Yinka Chukwuemeka Ogunnubi Profile picture
Aug 22, 2019 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Of the total of $19.5 Trillion global FDI flows between 2005 - 2018, $15 Trillion went to OECD countries. This means that 77% of global FDI flowed to 36 (mostly rich countries) out of 196 countries. The rest of the world (mostly Africa) was left to scramble for crumbs.

A THREAD!
The idea that the "world" is investing more in "emerging economies" is at best a PR campaign and at worse, a lie. The data doesn't support it. Their economic and financial models surely doesn't prescribe it either. To break it down in simple language, WE ARE ON OUR OWN!
The idea that what you need to turn around your economy is a rich knight riding in from the west is a myth. If you don't grow your local economy by creating value through markets creating innovations that creates local jobs, industry and infrastructure, you will struggle.
China did not become the second biggest economy and the biggest exporter by waiting to scramble for FDI leftovers, they did it by creating local value and invoiced it to the world. It was the same principle that built western economies & it's the same principle that'll build ours
When you study the major economies we celebrate today, you will see that their development stems from market creating innovations, that created local jobs, new industries & new govt rev. From Ford in the US to Toyota in Japan and Samsung in S.Korea.
When Mo Ibrahim wanted to invest in telecoms in Africa, he was given every reason to rethink the gamble. The experts in Europe with their data told him "the market is not there....It'll be too expensive....No one will invest". He followed his guts and the rest is history.
If Nigeria is going to develop to the nation of our dreams, it is going to be off the back of the creativity, productivity and value creation of Nigerians and not from FDI crumbs or portfolio gamblers exploiting loopholes in FX policy to make a short-term kill.
How do we begin? Start Buying Naija. When u do so, you're supporting a industry & jobs locally. Every time you buy an imported product, you are helping to pay the salary of somebody abroad and increase their govt rev & GDP. KIA started by selling bicycles. Toyota was initially..
...rejected by the US market until the Camry became the highest selling car in the US. The Sony brothers started producing low quality radios from WW2 ruins before the "Walkman" gave them a break. If we don't support our own, they won't get the needed capital to scale & compete.
Capital is risk-averse. It'll always flow in the direction of safety. The models are there to guarantee this. Rich countries will continue to attract a large chuck of available Capital and when there is crisis, they'll withdraw the crumbs they let go. That's not gonna change ATS.
It is time to be selfish for once. When you buy that local product, know you are helping to keep someone in a job and keeping a organisation afloat and also increase government revenue and increase our GDP. Economic Patriotism is a must if we must develop and grow this economy.
* an organisation.

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More from @yinkanubi

Feb 5
If you missed the CBN Governor's interview on Arise TV, here is a summary.

On FX Backlogs

- We met $7 Billion in unpaid obligations
- We had reason to believe we needed to take a harder look at those obligations.
- Deloitte was contracted to do a forensic audit of what is valid or not. The results were startling
-- $2.4 Billion had issues
-- Not having valid import documents
-- Entities did not exist got allocations
-- Entities who asked for FX got more than they asked.
-- Entities that did not ask got allocations
- We wrote to the authorized dealer to explain. Sadly much has not been disputed.
- $2.3 Billion of the validly executed ones including Airlines have been cleared.
- What remains is $2.2 billion. We are confident we will address those. We have come to the end of the road.
- The Naira remains undervalued
- The Naira will stabilise.
On FX Liquidity

- CBN does not produce FX, it rather relies on what comes in.
- You need a mix of FX sources to have a adequate liquidity. FPI is one of them.
- A lot of FPIs are very interested in coming back to the Nigerian Market.
- They (FPIs) have taken a methodological interest in the direction the country is going.
- Recent move to have NNPC and other MDA to move their funding into the CBN is very positive and a confidence booster. Those outsiders see it as a giant step forward.
- The time for panic and cynicism is not now. We are in a time where the right decisions are being taken.
- Even the rating agencies are reacting positively to what is happening.
On Interventions.
- I have no illusions that interventions are necessary in our country. They help to channel resources to people however small.
- However, it is important to ensure that the framework is there to ensure it gets to those who really need it.
- The CBN will focus on it's core strength.
- We will be working closely with those whose core strength is in the intervention space.
- We cannot think and implement at the same time.
- We do not have the luxury of failed interventions.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 22, 2023
4mths ago, I raised the alarm abt CBN defaulting on delivery of FX forwards. Some said it was a false alarm only for the CBN to admit in its June 16 circular to "prioritize orderly settlement of any commited forward". They started delivering alright but stopped at Jan'23 maturity
Image
Since then, they've not honoured their commitment to fulfill their obligations to deliver forwards with maturities from Feb 2023. Customers are still incurring million in trade charges for trade loans which have not been offset due to the non-delivery of the FX forwards by CBN.
From the CBN audited report and the JP Morgan report, we've an idea why CBN might be struggling to meet these obligations. Unfortunately, this has not been helpful because it damages the risk profile of NGN and makes access to trade finance more difficult for banks and importers.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 17, 2023
Nice piece Bayo. I've read takes debating this issue and I've shared my own funny take as well. I don't think people are saying the quality of health care in NGN is better than the UK. It's not. I think what they're saying is that access to HC in Nigeria is faster than in the UK.
I personally have had two terrible experiences assessing health care in the UK (one my aunt and the other a friend). I was personally involved, so I know the story. Both experiences were traumatizing. In the second case, this person was in terrible pains and in great distress.
We called 999 and they asked us to contact the GP that it was not a life threatening situation. According to them if the person can still communicate, then it wasn't an emergency. It wasn't until they heard her death screams that they dispatched an ambulance two hours later.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 3, 2023
"I'm ashamed & embarrassed about the laughing stock we've made ourselves & our Faith in the eyes of the world. This show of shame has become a subject of articles & media conversations that are condescending towards the church of Christ" - @VictorAdeyemi

m.facebook.com/story.php?stor…
"I want to plead with our ‘Prophets’ to admit their failures and apologize to the body of Christ and the nation. They should go further & learn to ‘keep quiet’ henceforth, except God clearly speaks to them. They shd admit to themselves that they were moved by the flesh towards...
...self aggrandizement and greed to tell lies in the name of the Lord as prophecies. If indeed they had supernatural experiences, they shod admit they were deceived by demons and go for deliverance. In the name of the Lord, I plead they shd stop embarrassing the body of Christ."
Read 7 tweets
Apr 24, 2023
I was just informed of the death of a friend. His story is that of a man who slaved for his family, and kept giving even after a divorce forced him to be separated from his wife & kids. 3yrs ago he had a stroke which affected his mobility & earning capacity. Yet, he kept on going
He needed support round the clock and therapy too. But there was no family around to help. Sometimes in the evenings, I would sit with him to keep him company. He would agonize about his family and how even in his medical state, he his unable to have access to his children.
He was an unhappy man and this brought about bouts of anger that made people avoid conversations with him. But I understood him and I was one of a few that could calm him down. He was a lonely man who needed the love and warmth of his family at his most vulnerable time.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 7, 2023
I feel the need to address a broadcast message that has been floating around WhatsApp about my daughter Tomisin Ogunnubi. The story has a lot of inaccuracies that needs to be corrected. The story conflates many facts and presents a picture that is completely inaccurate.

THREAD
First the claim.

The story in summary claims that Tomisin Ogunnubi, a 16-year-old Nigerian tech kid beat 49,000 competitors to win $1 billion from RISE initiative with her app.

1. Tomisin is not 16. She would be 20 in July. She won the RISE award in Oct 2021 at the age of 18.
2. Tomisin did create a tracking app as part of a school project when she was 12 which got her national & international acclaim. But it was not because of the app that she with 100 other teenagers globally won the RISE Award.

The process for the award..

Read 15 tweets

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