TheLastRefuge Profile picture
Aug 21, 2019 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
#1) A few notes about this....

marketwatch.com/story/us-creat…
#2) There is a difference between being a pure data analyst, and being a person who researches, analyzes and understands the *real world dynamics* behind the data.
#3) The BLS revision is a data skew, that reflects several aspects. However, you must review from a *real world* perspective to understand it.
#4) The BLS data compares reported job hires to the number of workers who filed income taxes.

This is why that specific BLS report -a review of tax records- comes out in August. After taxes are filed; and after the 3 month extension period available to filers.
#5) Over two years, on a national scale, 500k less people have filed income taxes than the hiring companies reported on their hiring reports.
#6) So the question is: Why didn’t those hired people file income taxes?

[These are the missing people, over two years, in the BLS analysis]
#7) There are several aspects to the answer.

One of them (a significant one) includes “illegal alien” hires in the construction and hospitality industries (restaurants, hotels etc).
#8) Another one.... is people who don't file income taxes, who function inside the hidden economy.

Some (good actuaries within the data industry) call this the "black market economy", as a reference. It is a real world and natural dynamic.
#9) An example might be a waiter or waitress who doesn't file taxes because they don't want to report "tips" in their earnings.

This has always existed. This is not unusual.

The difference today is greater data research that shows their shadow, but not their presence.
#10) In a VERY hot economy... this group grows; because the overall opportunity grows. It's a simple aspect of ordinary people hiding their income.

If larger income opportunities exist, a larger percentage of the workforce grows in the shadow.
#11) Now go look at the data, and you’ll see those specific industries are the industries where the hiring reports do not match the income tax reporting results.
#12) It’s not an issue of ‘were those workers hired’?… They were.

The BLS data-skew issue is ‘why didn’t those hired workers file income tax returns’?
#13) That’s the difference between being a pure data analyst, and being an actuary who understands the real world dynamics behind the data.
#14) Hope that helps.

/END

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More from @TheLastRefuge2

Jul 23
1) Elevate for a moment. BIG PICTURE

If the 2016 Intelligence Community Assessment and Joint Analysis Report were fabricated USIC intel in order to frame Donald Trump, then the JAR/ICA that led to the expulsion of 35 Russian assets was also a fabrication. Image
2) Using the Durham report, even the Wall Street journal said, […] “All of this suggests that the Mueller probe was as much a cover-up as an attempt to find evidence of collusion.”...

wsj.com/articles/speci…
3) Yes. If the ICA/JAR were manipulated evidence (they were), and John Durham confirmed the Robert Mueller Trump-Russia collusion investigation was based on fraud (it was), then what does that say about the status of things? Image
Read 8 tweets
Jul 21
Am I allowed to be a little bit frustrated... 🙃

1) The "source" was Anthony Weiner's lawyer.

.... who was attempting to leverage them to get favorable treatment for his pervert client.

judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/rele…Image
2) Notice: “hundreds of thousands of emails turned over by Weiner’s attorney to SDNY”.

Pay super close attention. This is not an outcome of a New York Police Dept. raid on Anthony Weiner. This is Weiner’s attorney going to the U.S. attorney and voluntarily turning over emails. The emails were not turned over to the FBI in New York, the actual emails were turned over to the U.S. Attorney in the Southern District.

Key point here: Weiner’s attorneys turned over “emails”.Image
3) We already pieced this together 7 years ago.

Grassley needs to overlay the Strzok/Page text messages to the OIG report and the newly released "Clinton Annex."

theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2018/04/2…
Read 5 tweets
Jul 20
1) It's going to be Tulsi Gabbard vs Tom Cotton!

[Patriots vs Sea Island]

Remember this.

SSCI Chairman Cotton is assembling his weapons right now, he has no choice - Cotton accepted the role. Tom Cotton is the "hand" of the Intelligence Community. Image
2) It's going to be bloody, brutal, vicious and one of the most consequential counter attacks in modern political history that few Americans will appreciate.

It's way over there.... on the beach.... far from view... far away from the crowd.... and it's going to be ugly.
3) She's doing this. But few, very few can actually see and understand what Tulsi is doing. I wrote the roadmap possibilities a year ago.

Compare what you see now, to this 👇. You will understand.

theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/08/0…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 3
1) You guys know the background.  You know the context. You know the history.  You know all the nuances and Machiavellian manipulations that have brought us to this very specific moment. Image
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Image
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President Putin is essentially ambivalent to your targeted position, but defines his adversary as your Central Intelligence Agency.  

You want to cut the Gordian knot, change the geopolitical world, create a strategic alignment; but to do that you need Putin to accept you do not view him as the enemy.  You also need to prove you have control over the apparatus he views as a threat. 

How do you prove you have control over the agency?Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 19
1.) As DNI Mrs Tulsi Gabbard has:

♦ chased down intelligence community leakers,
♦ released the JFK files,
♦ released Joe Biden’s domestic terrorism surveillance plan,
♦ intercepted an NIC plot to impeach President Trump (confirmed by Rubio),
♦ taken control of the Presidential Daily Briefing,
♦ and more recently begun to confront the weaponized corruption within the IC Inspector General organization.

These are actions, not words, and those actions speak boldly.  Suffice to say, her effectiveness has placed a target on her back.
2) Chased down intel community leakers.

theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/05/0…
3) Released the JFK files and released the Joe Biden domestic terrorist surveillance program.

theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/04/1…
Read 8 tweets

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