Sean T at RCP Profile picture
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Jan 2 9 tweets 2 min read
On supposed conservative hypocrisy re Gay (setting aside whether plagiarism really =s "canceling") there's a deep split among conservatives going back to the (highly consequential, in hindsight) @DavidAFrench vs. @SohrabAhmari fight. Rufo, Linsday and Gov. DeSantis 1/ are clearly in the Ahmari camp. That camp basically boils down to "if they want a war, we'll give them a war good and hard." There's no hypocrisy there. They're clear that they're coming for lefties, even if it means losing some conservatives in the process. 2/
Dec 14, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
The biggest re-alignment of the last 100 yrs -- the sudden movement of Black voters from Republicans to Democrats -- caught both parties utterly flat-footed in 1936. In some ways it made no sense: Democrats still had segregationists throught their party. 1/ But for most, the economic issues trumped the social issues (interestingly, wealthier Blacks stayed Republican until the 1960s). Rs didn't fully appreciate those voters weren't coming back until the 60s. Italians flipped R in 1940 because of a speech FDR gave. 2/
Dec 13, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
I've been saying this over and over again, but: This is why inflation is so destructive to presidencies. With unemployment, overwhelming # of people are still employed, lots of unemployed expect to get hired back, etc. When you get your job, it's largely done. 1/ Inflation is different. People at all income levels notice it, whether it's the $10 happy meal or the $150 Outback delivery or [whatever good someone really rich buys and notices, I don't know]. 2/
Dec 11, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
So I finally had the time to sit down and look at the questions below the headline in that WSJ poll and, um . . . wow.

s.wsj.net/public/resourc… Trump has double digit leads on being able to best handle the economy, inflation, crime, securing the border, the Ukraine War, and the Israeli conflict. Biden has a double digit lead on abortion rights. Everything else is single digits which sounds good except . . . 1/
Aug 9, 2023 14 tweets 3 min read
Today is my son Judson's 16th Birthday. Sixteen years ago, I thought about how on today we'd drive together to the DMV, get his driver's license, and how proud I'd be of him for passing, and frankly myself for teaching him how to drive, the way my Dad taught me and his him. 1/ That's not how today is going. Judd was diagnosed with autism at age 2.5. At the time, his doctor said he just had a "touch" of autism. I viewed it as a roadbump. To the extent I'm smart, it isn't in a traditional way, it's in a "think way outside the box" way. 2/
Jun 10, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
I continue to hold to the position that we should not prosecute former presidents or candidates for the presidency except in extreme circumstances. I thought the NY indictment fell far short of that threshold. This one is different. Basically, it is true the president shouldn't be above the law. If Trump had actually shot someone on Fifth Avenue, yes, he should have been prosecuted. If they had found hookers buried in the basement of Trump Tower -- which would not have surprised me -- indict.
Jun 9, 2023 10 tweets 2 min read
So I think people are being a bit cavalier in the takes on the AL decision being Roberts and Kavanaugh afraid of running afoul of public opinion with the VRA. Justices really do cast sincere votes from time-to-time, and this case wasn't as cut-and-dried as some thought. 1/ In particular, the notion that stare decisis is much stronger in statutory cases than constitutional ones is real, and long-standing. Where there isn't a central constitutional argument, it isn't surprising that these justices might look askance at modifying Gingles. 2/
May 16, 2023 10 tweets 3 min read
I went ahead and clicked on one of those "AI generated these iconic movie stars from descriptions" things from Facebook, and some of them aren't so bad. Lara Croft has an eye infection, but otherwise is believable. Others, however . . . Image I might even identify "AI Wednesday" without being told who it is! But . . . Image
Nov 17, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
Now that the ballots are mostly counted, my take on what happened
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/… I think it's important to realize that, in a system based on districts that elect one member, votes don't always translate directly to seats for a party. In fact, there are years where the relationship of votes and seats is outright inverted (1976, 1988, 1998, 2004).
Nov 10, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read
On the uncontested House races, it is obviously proper to try to estimate vote totals for those seats. It's weird that people are suddenly super keyed in on this known-for-decades-but-always-ignore-issue, but whatevs. There are 10R uncontested and 2D. BUT . . . 1/ there are also 6 races in CA where Rs didn't make the runoff. This meant that you get vote totals out of here for 12 D candidates and no R candidates. Finally, of those 10R races, 2 of the states (FL and LA) count no votes at all, meaning it actually hurts R vote totals. 2/
Nov 10, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read
One of the quiet stories under the hood is that Republicans are looking like they'll win the popular vote. Probably a popular vote swing of 5% (depending on how CA votes work out), swinging about 2% of the chamber. IOW, the generic polls are likely to be about spot on. Why? 1/ An easy story is uncontested seats; there were about 8 more GOP uncontested than Democrats. But in some of those, they don't count any votes, so it net hurts the GOP. And there are seats where two Democrats ran against each other, so Ds double dip. 2/
Nov 9, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
It's pretty hard, at this point, to imagine how Rs take the Senate. In fact, Ds picking up a seat seems more likely right now. Look, polling errors tend to be correlated. It's weird that Rs are doing about what we expected in NC/WI/OH given other stuff, but running behind in AZ/PA/GA -- not a great sign. The path is win NV and then win a runoff in GA which . . . maybe it happens? I guess?
Nov 8, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read
Basic take on the Senate: There are 5 true tossups, with a handful of states on the periphery. Most of the R states have broken away in the last couple of weeks. So, for example, Budd v. Beasley might have been an upset pick, but it is going the wrong way. 1/ Laxalt v. Cortez Masto is one that I think a lot of people assumed a month ago was on the NC race trajectory, but Laxalt's momentum stalled early. Early vote isn't what he wants to see, but we also don't know how Indies are voting this time. Thought it would tilt, but pure TU. 2/
Nov 8, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read
My basic view of this election hasn’t changed over the cycle; it’s the same frame I carry into every election: they are referenda on the party in power, not choices. 1/ And presidential job approval is a great predictor of things, although it is bounded (eg eventually you rise to partisan who will never vote for you or dip into those who always will). 2/
Nov 6, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Book titles/reviews get lots of attention from people who don't read books but want to sound smart. Emerging Democratic Majority isn't a "Democrats will rule for 30 years b/c demographics book," it's a "coalition is emerging that, if Ds govern carefully, will help them" book. 1/ But because of the title/reviews, the former interpretation took over. Which brings me to "What's the Matter with Kansas." The thesis of that book isn't that voters in Kansas are rubes who confuse social issues with their best interest. 2/
Oct 31, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Since Twitter seems reasonably likely to go away in the next couple of years, my 2c: Obvs the site is miserable, but there's an entire generation of top-notch young analysts like @JMilesColeman who probably would have gone unnoticed but for Twitter. 1/ For me, it is/was a way to get on the radar screens of the truly big accounts and network with people even though I don't live in DC. Of course, there's a lot of clickbait-y analysts who owe their careers to Twitter, but whatever. There is a real value-add from this site. 2/2
Aug 19, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
When elections analysts point to previous times when polls have been way off, particularly in the Midwest, the lesson isn't "don't pay any attention to polls."The lesson is to remind people that polls are imperfect instruments and have had trouble recently in particular areas. 1/ In 2012 and 2016, the mantra was to treat polls as akin to God's spoken word. The polls were unusually good in 2008, and of course we had Nate Silver's breakthrough going 100 for 102 or whatever (in his defense, Silver was always forthright about poll uncertainty) 2/
Jul 8, 2022 17 tweets 3 min read
The roots of the GOP base's disdain for the old establishment are deep, but they trace back to the Reagan years. For decades, rank and file Rs were told "we want to do the things that you want to do, but we've only ever had the Senate and presidency. Our hands are tied." 1/ So in 2000, Republicans get the trifecta. Then one of their moderates (who the GOP had just spent $$ on getting re-elected in 2000) flips to the Ds. Two years later, Rs get the trifecta in a historic midterm win. "Well we need a bigger trifecta." 2/
Jul 7, 2022 10 tweets 2 min read
This is entirely correct, and an important thing for NeverTrumpers to understand: The old GOP is gone. It had to be. I've written about this before, but: 1/ If you look at what Reagan was elected to do: defeat the Soviet Union/reignite American exceptionalism, lower taxes, slow the pace of social change, defeat inflation, etc., it was all accomplished by 1992. Clinton was basically a giant capitulation to Reaganism. 2/
Jun 29, 2022 13 tweets 2 min read
On hearsay: First, it doesn't matter for right now, because this isn't a trial. At the same time, the hearsay rule isn't just some legal mumbo-jumbo, it's rooted in the common sense notion that you're more skeptical of evidence offered second- or third-hand. But first: For basic purposes, hearsay comes in two parts: First, it is something that comes in the basic form "I heard her say," i.e. you don't have firsthand knowledge of it. But SECOND, you have to be offering the statement as proof something actually happened. 2/
Jun 15, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read
This is sort of how I felt seeing some of the shifts in Appalachia in 2010, or blue collar areas in 2016. Except this I genuinely didn't think I'd see for another 20 years or so. Just astonishing. I mean, Cameron County 50-50 with half the vote counted? Obama beat Romney here by 30 points. He won Willacy County by 40 (which is also tied right now). I mean later votes will probably shift things but the fact that this is even close in a congressional race . . .