Levels of complexity thinking: 0) Using statistical / calculus assumptions* 1) Recognizing stat/calc assumptions are often wrong! See: Dependencies, Extreme events, Nonlinearity, High dimensionality, Indirect effects, Unintended consequences, … 1/
2) Using a different set of assumptions: Network, Agents, Fat tails, … (People generally choose one: I.e. hammer looking for nail).* 2/
3) Recognizing all assumptions are sometimes valid (universality classes). Identify the right assumptions for this situation using Patterns, Possibilities, Multiscale analyses. 3/
4) Constructing an understanding from multiple frames/tools (like constructing a building out of multiple tools). 4/
5) Society and science, math and people, in frame.
Note: *[Self-consistent thinking using assumptions that are only sometimes true and easily mis-applied]
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With Millions Suffering, Long COVID is Devastating the Economy
"Over 15 million American adults—about 1 in 17—are currently living with long COVID, according to the CDC. While some have tried to claim that long COVID is gradually... 1/ by @SalvMattera whn.global/with-millions-…
"...getting better, there’s not much evidence to suggest that’s the case. In fact, since the CDC began tracking long COVID in 2022, more than 5% of American adults have consistently reported long COVID symptoms at any given time."
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"I pointed this trend out to someone who was unaware of long COVID and the sheer number of people who appear to be suffering from it.“If many people are gradually developing long COVID,” they asked me. “Wouldn’t we see it in the economic data?”Yes, we would.And in fact, we are.3/
Long Covid expert: all infections have "prolonged consequences"
"If it seems like everyone you know is sicker now than ever before, it's not just your imagination. A recent analysis by Bloomberg and Airfinity revealed...13 communicable diseases... 1/ boingboing.net/2024/06/20/lon…
"—including tuberculosis, measles, pertussis, polio, influenza, RSV, chickenpox, invasive group A streptococcus, mycoplasma pneumoniae, parvovirus B19, dengue, and cholera—are "surging past pre-pandemic levels in regions across the world."
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"While this rise is certainly attributable to multiple factors, including vaccine hesitancy and climate change, Dr. David Putrino, Director of Rehabilitation Innovation for the Mount Sinai Health System, and a Professor....
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Important News from CDC on HICPAC Infection Control recommendations:
"Based on the significant interest in the draft recommendations, CDC is taking a proactive step of communicating back to HICPAC some initial questions and comments... 1/ blogs.cdc.gov/safehealthcare…
"In addition, CDC is working to expand the scope of technical backgrounds of participants on the HICPAC Isolation Guideline Workgroup .. in accordance with the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) regulations and guidance.
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"The expanded workgroup and the HICPAC with the newly appointed members will review and discuss these additional considerations and guideline at the next HICPAC meeting, which is open to the public.
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"Long Covid: NHS legal action launched by family of girl
"The mother of an 11-year-old Aberdeenshire girl with long Covid has launched a legal action against their health board, in what lawyers claim is the first case of its kind in Scotland. 1/ bbc.com/news/uk-scotla…
"Helen Goss, from Westhill, is seeking damages from NHS Grampian on behalf of her daughter, Anna Hendy.
"The action claims the health board is responsible for "multiple failings" in Anna's treatment and care.
"NHS Grampian said it would not comment on individual patient cases.
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"The claim alleges failings were avoidable, that they caused Anna "injury and damage", and led to her condition worsening.
"Anna became unwell after contracting Covid in 2020.
Handwashing, Gloves, and Masks: Oh My!
In 1847, German obstetrician Ignaz Semmelweis saw that obstetric patients died of childbed fever at a much higher rate than those treated by midwives...he suggested to his colleagues that they wash their hands 1/ whn.global/handwashing-gl…
..before examining their new mother patients. His idea was ridiculed and ignored. Patients continued to suffer unnecessary illness and death until Louis Pasteur’s experimental confirmation of germ theory in 1861 was disseminated and accepted in the medical community. ..
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"Today handwashing is a mainstay of medical protection and of basic hygiene far beyond the medical arena.
"When I was a child in the 1960s and 1970s, my dentist and physician conducted exams and dental work with clean hands but no gloves.
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