First thoughts on the new Polish government's changes to public media [THREAD]: A sensational day as media boards replaced by ministerial decision and public news TV taken off air. After turning these media into its own propaganda tubes, PiS now warns of an unfolding "coup". 1/ To begin with aims. Public media under PiS have emitted a constant stream of the most radical party propaganda in authoritarian style, defying statutory requirements of pluralism and balance, degenerating public discourse. The aim of replacing the current boards is justified. 2/

PiS's decline and the Polish village [THREAD]: A key narrative has been young/city voters coming out in record numbers to sink PiS. Important, but also something going on in the Polish village (where PiS dominates and where 39% of voters live) with a big impact on the result. 1/ PiS still dominant party in village with 45.28%, but major decrease on 2019 share (55.57%). In fact, PiS vote share fell just as much in village (18.5% drop) as in towns (19.1%). Loss in big cities even worse, but among much fewer voters. Fall in huge village heartland hurts. 2/

Polling suggests Poland's coming parliamentary election will be very close, with possibility of no clear majority.

The timetable of events after Sunday's vote will be important, with the president playing a crucial role.

A brief guide on what to expect [THREAD]: 1. Exit poll results will come at 21:00 CET on Sunday, but if things are as close as polls suggest, we may need to wait until as late as Tuesday for full official results and seats. That will leave a day or so of uncertainty and multiple parties and supporters claiming victory.

Germany's image seriously tarnished in CEE. lliberal forces like Poland's government already had anti-German tendencies (PiS's public TV propaganda has attacked Germany for years). But now even liberals friendly to Germany are often dissatisfied with level of support for Ukraine. Or indeed more than dissatisfied - rather dismayed. It has been striking to see these liberal responses in Poland. Not of the same vehemence as PiS supporters confirming their dislike, but still a creeping sense that Germany isn't a reliable partner in the most crucial questions.

Poland has now seen over one million refugees cross its border from Ukraine in the 11 days since Russia's invasion. The majority of Poles are in favour of helping Ukrainians, and many are offering this help in person. The government is making plans to support this effort. A government spokesperson told Polsat News that Poles who host Ukrainian refugees will be refunded around 1200zł/month for each person. Ukrainians will be offered a kind of temporary leave to remain and permission to work.

What's going on in Poland? [THREAD] Deputy-PM Gowin has been dismissed from PiS's coalition government, which probably means a challenging new period of minority government for PiS, even if not all Gowin's party MPs go with him (PiS may convince a few of them to stay). 1/ Unless there are more surprises ahead (possible), PiS's coalition may end up with around 223-225 MPs (majority=231). They'll be able to pass some new laws via deals with independents, Kukiz, and some of Konfederacja, but this will depend on the issue and won't always be easy. 2/

On Poland's court ruling against Holocaust researchers [THREAD]: The Polish government has led a campaign to whitewash history and intimidate researchers tackling difficult issues, but this civil lawsuit is only indirectly related to it. The verdict is of an independent court. 1/ The judge said researchers Engelking and Grabowski must apologise for giving "imprecise information" on alleged complicity of a Polish man in the murder of Jews by Germans during WWII. But she rejected claims for damages and for an admission of intentional slander of Poles. 2/

Poland's presidential run-off first exit polls:

Duda - 50.4
Trzaskowski - 49.6

Extremely close. We won't know the winner until official results come in tomorrow or later. Turnout of 68.9% - the highest of any election (presidential, parliamentary or other) in post-1989 Poland. Big mobilisation of voters to participate in democratic processes.

Poland's key political conflict [THREAD] comes down on some level to underlying contest of economic and cultural interests: (a) poorer, rural/small-town, traditional Poland (and those identifying with it) vs (b) richer, urban, more global Poland (and those aspiring to join). 1/ This divide isn’t unique to Poland. Broadly, conservative PiS is party of (a); liberal/centrist KO represents (b). Smaller parties cut across in different ways. The key fact of Polish politics is demographic: rural/small-town (a) is larger than urban (b). So PiS has advantage. 2/

Lost villages of southeast Poland (THREAD): Beyond hills and forests south of Przemyśl along the Ukrainian border is a beautiful landscape, now almost empty, but once dotted with villages of Ukrainian and other interwar minorities. The inhabitants were deported after WWII. (1) After the deportations, the villages were completely destroyed by Polish communist forces. All that remains in empty fields are the fruit trees that once would have stood alongside the rural homes. (2)

Premature musings on Poland's future [THREAD]: Could PiS's high-water mark have passed? A very strange question when they have just won the largest proportion of the vote of any party since 1989. But their second term is already shaping as a greater challenge than their first. (1) Parliament will be a trickier proposition. In 2015, they were fortunate to win a majority with only 38% of the vote. This time, even with 43%, they have the very same slim majority, with more other parties in the parliament to contest their policies from different directions.

More from the Polish Justice Ministry scandal. Now @OnetWiadomosci has published screen shots suggesting members of the judicial disciplinary chamber and the KRS - both stacked by PiS - shared ideas to harass judges, including abusive cards to head of Supreme Court Gersdorf. 1/ @OnetWiadomosci If true, the allegations not only show more hounding of judges by a group led from inside the Justice Ministry, but also reveal exactly why there was so much protest about the "reforms" that created the new disciplinary chamber and reshaped the KRS (Judiciary Council). 2/

If you like a mix of religion and hard election campaigning, then @RadioMaryja is for you. Here is Antoni Macierewicz putting the opposition coalition in a history of subservience to foreign powers and warning that "LGBT anti-values" will rule if they win. radiomaryja.pl/informacje/tyl… The conservative Catholic radio station also continues regularly to publish antisemitic conspiracy theories. Here a columnist suggests that the recent revelations of sexual abuse in the Church are part of plans to destroy it before a "Jewish occupation". radiomaryja.pl/multimedia/mys…