & had Sanders to left of Biden; 21% saw no difference: 10% reversed it; rest couldn’t place

The Bitter End…
Read 6 tweets
Sep 23, 2022
Americans increasingly perceive important differences between the parties

Fun new @electionstudies charts:…
Americans increasingly perceive the Republican Party as the more conservative party but some Americans remain ideologically confused…
Americans are also reporting more frequent conversations about politics since Trump, with only 9% of Americans saying they are not talking at all about politics with friends or family
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21, 2022
When Information About Candidates Persuades Voters

New @NiskanenCenter #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with @j_kalla & @cantstopkevin

Voters still change their partisan vote choice in response to information & do take signals of candidate quality…
@NiskanenCenter @j_kalla @cantstopkevin Testing 100s of messages on 1000s of voters in the 2020 presidential election, voters can be persuaded, especially with specific information about Biden:…
Even Republicans change their vote choice, suggesting that campaign information can shift votes:
@NiskanenCenter @j_kalla @cantstopkevin & more high quality candidates, like those endorsed by newspapers, are still winning at high rates & getting more votes; it's just been obscured by mostly uncompetitive elections:…
Read 4 tweets

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