More from the Polish Justice Ministry scandal. Now @OnetWiadomosci has published screen shots suggesting members of the judicial disciplinary chamber and the KRS - both stacked by PiS - shared ideas to harass judges, including abusive cards to head of Supreme Court Gersdorf. 1/
@OnetWiadomosci If true, the allegations not only show more hounding of judges by a group led from inside the Justice Ministry, but also reveal exactly why there was so much protest about the "reforms" that created the new disciplinary chamber and reshaped the KRS (Judiciary Council). 2/
@OnetWiadomosci Judges appointed to these bodies under the controversial processes controlled by PiS appear to have discussed how to attack independent judges, with access to personal info about them and in cahoots with a senior official in the Ministry. This is precisely what critics feared. 3/
@OnetWiadomosci The judge accused of proposing the abusive card to Gersdorf was promoted by Justice Minister Ziobro under new powers granted by the PiS reform (to fire court presidents and replace them). Then he was appointed to the new disciplinary chamber after PiS's Supreme Court changes. 4/
@OnetWiadomosci Two others who participated in the chat group with those discussing how to hound and discredit independent judges are members of the PiS-shaped Judiciary Council, whose function is to protect judicial independence. This constitutional function appears to be compromised. 5/
@OnetWiadomosci PiS's judicial reform plans have been diluted by internal disagreement and especially by outside pressure (the CJEU). But they have still created the potential for more political control over parts of the judicial system. For more, see my 2018 article. 6/ notesfrompoland.com/2018/07/31/law…
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First thoughts on the new Polish government's changes to public media [THREAD]: A sensational day as media boards replaced by ministerial decision and public news TV taken off air. After turning these media into its own propaganda tubes, PiS now warns of an unfolding "coup". 1/
To begin with aims. Public media under PiS have emitted a constant stream of the most radical party propaganda in authoritarian style, defying statutory requirements of pluralism and balance, degenerating public discourse. The aim of replacing the current boards is justified. 2/
But what about the means? The government is effectively using a legal loophole to get around various procedures for appointing the boards, claiming the new culture minister can decide as representative of the 100% shareholder (the treasury) under the commercial companies code. 3/
PiS's decline and the Polish village [THREAD]: A key narrative has been young/city voters coming out in record numbers to sink PiS. Important, but also something going on in the Polish village (where PiS dominates and where 39% of voters live) with a big impact on the result. 1/
PiS still dominant party in village with 45.28%, but major decrease on 2019 share (55.57%). In fact, PiS vote share fell just as much in village (18.5% drop) as in towns (19.1%). Loss in big cities even worse, but among much fewer voters. Fall in huge village heartland hurts. 2/
So what happened? Turnout is key. The narrative has been about massive turnout in big cities. True, but turnout was always high there. The biggest proportional increase was in village - 25.2% higher than in 2019 (compare with 17.9% increase in cities and 12.6% in big cities). 3/
Polling suggests Poland's coming parliamentary election will be very close, with possibility of no clear majority.
The timetable of events after Sunday's vote will be important, with the president playing a crucial role.
A brief guide on what to expect [THREAD]:
1. Exit poll results will come at 21:00 CET on Sunday, but if things are as close as polls suggest, we may need to wait until as late as Tuesday for full official results and seats. That will leave a day or so of uncertainty and multiple parties and supporters claiming victory.
2. The president must call the first session of the new parliament for within 30 days of the election.
3. The president designates a PM, usually from largest party (probably PiS), but constitution gives president freedom in this choice. Duda is likely to designate a PiS PM.
Germany's image seriously tarnished in CEE. lliberal forces like Poland's government already had anti-German tendencies (PiS's public TV propaganda has attacked Germany for years). But now even liberals friendly to Germany are often dissatisfied with level of support for Ukraine.
Or indeed more than dissatisfied - rather dismayed. It has been striking to see these liberal responses in Poland. Not of the same vehemence as PiS supporters confirming their dislike, but still a creeping sense that Germany isn't a reliable partner in the most crucial questions.
Of course this dismay reaches far beyond CEE. But here there is particular impatience with the German protest that they have already made a radical shift (true enough), as the view is that only past mistakes (and a refusal to listen to CEE partners) made such a shift necessary.
Poland has now seen over one million refugees cross its border from Ukraine in the 11 days since Russia's invasion. The majority of Poles are in favour of helping Ukrainians, and many are offering this help in person. The government is making plans to support this effort.
A government spokesperson told Polsat News that Poles who host Ukrainian refugees will be refunded around 1200zł/month for each person. Ukrainians will be offered a kind of temporary leave to remain and permission to work.
The figure of 1 million and the suffering of all those forced to leave their homes are hard to process. So many of the people I know in Poland are hosting Ukrainian refugees right now.
For comparison, in 2015, all EU member states saw a total of 1.3 million asylum applications.
What's going on in Poland? [THREAD] Deputy-PM Gowin has been dismissed from PiS's coalition government, which probably means a challenging new period of minority government for PiS, even if not all Gowin's party MPs go with him (PiS may convince a few of them to stay). 1/
Unless there are more surprises ahead (possible), PiS's coalition may end up with around 223-225 MPs (majority=231). They'll be able to pass some new laws via deals with independents, Kukiz, and some of Konfederacja, but this will depend on the issue and won't always be easy. 2/
Though they may be able to muddle on, governing will be difficult, and PiS will lose the key aura of power and effectiveness. Further drops in polling may follow. They could struggle to pass legislation for the "Polish Deal", which would then make early elections likely. 3/