Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Physicist studying social challenges including pandemics. Now focused on stopping the Coronavirus @NECSI @endCOVID19
Campion1581 Profile picture Jörg Honegger Profile picture Timothy McDonnell Profile picture Luis Montenegro Profile picture Muhammad Profile picture 8 added to My Authors
28 Nov
"The young die as well from COVID-19, even as many engage in denial

"A dangerous fiction has made its way through social media and American politics.

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usatoday.com/story/news/hea… via @usatoday
"Those who are in terrific shape, are young and have no prior illness can, indeed, be critically ill from COVID..Many died and many will die. In addition, healthy people are continuing to unknowingly spread COVID to elderly, who become ill and are at higher risk for death."

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"To young adults who doubt their vulnerability.. I would invite them to visit our ICU and see the multiple tragedies of younger people infected with COVID,..I think people are willing themselves to believe they are not at risk but that's a very dangerous and mistaken belief."

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Read 10 tweets
28 Nov
Strong lockdown needed in Germany

👉Minister: "partial lockdown could last until Spring 2021"

“lockdown light”... stopped exponential growth but stabilised at high level

Merkel and leaders of Germany’s states agreed to extend and tighten measures

reut.rs/3fKSeqs
Compare

Germany, Belgium, France, Switzerland
Partial lockdowns just waste time and money. Pay the price and get nothing for it.
Read 4 tweets
28 Nov
As the first European country to go back to national lockdown, Ireland now averages less than a quarter of their recent peak and is now set to announce the exit plan from the lockdown.
France's daily cases also saw steady decreases, the daily change of active cases (new cases minus recovers and deaths) is down to 10k and expected to dwindle further as the case rate decreases and recovery accelerates.
Germany became the 12th country to reached 1 million confirmed cases, as their daily average more than 20k recently. Yesterday, Germany reported 430 deaths, their second highest ever.
Read 6 tweets
27 Nov
What is the economic cost of not going to #ZeroCOVID?

Some countries are enjoying normal life, minimal restrictions except limitations on international travel. Domestic economies are thriving and even tourism benefits from local travel.

Let’s look at several reports:

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Boston Consulting Group Report

“the sooner a country can limit the spread of the virus…the shorter the period that the economy will be frozen, and the sooner people can get back to work”



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Read 17 tweets
27 Nov
"Weeks before the state rolled out its color-coded tier system for reopening counties, a pandemic expert warned reopening the economy so soon would eventually just lead to more shutdowns.

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Guess what?

nbcsandiego.com/news/local/pan…
"New England Complex Systems Institute founder Dr. Yaneer Bar-Yam has advised presidential administrations and worked to end the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

“All you’re doing is perpetuating the situation,” said Bar-Yam in an interview with NBC 7 back in August

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“If you have a fire in your house,” said Bar-Yam. “What you really want to do is get rid of it. And you don’t want to leave any fire around.”

 “The fastest, best way to get out of this is to go all in and get rid of the disease,” said Bar-Yam.

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Read 5 tweets
27 Nov
Europe (blue curve) continues to see decreasing case counts. The daily average is now 214k, significantly lower than the peak during late Oct. to Nov. Several countries are still experiencing exponential growth including Serbia, yesterday a new high of 7,579.
South Africa saw surges in Eastern Cape and Western Cape recently. Yesterday, the national increase was 3,250 cases, highest since August. Their daily average increases by 30% in the last two weeks.
South Korea reported 583 cases yesterday, surpassing the peak of its previous wave. Seoul, Gyeonggi-do recorded 213 and 183 new cases, significantly higher than recent averages.
Read 4 tweets
25 Nov
Canada yesterday saw a new high of 6,795 cases, based on JHU data. Though Ontario and Quebec are leveling in the past two weeks, Alberta's daily average rose from 851 to 1,406. Saskatchewan is also on the rise. Image
Belgium reported 1,123 cases yesterday, the lowest since Sept. 21, as the country finishes the third week of the recent national lockdown. Now the daily average is 1/6 of what it was one month ago. Daily deaths also have been trending downward. Image
Yesterday Turkey reported 6,713 cases with 153 deaths, both highest since the pandemic. Testing positivity also recently surged. Image
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
Singapore reaches 14 days of no community transmission.

Congratulations! ImageImageImage
Notice that Singapore is on the way to opening large venues!
Read 4 tweets
21 Nov
In-flight transmission despite required masks, gloves and pre-flight testing. @nntaleb

A traveler tested negative for covid-19 before a flight. He had the virus and infected 4 passengers.

washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/11…
"The study details an outbreak linked to one passenger on an 18-hour flight from Dubai to New Zealand in September.

The report details a coronavirus outbreak linked through DNA analysis to one passenger on an 18-hour flight from Dubai to New Zealand in September.

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"The traveler, who tested negative for the coronavirus with a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test within 48 hours of the flight, was contagious but pre-symptomatic onboard the plane, and infected at least four other passengers.

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Read 15 tweets
20 Nov
Paradox: Biden says he will shut down the virus, not the economy. The high US transmission means a short lockdown is necessary. Theory and experience in countries around the world tell us this is true. A few localities might be exempted.

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A short lockdown with rapid green zone reopening is the fastest way to achieve economic recovery. Half-way measures don’t work. In order to have something different happen than under the Trump administration, and prevent further surge of the disease this is the way.

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Contrast “Red Zone” with “Green Zone” strategy: In red zone strategy you impose restrictions based on transmission rate, mostly in red zones. In green zone strategy you start to suppress transmission everywhere, identify, create, open up green zones. It is the exit strategy.

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Read 10 tweets
20 Nov
US reported 170,161 cases yesterday, second highest ever, with 4 states reporting new records. The daily toll was 1,848, the highest in half a year. Hospitalizations are at an all-time high, approaching 80k from 52k two weeks ago.
Turkey reports the highest daily cases and deaths that they’ve seen since April-May.
Japan reports a new high of 2,230 cases. Large surges observed in much of the country, especially Tokyo.
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
"Finland and Norway boast the West’s lowest rates of mortality,..now stand out as the closest Western equivalents to Asian nations that have managed to avoid the worst of the pandemic."

Their recipe:

@bopanc @eppe

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wsj.com/articles/finla…
"Their recipe: a brief, targeted lockdown in March, followed by tight border controls with mandatory testing and quarantine for all travelers.

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"Finland and Norway follow a similar playbook of strict border controls, mandatory quarantines and detailed contact-tracing focused on preventing superspreading events when infections do occur.

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Read 17 tweets
19 Nov
Coronavirus update:

Europe's daily cases continue to drop. In France, the number of critical cases began to plateau recently. We should expect a plateau and a subsequent drop in daily death tolls if this trend is to continue.
Serbia has not yet peaked in this wave. Yesterday, they reported 4,994 cases with 24 deaths, both are all-time highs.
Uruguay reported 104 new cases yesterday, marking the first time for the country to surpass 100. Recent growth is coupled with a rise in test positivity, though still relatively low, it is just over 2%, which is a new high.
Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
#COVIDzero
"HALIFAX—This morning, my children went to school—in an old brick building, where they lined up to go in the scuffed front doors. I went to work out at the gym, the real gym, where I huffed and puffed in a sweaty group class
@RobertGreenhill
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nytimes.com/2020/11/18/opi…
"And a few days ago, my partner and I hosted a dinner party, gathering eight friends around the dining room table for a boisterous night that went too late. Remember those?

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"Where I’m living, we gather without fear. Life is unfolding much as it did a year ago. This magical, virus-free world is just one long day’s drive away from the Empire State Building — in a parallel dimension called Nova Scotia.

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Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
Great! South Australia reacts fast to stop the new outbreak starting last few days and get back to normal.

(Note: Victoria is still COVID free and the strong lockdown in SA will protect other states as well)
"South Australia will go into a full lockdown for at least six days from midnight Wednesday night to nip the latest COVID-19 wave in its bud

As part of the toughest lockdown our nation has seen so far, schools, universities, cafes, pubs, takeaway shops and restaurants will close
Video on lockdown announcement in South Australia:

Fast action:

Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
US reported 158,453 cases yesterday. As cases surge, hospitalizations are also at all-time high, with every state seeing increases over the last two weeks. Now well over 70k are currently hospitalized, while the previous two waves peak at 60k.
Canada's cases continue to rise. Yesterday, they reported a new high of 6,027, as Alberta’s daily average approaches 1k.
Daily cases in Europe have been dropping recently. The daily average is below 250k for the first time since late October, mostly due to the recent decreases in countries like France, Germany, and Spain.
Read 5 tweets
17 Nov
US reported 133,045 cases yesterday, the lowest in the last week. The total confirmed cases in the US hit 11M. The latest million was reached with only 6 days, the fastest ever. Image
Daily cases in Mexico are currently increasing, after decreasing for a few months. Yesterday, Mexico became the 11th country to reach 1M confirmed cases.

This has resulted in a death toll of almost 100k, ranked 4th in the world. Image
Sweden announces a ban on gatherings of more than 8 people, as average daily infections reach 3 times of the first wave. Their test positivity rate also surged significantly during this wave, now at 13%, while it averaged below 4% during its worst days in the first wave. Image
Read 4 tweets
14 Nov
It is manifest that retailers in many parts of the world, owners of airlines, restaurants, bars, shops, are pressing governments to open up the economy even though it will cause disease, death and disability.

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They are short sighted in their advocacy, after all we see the benefits of strong action in Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia in stopping the outbreak and opening normally.

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The economic recovery depends on eliminating the virus. Opening partway then closing, opening and closing will bankrupt business. Business owners are misled in thinking opening with the virus will benefit them. Entire branches of the economy are being destroyed.

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Read 14 tweets
14 Nov
US sets a record for the 7th time in the past 10 days, 153,496, doubling the July peak. 41 states are averaging more than 1k cases/day. Testing positive rate continues to climb, now over 10% nationally, and much higher for hotspots.
UK reported a new high of 33,517 cases yesterday, a 25% increase from their previous daily record. Daily death tolls have also climbed continuously, now at 375, 40% of first wave’s peak.
Estonia reports a new high of 373, as new restrictions are introduced, including mandatory masks in public.
Read 5 tweets
13 Nov
Canada could be the next Australia

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@RobertGreenhill

link:
global-canada.org/wp-content/upl…
The TANZANC (Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Atlantic & Northern Canada) successes demonstrate that democracies with the right intrinsic characteristics and well-crafted policies can achieve zero COVID transmission,

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...with strong economic and societal benefits and superior resilience to future COVID waves."

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Read 36 tweets
12 Nov
Italy’s total confirmed cases surpassed 10M, as the recent rate of change is far faster than seen before.

Much of Europe is also seeing record highs.
US saw a new high of 136,325 cases yesterday. IL, OH, MT, and WY see new highs. 1,415 deaths reported yesterday, highest since mid-August.

Canada’s daily average keeps rising, now at 4.5k. Ontario remains the current epicenter.
Algeria sees rapid surge recently, yesterday with a new high of 752, surpassing its peak during the last wave.
Read 4 tweets