Thread by @AMFChina

@FGodement You may be right that Xi will crack down on Hong Kong no matter what. But what is the political / policy consequence we should draw from this informed guess? Tell Hong Kongers to go home, accept 1C1S and live in fear? They may not win, but they will have put up a very good fight

@FGodement And while I agree that Xi is a Stalinist, I disagree that political opposition in the form of nonviolent noncooperation is futile. Please watch Gene Sharp’s BBC interview, especially his comments about resistance to Nazi rule

@FGodement Last but not least: Despite all setbacks China’s democracy movement has developed by leaps & bounds. Granted, it hasn’t changed the regime yet. But the strategic thinking has greatly evolved and what happens in HK today could very well happen in mainland China in the near future

@FGodement So I agree with you that the political system CCP under Xi won’t liberalise in a top-down fashion. I guess where we differ is in our assessment about the efficacy of bottom-up activism. You are very skeptical - and I respect that - but I see no alternative to such agency

@FGodement And should PAP/PLA intervene - which I now think is a 50% chance - we’ll get a counter-insurgency which will make The Troubles in Northern Ireland look pale in comparison. This will be the CCP’s black swan event from which it will not recover, domestically & internationally

@FGodement Unroll @threadreaderapp