Nicole Sykes Profile picture
Aug 21, 2019 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Been thinking a lot about tariffs this week.

Because we’ve been on a journey with tariffs right? (1/9)
They were kind of the first thing people understood were economically bad in Brexit. We’ve had the pretty huge offer of zero for zero tariffs in an FTA early on, the curveball of the no deal tariff schedule and the Article XX1V nonsense, all set against the US-China drama (2/9)
And the arguments are so well-rehearsed I could vomit with boredom.

“The average EU tariff is only 3%!”
“Yeah but on food it’s 22%”
“Tariffs don’t apply to services, IT, medicines”
“But they do apply to 90% of our goods exports by value”
“They’ll be offset by the exchange rate"
And of course, my personal favourite:
“We’ll scrap tariffs on all imports to reduce prices for consumers.”
“That’ll destroy our manufacturing industry. You’ll literally said that, yourself, outloud, with your mouth, and also on paper.” (4/9)
But the reason it’s on my mind this week comes from @CBITweets no deal tour, and the 6 roundtables we’ve held in the last 48 hours. It’s come up A LOT. And I mean… A surprising amount given where we are (5/9)
@CBItweets We’ve all fallen so far into the detail, of sector-specific regulations, of REACH registrations and Single Administrative Documents and equivalence of various sorts and AEOs and notified bodies... But a bunch of companies have taken us back to basics this week (6/9)
@CBItweets It's this basic.

For the business selling clothes, a tariff of 12% will tip it into losses.
For the materials company that’s calculated tariff costs of £1.5million, it'll halve its profit margin of £3million (7/9)
@CBItweets For the leather firm, a 6.5% tariff will wipe out their profit margin.
For the automotive company, a 10% tariff will wipe out its 3% profit margin.

That basic. Before you add anything else (8/10)
@CBItweets So sure, it’s not always the most important issue for a lot of companies (lest we forget, if UK exporters face just half the non-tariff barriers US firms do trading with the EU, it’ll cost the equivalent of a 6.5% tariff on average) (9/10)
@CBItweets But we can all agree that casually wiping out companies’ profit margins is… not great right?
Because it makes giving pay rises and employing more people... not super easy?
I’m still so baffled that this is something we seem to be willingly choosing to do (10/10)

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More from @NicoleSykes_

Aug 7, 2022
Trusted, purpose-driven, agile, community-focused - there are reasons why charities are great at supporting people.
But we should worry about the sustainability of the charity sector as it is now, facing into the cost of living crisis and recession (1/4) ft.com/content/4a1c48…
Worry 1⃣: Financial sustainability
As this chart shows, public donations to charity roughly track consumer confidence. Which is in the 🚽
Longterm, we've seen the sector rely on a shrinking donor pool. The % of the UK pop. giving regularly fell from 32% in 2000 to 26% in 2018 2/4
Worry 2⃣: Geographical distribution
As a rule, charities, the infrastructure which supports them, money and volunteers, are less readily available in the places which need them most. As @Gus_ODonnell says in @pmdfoster's piece:
(More on this here probonoeconomics.com/the-geography-… ) 3/4
Read 4 tweets
May 24, 2022
I read the government’s evidence review of community initiatives so you don’t have to!
If community infrastructure and social capital is your thing, this is for you (and maybe see you at #Restitch later??)
If it's not your thing but could be, there are diagrams to help! 1/
Quick context. The Levelling Up WP set out the economic theory behind levelling up – that you need to leverage 6 kinds of capital to achieve your goals or risk communities falling into a viscous spiral of decline they can’t escape 2/ (read this for more) civilsocietycommission.org/essay/inclusiv…
But while innovation, infrastructure, skills & financial capital are very comfortable areas for policymakers (build a bridge, costs this much, here's your benefits), social capital is more of a “sorry what?” concept.
Hence the lit review. Gov's working out the answer to that q 3/
Read 19 tweets
Nov 21, 2021
Was honestly infuriating to work on this review of the costs the Home Office creates for itself and other government departments by making so many wrong initial decisions on asylum applications, and taking such a long time to do so (1/) 🧵
Of the 14,600 initial asylum applications the Home Office rejects each year, 11,500 lodge appeals and around 3,700 of those appeals are successful. So mistakes have been made in the initial process.
Now if I made 3,700 mistakes each year, I’d be fired but... (2/)
So 🎯Key Point A : those mistakes cost £££.
Direct costs to Home Office admin of ~£4m a year

Many times to that to HM Courts and Tribunals Service

Legal aid (though this is complex and v limited) (3/)
Read 10 tweets
Dec 26, 2020
✅UK has taken back control
✅EU has protected the integrity of the (now smaller) single market
🤷‍♀️But business has been the awkward teen caught in the divorce.
So bring the leftovers and let’s figure out what this deal means for an A-Z of some of our leading sectors shall we? 1/
✈️Aerospace
So this industry obvs v. worried about reality of customs, but also departure from the EU agency EASA.
This is the first annex I read in full. And it feels like the negotiating teams have pulled off a pretty impressive job here, forging a process to allow 2/
recognition of certificates issued by each other’s agencies. Way beyond anything in CETA. Starts with airworthiness, with the potential to be expanded to include things like pilots training. So going backwards to build up again. But certainly beat my expectation. Points.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7, 2020
As we twiddle our thumbs waiting for white smoke from Brussels, this prompted me to reflect on how badly business lost this game. Deal or not, whatever emerges, whenever it emerges, will be a million miles from what business hoped for. How did it go so badly wrong? 🧵(1/)
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve been told over the last 5yrs that it’s because business wasn’t loud enough. 1st during the referendum (though post-🗳️ analysis tends to agree the economic argument was won, it just wasn’t important enough). 2nd during the negotiations (2/)
I’ve said a lot about this in the past, ultimately - yes biz could have been louder. But there are many reasons why they weren’t.
And volume really isn't everything. Any lobbyist knows that you’re only loud when you’re already losing. It’s a symptom, not a cause, of loss (3/)
Read 15 tweets
Nov 23, 2020
I know, I know. A lot of news today. But gimme like… 70% of your attention for 2mins.

We know that charities have seen a buttload of additional demand this year. 55% tell @probonoecon they may not be able to service it all. But where’s it coming from? This gives us a clue (1/)
Charities like @DeafBlindUK make up some of the 19% seeing more demand from their existing clients as they help them literally navigate the pandemic.
For them, it's mostly the first kind of demand we've identified - direct Covid consequences such as loneliness, isolation etc (2/)
Then, sure, there are crisis spillover effects. Foodbanks are definitely making up some of the 39% with existing service users needing more help AND new people coming to them.

But (SPOILERS) there are 3 other kinds of demand charities are facing we should pay attention to (3/)
Read 11 tweets

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