Levels of complexity thinking: 0) Using statistical / calculus assumptions* 1) Recognizing stat/calc assumptions are often wrong! See: Dependencies, Extreme events, Nonlinearity, High dimensionality, Indirect effects, Unintended consequences, … 1/
2) Using a different set of assumptions: Network, Agents, Fat tails, … (People generally choose one: I.e. hammer looking for nail).* 2/
3) Recognizing all assumptions are sometimes valid (universality classes). Identify the right assumptions for this situation using Patterns, Possibilities, Multiscale analyses. 3/
4) Constructing an understanding from multiple frames/tools (like constructing a building out of multiple tools). 4/
5) Society and science, math and people, in frame.
Note: *[Self-consistent thinking using assumptions that are only sometimes true and easily mis-applied]
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1/ I’m here not to address HICPAC directly, but to speak to those listening—healthcare professionals, patients, and advocates—who are committed to public health and safety.
Let me highlight several critical concerns.
2/ Members of HICPAC and the organizations they represent have significant financial conflicts of interest.
This issue, documented in a complaint submitted to the HHS Office of Inspector General, raises serious questions about the integrity of their guidance.
3/ Additionally, HICPAC has operated in secrecy, with workgroup meetings closed to public scrutiny.
This violates the Federal Advisory Committee Act, which mandates transparency. Such closed-door decisions erode trust and undermine accountability.
"Prevention of COVID-19 is of utmost importance. For several years, many in our society largely based their COVID recommendations on a one infection and done strategy. We now know that many are coming down with multiple bouts of the disease.1/ kentucky.com/opinion/op-ed/…
"We were told that severe outcomes were hospitalization and death, otherwise you had a mild disease. Now we are faced with crippling long COVID which has ravaged many in our society. In the United Kingdom, long COVID affects as many as 33.6% of healthcare workers.
2/
"At the same time, we were assured our children are safe, they will almost never get severely sick from the virus. However, we started seeing long-term effects from COVID-19 in some of the children we know, and hoped they were outliers. 3/
Effective Oct 1, 2024-March 31, 2025, NJ Hackensack Meridian Health is requiring all patients, visitors and staff wear masks during patient encounters at all of its patient care facilities (e.g. hospitals, physician offices, rehabilitation facilities, etc) hackensackmeridianhealth.org/en/patients-an…
About Hackensack Meridian Health
"...a leading not-for-profit health care organization that is the largest, most comprehensive and truly integrated health care network in New Jersey, offering a complete range of medical services, innovative research and life-enhancing care. 2/
"The network has 18 hospitals and more than 500 patient care locations, which include ambulatory care centers, surgery centers, home health services, long-term care and assisted living communities, ambulance services, lifesaving air medical transportation,
3/
"As a parent, I want my son to be safe at school, so that was a key part of my motivation to do this," says Mr Kinner, the Brisbane creator of COVID Safety for Schools, a free online course that aims to correct misinformation and teach school staff and parents how to reduce ..
2/
"..the risk of the virus spreading. "But also, having spoken to lots of other parents and teachers, it's clear that most schools are lacking an understanding of some of the absolute basics of COVID. And in the fifth year of the pandemic, I find that very troubling."
3/
"What if a troublemaker simply decides to disguise his face with large sunglasses and a hat, instead? Are we going to criminalize sunglasses and hats, too? 1/ nj.com/opinion/2024/0…
"Even with an exception for people who wear masks for medical reasons, it’s a threat to personal freedoms, because it leaves it up to the cops to decide whether someone has a legitimate medical reason for wearing a mask at a public gathering.
2/
"... in its current iteration, this bill would do little to deter actual criminals, while only further stigmatizing mask wearing for vulnerable people.
"Ask anyone still masking because of a weakened immune system, or to protect a loved one, ...
3/
As COVID Surges, the High Price of Viral Denial @TheTyee
"Although the media routinely dismisses all COVID infections as an inconsequential nuisance, that’s not what the science says. 1/ thetyee.ca/Analysis/2024/…
"An important new Nature study, for example, has now proven that the spike protein of the virus can bind with a blood protein, fibrin, setting off a chain of blood clots resulting in chronic inflammation and brain damage.
2/
"Repeated studies show in the bluntest terms that the initial acute infection is only the tip of the iceberg. Even a mild bout of COVID can leave a legacy of blood clots, heart failure, diabetes, decreased brain function long COVID and immune damage.
3/