Sigh. OK, so my 2c on the 1619 project. It seems like most of the disagreement is two sides talking past each other (surprise). 1/
Conservatives are largely talking about the rollout theme, that 1619 is the actual founding of America. Libs are talking about the essays, which . . . don't always do such a great job of supporting the rollout theme. 2/
Like, from the essays I've read, the actual theme is more "slavery and race are really important, and touches aspects of America in ways you wouldn't think about." Some are more radical than others, but for an example. 3/
the Kevin Kruse essay on traffic in Atlanta probably shouldn't be all that controversial on its own terms. There's not a whole lot of doubt that racial considerations played a large role in how interstates were laid out, 4/
although, as with most things, that is tied in with other concerns like class, land cost, preserving traditional neighborhood integrity, etc. Also not too controversial that race plays a role in public transportation; see, e.g., the lack of a metro stop in Georgetown. 5/
I also very much doubt that Kruse blames Atlanta traffic on slavery. It might affect the specific form traffic takes and some of the severity, but traffic congestion is pretty much the norm in cities of Atlanta's size. So why would people interpret it that way? 6/
I come back to the framing. The Times rollout suggested an argument that slavery is the most important factor in America, so the priors were set a certain way. I think by-and-large the essays didn't even try to deliver on that, but I do think that's why we're where we are. 7/7
(it didn't help that a lot of these contentions are controversial, and only one side was presented, but I don't think its inherently problematic for a magazine to do a symposium with an express point of view) 7/8
A friend suggests that this is an urban legend, which is almost too bad.
Given that @jaycost and I are doing a presidential ratings podcast (among other things -- check out @aei_STpodcast!), I hate to get ahead of myself but: FDR is genuinely a God Tier president. I say this as someone libertarian-ish, so I don't really *want* to. But it's true. 1/
People underestimate how grim things were on March 4, 1933. The Depression wasn't a single event: It was a slow moving cascade of disasters, with plateus in between. 1932 was a sort of plateau, until the end, when another series of bank failures hit. 2/
This was probably the worst of them. Other crises like late '30, early '31-'32, were bad, but this one was nationwide and catastrophic. Understand this: ***When FDR took over, the financial collapse was accelerating***. After we'd already lost a quarter of GDP. 3/
I read @chrislhayes "Twilight of the Elites" book for an upcoming book project and it's extremely good -- it is a shame it was overlooked. One concept from it hit hard: The idea of fractal success. There may be a few overachievers in my timeline so read on. Hayes idea grows 1/
from a trip to Davos.He relates that when you go, you're excited to be among the movers and shakers, and you get off the plane and you're greeted by nice people who give you swag and escort you to your bus that takes you into the Swiss mountains. But as you deplane you notice 2/
there's another group who flew first class. They get greeted by people in red coats, and get escorted to private cars. Suddenly, you aren't so special. Later you learn that there was another, smaller tier above them, who come in on private jets and take helicopter rides. 3/
People are going to react strongly to this comparison, so I really do mean this narrowly. But when you read about first 100 days of the New Deal, you hear about Congress just being totally overwhelmed with new legislation and orders, things being broken or rebuilt every day. 1/
I wonder if the sense was the same as we are feeling today (and yes, a lot of people ((mostly) Southern) Democrats and Republicans alike, were concerned FDR was trying to make himself a dictator). That's not (at all) to predict this will be as successful as the New Deal 2/
or that it will be remembered nearly as fondly. That's just the only time I can think of where so many things have been blown up so radically quickly in politics. 3/3
The move to allow podcasters and bloggers into the Press Corps is part of a broader shift on the Right, that really starts with @elonmusk's acquisition of X. Before that, when conservatives complained about bias and censorship on social media, the left/lib response 1/
was "well go ahead and build your own social media site." Which everyone knew was very difficult. And then there would be moves to get whoever hosted the new site to refuse to host it and the response would be "well build your own hosting platform" and so forth. 2/
Musk's acquisition of Twitter/X really looks increasingly like an important turning point in the conservative approach, which in the face of this became "well what can you do?" It was a realization "no, actually we can take these institutions and make them ours." 3/
To understand the Right re J6: They believe that the reason the dividing line between J6 getting prosecuted and, say, Portland rioters not is because norms are set by liberals to protect liberal ingroups while allowing the prosecution of outgroups. 1/
This is also the dividing line between Trumpy populists and GOP establishment types; the latter says "well we should prosecute the goons in OR too" while the former says that is hopelessly naive bc, again, the lines are set by liberals to protect their ingroups. 2/
This isn't a defense of the populists at all. This is just to explain the "burn it down" mindset: "it" is a rigged game with rules set by liberals. If this sounds like left critiques of the past decade, well, it's why we're getting this horseshoe effect of, say, RFK & Trump. 3/3
So there's been a lot of talk about Justice Barrett and Supreme Court ideology in general, which happened to occur as I'm getting a paper on Supreme Court ideology ready for publishing. The answer, unsurprisingly, is Justice Barrett is no Souter (much less Stevens). 1/
This relies on a computer program that looks at the frequency with which justices vote with which other. It then uses these pairs to rank Justices by ideology and to estimate where the ideological fissures on the Court are. Here's where things stood in 2016-18. 2/
This should be familiar to anyone with a passing acquaintance with the Court. You have the four libs, with a divide between Ginsburg/Sotomayor and Kagan/Breyer, a BIG divide, and then the conservative justices. Note that I pool terms together to smooth out noise. 3/