Sigh. OK, so my 2c on the 1619 project. It seems like most of the disagreement is two sides talking past each other (surprise). 1/
Conservatives are largely talking about the rollout theme, that 1619 is the actual founding of America. Libs are talking about the essays, which . . . don't always do such a great job of supporting the rollout theme. 2/
Like, from the essays I've read, the actual theme is more "slavery and race are really important, and touches aspects of America in ways you wouldn't think about." Some are more radical than others, but for an example. 3/
the Kevin Kruse essay on traffic in Atlanta probably shouldn't be all that controversial on its own terms. There's not a whole lot of doubt that racial considerations played a large role in how interstates were laid out, 4/
although, as with most things, that is tied in with other concerns like class, land cost, preserving traditional neighborhood integrity, etc. Also not too controversial that race plays a role in public transportation; see, e.g., the lack of a metro stop in Georgetown. 5/
I also very much doubt that Kruse blames Atlanta traffic on slavery. It might affect the specific form traffic takes and some of the severity, but traffic congestion is pretty much the norm in cities of Atlanta's size. So why would people interpret it that way? 6/
I come back to the framing. The Times rollout suggested an argument that slavery is the most important factor in America, so the priors were set a certain way. I think by-and-large the essays didn't even try to deliver on that, but I do think that's why we're where we are. 7/7
(it didn't help that a lot of these contentions are controversial, and only one side was presented, but I don't think its inherently problematic for a magazine to do a symposium with an express point of view) 7/8
A friend suggests that this is an urban legend, which is almost too bad.
One more thing about Platner being a butt about dropping out, dictating terms (yeah, another Platner post, but important). I'm surprised that people aren't recognizing this, given that it's such an obsession on the left and so on-the-nose here: Power. Dropping out is submitting.
People are like "he can't win and we'll show it to him." SO WHAT. Have you actually read ANY of those books you go on about? I have, and despite massive problems, they have real insight. Guess what, all "he can't win" means is that he's going to lose no matter what. 2/
And so the thought process, conscious or unconscious, for the type of guy who keeps his Nazi tattoo, (allegedly) rapes his girlfriend after they're done, (allegedly) stalks his ex-girlfriend, locks her in a room when she tries to leave, is not "well, guess the game is up." 3/
Before going on the Court, Barrett had an influential article to the effect of "How do you do originalism after 100 years of a non- or anti-originalist Court?" Not the actual title. Slaughter (and the tariffs case) illustrates the difficulty of this dilemma nicely. 1/
Slaughter seems, on its face, obviously correct, and more-or-less consistent with the way the Court interpreted the law through 1930. The executive gets to oversee implementation of laws, and gets to oversee personnel in the executive branch. 2/
Except where the Constitution limits the exec. by requiring Senate approval. And people sort of understood the idea that one of the dangers of expanding the federal government's powers was that the executive would implement it; he became more powerful as well. 3/
So I thought it was sufficiently clear from the first sentence that I don't buy into the LA fraud story, but apparently not. I don't, which means there's not much interesting to say about it, but I do have one important thing on the Washington Times story and its statistics. 1/
Almost all statistical analysis you'll see in popular print has an assumption embedded that you're sampling evenly from the same distribution. Think of it this way: If you're doing a poll of Texas, you only want to poll Texans. If you accidentally mix in people from RI, 2/
You're mixing in apples and oranges. Most of our math follows from this. Or, if you want to get more basic about it, we assume you're sampling from a bag of skittles, where things are more-or-less random, not from a Snickers bar. 3/
Given that @jaycost and I are doing a presidential ratings podcast (among other things -- check out @aei_STpodcast!), I hate to get ahead of myself but: FDR is genuinely a God Tier president. I say this as someone libertarian-ish, so I don't really *want* to. But it's true. 1/
People underestimate how grim things were on March 4, 1933. The Depression wasn't a single event: It was a slow moving cascade of disasters, with plateus in between. 1932 was a sort of plateau, until the end, when another series of bank failures hit. 2/
This was probably the worst of them. Other crises like late '30, early '31-'32, were bad, but this one was nationwide and catastrophic. Understand this: ***When FDR took over, the financial collapse was accelerating***. After we'd already lost a quarter of GDP. 3/
I read @chrislhayes "Twilight of the Elites" book for an upcoming book project and it's extremely good -- it is a shame it was overlooked. One concept from it hit hard: The idea of fractal success. There may be a few overachievers in my timeline so read on. Hayes idea grows 1/
from a trip to Davos.He relates that when you go, you're excited to be among the movers and shakers, and you get off the plane and you're greeted by nice people who give you swag and escort you to your bus that takes you into the Swiss mountains. But as you deplane you notice 2/
there's another group who flew first class. They get greeted by people in red coats, and get escorted to private cars. Suddenly, you aren't so special. Later you learn that there was another, smaller tier above them, who come in on private jets and take helicopter rides. 3/
People are going to react strongly to this comparison, so I really do mean this narrowly. But when you read about first 100 days of the New Deal, you hear about Congress just being totally overwhelmed with new legislation and orders, things being broken or rebuilt every day. 1/
I wonder if the sense was the same as we are feeling today (and yes, a lot of people ((mostly) Southern) Democrats and Republicans alike, were concerned FDR was trying to make himself a dictator). That's not (at all) to predict this will be as successful as the New Deal 2/
or that it will be remembered nearly as fondly. That's just the only time I can think of where so many things have been blown up so radically quickly in politics. 3/3