Abdimalik Abdullahi Profile picture
Aug 22, 2019 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Thread. #Jubaland.

Ahmed Madobe finally gets re-elected despite procedural loopholes;

Abdirashid Hidig also elected by the rival camp through a "mock" election process;

The region remains to be largely divided by the influence of imported politics + regional interests. 1/6.
The fact that any armed conflict was avoided is itself a good development, hopefully every camp will comply

The ball now rests in the court of IC; Somali stakeholders failed to compromise again. History has it that pressure on them will work best in such times. 2/6.
FGS ought to come out of its mute mode & directly engage with the JL admin. Petty calculations based on the 2021 elections anxiety will just tarnish their image both in the region & globally

FGS should also avoid taking sides & character assassinations, at least now. 3/6.
Its prudent that Ahmed Madobe reaches out to the other camp & brings forth meaningful compromise now that the election fever is no more.

It will be a fool of him to pretend that everything is fine. Jubaland is divided, has numerous political & social challenges to address. 4/6
The rival camp should also be ready to engage with the relevant stakeholders more so the Jubaland administration. They should not be overjoyed by the fact that they have external support from other stakeholders.

Constitutionally, their election was sham and illegal. 5/6
To Kenya & Ethiopia:

They should think twice. Any malpractices that they support will likely backfire sometime.

They should respect the sovereignty of #Somalia and never be dragged into the complex politics of this country. Its never in their interest to do such. 6/6

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More from @Abdimaleik

Jan 14, 2020
For any 1 to understand the enigmatical geopolitics of Somalia its very pivotal to first understand the intricate politics of Galmudug.

It took the FGS alot of time to arrive at a détente and an election process that literally brings every entity on board. Thread. 1/24
FYI;
FGS- Federal Government of Somalia

ASWJ- Abbreviated for Ahlu Suna Wal Jama'ah aka Sufi

N & N- Nabad & Nolol. Name tag/slogan for the FGS incumbent team

UPD- Union for Peace and Democracy. Political party led by former president Hassan Sheikh. 2/24
Presidential candidates & their affiliations

 - Ahmed Qoorqoor- State minister. Allegedly backed by FGS

- Odawa (MP)- Candidate of UPD

- Kamal Gutale- Wadajir party candidate

- Abdullahi Weheliye- State minister. Backed by Sufi group

All hail from the Habargidir clan. 3/24
Read 24 tweets
Nov 7, 2019
Puntland has since the last elections experienced hot political climate (sometimes over hyped).

Thread on the inflitration attempts of N & N into PL, working relationships of Pres. Deni, VP Karaash, Speaker Abdihakim (ex), Bosaso issue & the influence of "Aaraan Jaan". 1/21
For the benefit of all & to my friends who don't speak Somali/not familiar with common terms , check this simple glossary:

FGS- Federal Gov't of Somalia
PL- Puntland
VP- Vice President
Nabad & Nolol - Campaign slogan of Pres. Farmaajo & a name tag for the current govt. 2/21
There were clashes with skirmishes last night in Garowe b/w Puntland security forces & guards at the parliament HQs. Death toll, 3.

The guards were pro the ousted Speaker. Deployed many more (allegedly. The rival forces were sent from the PL state house. 3/21
Read 21 tweets
Sep 17, 2019
My two cents on #Galmudug elections.

1. Potential candidates & their backgrounds,
2. Main stakeholders
3. Galmudug state key in-house dynamics
4. What might be the end product. Thread. 1/17
Galmudug is an important region, politically. A large number of Somalia's political elite happen to hail from this region.

A complicated region; cosmopolitan in nature with regards to clan diversity.

Security wise, reliable with the exception of a few districts. 2/17
The incumbent (Xaaf) faced a lot of challenges partly because of his miscalculated political decisions and partly because of the region's complexity & diversity.

He is way less relevant now. Handed over his role(s) to FGS. 3/17
Read 17 tweets
Jul 6, 2019
Thread On #Jubaland :

Background info and geopolitical history of post civil war Jubaland in a nutshell.
#Jubaland is important b/c of :

- Proximity to Kenya (maritime dispute area entirely lies here)

- Resources

- Security wise - the only region in #Somalia where a complete province is under the full grip of AS.

- Cosmopolitan nature - rich in diversity
Jubaland constitutes 3 administrative regions / provinces:

1. Gedo; HQ- Garbaharey
2. Lower Jubba (Jubbada Hoose); HQ- Kismayo
3. Middle Jubba (Jubbada Dhexe); HQ - Bu'ale.

Other big towns are Bardere, Jilib, Afmadow & the commercial border towns of Beled Hawa and Dobley.
Read 25 tweets
Feb 26, 2019
On rape cases that are relatively becoming epidemic in Somalia, I had a thought that it's simply because we as a community, more so the menfolk, have totally failed to stay true to human & Islamic values that we claim to subscribe to.
But the buck stops right at the leaders who are not giving this serious issue the attention it deserves.

It's happening under their watch serially but they aren't taking it into account and deliberating on it accordingly.
Protection for vulnerable groups starts with legal protection and implementqtion of the manifestations in the constitution & rule of law.

Legislators literally slept on their job and so do the President, PM, ministry in charge & clerics.
Read 15 tweets
Feb 20, 2019
Is president @M_Farmaajo duping & misleading the public for political mileage?

Any 1 who was following his sentiments can attest to the fact that he literally bragged closing the "canals" i.e the links regional member states + autonomous regions (SL) have with Ethiopia
Contrary to his assertions and what seemed as diplomatic side shows, Ethiopia appointed one of the most decorated and long serving diplomats- Mr.Shamsudin Ahmed as its General Consul in Hargeisa. Shamsudin previously served as Ethiopia's ambassador to Djibouti and Kenya.
And even more dramatic, the president of Puntland, Said Deni has also received at Puntland Villa the newly appointed Ethiopian General Consul to Garowe- Gen Mabratu Waldo Aragay who will replace his predecessor, Mr. Asmalaash who run the consulate for 13 years.
Read 8 tweets

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