If you missed the CBN Governor's interview on Arise TV, here is a summary.

On FX Backlogs

- We met $7 Billion in unpaid obligations
- We had reason to believe we needed to take a harder look at those obligations.
- Deloitte was contracted to do a forensic audit of what is valid or not. The results were startling
-- $2.4 Billion had issues
-- Not having valid import documents
-- Entities did not exist got allocations
-- Entities who asked for FX got more than they asked.
-- Entities that did not ask got allocations
- We wrote to the authorized dealer to explain. Sadly much has not been disputed.
- $2.3 Billion of the validly executed ones including Airlines have been cleared.
- What remains is $2.2 billion. We are confident we will address those. We have come to the end of the road.
- The Naira remains undervalued
- The Naira will stabilise. On FX Liquidity

- CBN does not produce FX, it rather relies on what comes in.
- You need a mix of FX sources to have a adequate liquidity. FPI is one of them.
- A lot of FPIs are very interested in coming back to the Nigerian Market.
- They (FPIs) have taken a methodological interest in the direction the country is going.
- Recent move to have NNPC and other MDA to move their funding into the CBN is very positive and a confidence booster. Those outsiders see it as a giant step forward.
- The time for panic and cynicism is not now. We are in a time where the right decisions are being taken.
- Even the rating agencies are reacting positively to what is happening.

4mths ago, I raised the alarm abt CBN defaulting on delivery of FX forwards. Some said it was a false alarm only for the CBN to admit in its June 16 circular to "prioritize orderly settlement of any commited forward". They started delivering alright but stopped at Jan'23 maturity

https://twitter.com/yinkanubi/status/1663893243057131524

Since then, they've not honoured their commitment to fulfill their obligations to deliver forwards with maturities from Feb 2023. Customers are still incurring million in trade charges for trade loans which have not been offset due to the non-delivery of the FX forwards by CBN.

Nice piece Bayo. I've read takes debating this issue and I've shared my own funny take as well. I don't think people are saying the quality of health care in NGN is better than the UK. It's not. I think what they're saying is that access to HC in Nigeria is faster than in the UK.

https://twitter.com/J_teapot/status/1703350662614970704

I personally have had two terrible experiences assessing health care in the UK (one my aunt and the other a friend). I was personally involved, so I know the story. Both experiences were traumatizing. In the second case, this person was in terrible pains and in great distress.

"I'm ashamed & embarrassed about the laughing stock we've made ourselves & our Faith in the eyes of the world. This show of shame has become a subject of articles & media conversations that are condescending towards the church of Christ" - @VictorAdeyemi

m.facebook.com/story.php?stor… "I want to plead with our ‘Prophets’ to admit their failures and apologize to the body of Christ and the nation. They should go further & learn to ‘keep quiet’ henceforth, except God clearly speaks to them. They shd admit to themselves that they were moved by the flesh towards...

I was just informed of the death of a friend. His story is that of a man who slaved for his family, and kept giving even after a divorce forced him to be separated from his wife & kids. 3yrs ago he had a stroke which affected his mobility & earning capacity. Yet, he kept on going He needed support round the clock and therapy too. But there was no family around to help. Sometimes in the evenings, I would sit with him to keep him company. He would agonize about his family and how even in his medical state, he his unable to have access to his children.

I feel the need to address a broadcast message that has been floating around WhatsApp about my daughter Tomisin Ogunnubi. The story has a lot of inaccuracies that needs to be corrected. The story conflates many facts and presents a picture that is completely inaccurate.

THREAD First the claim.

The story in summary claims that Tomisin Ogunnubi, a 16-year-old Nigerian tech kid beat 49,000 competitors to win $1 billion from RISE initiative with her app.

1. Tomisin is not 16. She would be 20 in July. She won the RISE award in Oct 2021 at the age of 18.

If the issue is about the resistance of the privileged to deposit their NGN before the deadline, I would have no problem insisting that the deadline shouldn't be extended. But that is not the case. Even in urban areas, people can't obtain the new notes in banking halls and ATMs. In a country where you still need bank notes to pay for basic services like local transportation, and food stuff, it will be very unfair for people not to have the new currency in hand. Yes teledensity and acceptance of digital payment have grown significantly, i do not think..

In exactly 26 days, the campaign for the 2023 elections will officially start. Among many things, candidates will release their manifestos and hold rallies. We'll hear the usual campaign slogans and political platitudes. Nonetheless, it's important we ask very important questions I will try to outline some of these important questions. The point here is primarily to know where the candidates stand on these issues and what exactly they would do. Any candidate that refuses to say exactly what they would do should be asked repeatedly until they answer.

The basic instinct of an avg Nigerian is "Survival". You'll be wrong if you think it's the concern of only the poor. It is also a major concern for the middle class and the rich. It's the reason why the Nigerian will think WIIFM before considering what's in it for the community. It's the reason why a civil and public servant paid to facilitate policies and processes that benefit the larger society will instead think of how it benefits him first before doing the needful. If it benefits him, it is only then it can benefit the tax payer who pays his salary.

Answer

In the lead-up to the 2011 GE, INEC registered 73.5m voters, capturing their biodata & fingerprints. It produced a temporary voters card for them to vote. In the lead-up to the 2015 GE, INEC introduced the PVC and used the Automated Fingerprint ID System (AFIS) software..

https://twitter.com/yinkanubi/status/1551813332130304001

...as well as business rules to trim down registered voters to 68.8m in 2015. The introduction of card readers in 2015, ensured that mostly accredited voters cld vote thereby increasing the credibility of the elections. The missing link was the electronic transmission of results.

The devil is in the detail. Having analyzed the raw data of the 2022 Osun elections (by LGA) and compared it to the 2018 data, I can categorically say that the APC has a lot to be concerned about. What looks like a positive (46% vote increase from 2018) is actually a negative.

https://twitter.com/yinkanubi/status/1548637024252485633

If you make a like-for-like comparison between the total vote cast for APC in 2018 (255,505) vs the total vote cast in 2022 (375,027), you may conclude that APC gained 46% more votes, which probably shows that it has gained more voters. But, it's not exactly the case.

First it was Benny Hinn who in 2019 changed his theology and renounced the prosperity message. Now it's Creflo Dollar in 2022 ordering his followers to destroy every book and tape he has ever written & preached on tithing because it's not biblical. Wawoo!

Do you know what makes this annoying? There are millions of people worldwide who from a young age had based their life decisions, careers & aspirations on what these MOG said. Destinies were shaped by their teachings. Now those people will have to wonder - were we in the wrong?

According to reports, this interview was done in 2018. This is a very relevant fact in analysing his claims. We must start with the following questions.

1. How much was really invested in IBL?

2. What was the performance of IBL in 2018 when this interview was granted?

https://twitter.com/tosinadeda/status/1539331749091606529

1. How much was invested in IBL?

According Anambra State Commissioner of finance, PO's admin invested N1.96B in 2012. At the USD/NGN rate of 155, that gives us around $12.6m. It's important to note that this conversion to $ is only necessary because PO stated the investment in $

The way it was reported.

1/5

punchng.com/nigeria-others… The Truth.

Nigeria was never listed by IMF among countries at high risk of debt distress.

The so called "report" was actually an IMF blog post about improvement to the framework for debt treatment of countries under the IMF Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI).

2/5

When I was in primary and secondary school I was the victim of bullying. Of course back then people didn't call it bullying. They called it chancing or whatever name they want. Teacher-Student, and Student-Student abuse were considered part of the normal educational experience. The abuse went from almost being maimed for life, to being tortured under a senior's desk, and beaten by a classmate because I had the guts to call him while he was with a girl. Found out later that assaulting me helped to boost his cred as a "big boy" with the babes. No jokes!

"And we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them who are called according to his purpose. For whom he did foreknow, he also did predestinate to be conformed to the image of his Son, that he might be the 1stborn among many brethren." - ROM 8:28-29 "Find out what's God's purpose for your life because in that role you'll flourish & prosper. It's not everybody God has designed to be a Dangote, some of you have been designed to be teachers. Stay in your purpose and you'll find God there." - Pastor Richard #ReclaimingYourDesign

In June 1998 following a conference "to finalize and adopt a convention on establishment of an international criminal court" to try war crimes, 120 nations voted for the treaty while 7 voted against. The 7 that voted against were Iraq, Israel, Libya, China, Qatar, Yemen & the US. For those who do not know, the ICC is an independent court empowered to investigate and prosecute war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide, and the crime of aggression. Currently 123 countries have ratified the treaty except a few including the US, Russia and Ukraine.

Ghana, a country with a tax to GDP ratio twice that of Nigeria (13%), believes it has one of the lowest tax to GDP in Africa. To change that, it decided to "widen" its tax net by imposing a 1.5% tax on all electronic transactions called the eLevy.

reuters.com/world/africa/g… This new tax proposed in Nov 2021 has now been passed into law and assented to by the Ghanaian President. The 1.5% eLevy will affect all transfers to and from a mobile money account or a bank account above a daily free threshold of 100GHS. Ghana expects to rake in $1.15 billion.

Few weeks ago, I asked a question that seeing the economic effects on the world of sanctions imposed on Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine, is it really worth the cost?

Now, it appears the cost could extend beyond economics. It could be political.
bloomberg.com/news/newslette… We are seeing...

- Soaring food prices in Peru
- Food shortages in Sri Lanka
- High inflation in Pakistan
- 61% Jump in Inflation in Turkey worse than Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina and Lebanon.
- Long fuel lines in Kenya and Nigeria
- High Gasoline and Diesel prices in US & UK

The man collecting bribe to reduce a tax assessment of N1.5Bn to N150m also complains about the nation's debt burden. Somehow, he can't connect how his action reduces govt revenue & increases the debt burden. As long as he can point the finger at politicians, he feels vindicated. Does he feel a responsibility to grow the nation's revenue so it can provide more social amenities and reduce the debt burden? Hell No! The only responsibility he feels is to himself, his family, and his cronies. Nigeria can go to hell. If the politicians don't care, why shd he?

According to the NBS, as at 2018, there are 70m Nigerians in the Labour force. According to PYO, only 19m of them pay taxes. This means on PIT alone, the tax net only covers 27% of work force. This means 73% are not captured. Why is this the case?

Note! Nami now says it's 41m.

https://twitter.com/yinkanubi/status/1510171067628900356

According to WB, data as at 2019 reveal that self employed persons make up 80% of total employed. If we take the numbers of those registered for personal income tax purposes which according to JTB was 10m in 2015, I think we'll get the idea where the non compliance is coming from