Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Somalia

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The two computer models which are known for their prowess in predicting cyclones continue to forecast cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea in coming days.

The question of whether these cyclones will form hangs over today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.
This image shows the Arabian Sea area where the GFS and ECMWF models are both expecting cyclone formation within the next 10 days, at different times and in different places.
Here's the GFS 9th May model forecast for today showing formation starting on Friday and landfall five days later.
Read 14 tweets
Today's Rainfall Forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow in this thread.

Below you see the Ethiopian Highlands from this morning and including most of the #BlueNile #GERD #Abay watershed . The large storm on the left is mostly over Sudan. On the RHS is #Lalibela.
Here you see an animation of the storm starting up this morning.
This satellite image (@NASA Modis ) shows the area in the Arabian Sea which computer models indicate could generate two cyclones in coming days. You can see the latest GFS forecast runs for those cyclones in the attached thread.
Read 16 tweets
Given the political interferences and corruptions that have crippled Somalia’s judicial system, hard to expect much; yet, it’s encouraging to see journalists and media houses sue culprits that perpetuate violence against media. @amnesty @US2SOMALIA @EU_in_Somalia @UKinSomalia
This legal case is a watershed moment for journalism in Somalia. The two individuals identified above have been at front and center of harassment and violence meted against journalists and critics. They have used combination of tactics to suppress narratives that go against gov’t
A commission should be formed after this gov’t is out of power tasked with investigating and punishing individuals that have engaged in these wanton attacks against media and have poisoned our public discourse.
Read 5 tweets
Ramadan for ISIS isn’t only about blood an gore but also about cooking and eating (small thread) #JihadiCulture

Read 7 tweets
I didn't think i would be shocked by #Farmaajo's actions any longer but the extent to which he's willing to go in order to satisfy his personal interest got me stumped.
#Somalia we aren't a poor country but few people in leadership like @M_Farmaajo are too greedy & selfish💔..
Our main bone of contention with #Kenya has been the maritime case in the ICJ, Kenya pretending to play a brotherly role while it bullies us to withdraw the case from ICJ knowing very well if we opt for an out of court settlement, we stand to be taken advantage of.
Somalis from all part of the world have always supported the FGS in the case, now that Farmaajo's term is ending & he desperately needs support from Kenya, he's agreed to their terms to an extend of agreeing to withdraw the case in exchange for Kenya's endorsement.
Read 4 tweets
#Ethiopia the #RedSea coast of #SaudiArabia #Yemen #Somalia and #Oman all experienced spectacular thunderstorm activity today.

Today's #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorm rainfall forecasts follow:
First up today, long range @NOAA forecast models are now forecasting a cyclone may form in the Arabian Sea, providing a timely warning of the risk to those in the region. See thread here >> Image
The most important thing about these forecasts is to understand they are an early warning system about the possibility of a cyclone forming, not a forecast that one will do so.

If a threat materialises you will see official advice and warnings here >>
Read 14 tweets
Growing evidence that even Somalia’s elite foreign-trained units such as Haramcad are splintering along clan lines. In this clip from an upcoming interview, Sayid Ali Saaji, a Haramcad cameraman & part of the unit that raided @MediaMustaqbal HQ details why media is a gov’t target
Sayid who is interviewed in the clip above was the face of a popular Haramcad propaganda poster few months ago.
Few days ago, Haramcad units ransacked a popular local radio station @MediaMustaqbal & tortured its editor
Read 5 tweets
In December 2020, less than a month and a half before a highly volatile electoral process was supposed to take place in #Somalia, Turkey delivered 1,000 G3 rifles and 90,000 rounds of ammunition to the Somali federal government.
The materiel was intended for use by the Turkish-trained Haramcad ("Cheetah") special police unit.
Haramcad has since been linked to crackdowns on demonstrators and attacks on opposition politicians.

Yesterday, the unit raided the Mogadishu HQ of independent media outlet @MediaMustaqbal, confiscating equipment and beating up a journalist.

Read 4 tweets
An image of thunderstorm activity in the Ethiopian #Abbay #BlueNile basin this afternoon, also showing significant rains South #Yemen and over most of #Somalia.

Todays, 27th April, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast & #HornOfAfrica follow in the thread below.
#ArabianStorms activity was boosted today by moisture flowing from the #Ethiopian monsoon rains in the Ethiopian Highlands, the watershed of the #Abbay #BlueNile catchment.

Below you see a 10-day GFS forecast of accumulated rain over North Africa.
This animation shows the flows of moisture from this morning across the Red Sea. A process which is called the "Southern Gate" by Saudi weather entusiasts. #ArabianStorms #Abbay #BlueNile #GERD
Read 14 tweets
Today is shaping up to be a huge day for thunderstorms across the Arabian Peninsula, #NileBasin and Horn of Africa.

#KSA #SaudiArabia #Yemen #Oman #Iraq #Kuwait

#Ethiopia #Sudan #Eritrea #Somalia #SouthSudan #Uganda

#ArabianStorms #DesertRain
Live weather radar of #ArabianStorms across The Arabian Peninsula. /2
Inside the Grand Mosque in Makkah Muslim pilgrims and the @HolyKaaba. /3
Read 9 tweets
Happening now: @CENTCOM Commander Gen Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie & @USAfricaCommand Commander Gen Stephen Townsend testify at SASC
.@CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie tells lawmakers he has all the tools he needs to complete the withdrawal from #Afghanistan
"We will lose the abilities we have now to see completely into #Afghanistan" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie, asked by @SenJackReed about impact of withdrawal on intel collection vs #alQaida #ISIS
Read 42 tweets
This 2019 article, written a year before the ethnofascist #TPLF launched war on #Ethiopia, exposes the rampant #rape &sexual violence that #women of #Tigray suffered from the rapist TPLF gang. The defeated criminal TPLF "men" are continuing their rape now!…
2) In this video clip from 2018 brodacast of #Tigray's DW-TV, a #Tigrayan woman recounts the horrible mysogynistic culture in Tigray under #TPLF, where #rape & sexual violence against Tigray's #women is a commonplace occurence, & 60% of Tigrayan womem are victims of rape.
3) #Tigrayan feminist @meazaG_, speaking to #TigrayMediaHouse in 2019, over a year before the war, explained the horrific level of #rape in #Tigray's society. She said men regularly kick & oppress women every night.Tigray ppl were victims of #TPLF. #TPLFcrimes
#Eritrea #Ethiopia
Read 25 tweets
UPDATE: The presidents of Hirshabelle and Galmudug and former presidents @HESharifShAhmed and @HassanSMohamud met to discuss the current situation in the country and in particular the mandate extension.
The presidents of Galmudug and Hirshabele have not yet publicly supported Farmajo's illegal 2-year extension passed by the lower house of parliament.

Most of the presidential candidates are from these two administrations. #Somalia
UPDATE: The meeting between presidents of Hirshabelle & Galmudug and former presidents @HESharifShAhmed, @HassanSMohamud and others concluded in an agreement to oppose @M_Farmaajo’s extension.
Read 4 tweets
BREAKING: @ODNIgov issues assessment on Worldwide Threats a day before intel chiefs testify before lawmakers

"#Beijing, #Moscow, #Tehran, & #Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability & intent to advance their interests at the expense of the UnitedStates...despite the pandemic"
"#China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas...#Russia is pushing back against #Washington where it can globally, employing techniques up to and including the use of force" per Annual Threat Assessment…
"#Iran will remain a regional menace w/broader malign influence activities" per @ODNIgov report "#NorthKorea will be a disruptive player on the regional & world stages"
Read 37 tweets
From Jan - 5th March 2021 (2 months)
Al-shabaab has carried out over 10 attacks in #Somalia with over 100 dead.
Jan 2: Suicide bomber outside Turkish military base- 5 dead
Jan 10: Bomb in Dhobley-17 dead
Jan 12: Bomb between Dhobley and Hosingow- 7 dead
Jan 19: landmine in Mogadishu- 4 dead
Jan 25: police vehicle hits IED near Mogadishu - 2 dead
Jan 27: 3 bomb attacks , 2 in Bal'ad 1 in Dinsoor- 16 dead
Jan 31: Suicide bombing Afrik Hotel - 9 dead
Jan 31: bomb detonated in Merca, near Mogadishu- 8 dead
Feb 3rd: AS exchange fire with SNA in Doonka- 7 dead
Feb 8th: Landmine in Dhusamareb - 8 dead
Mar 1st: news reporter shot dead in Galkayo- 1 dead
March 5th : suicide bomber VBIED Luul Yemeni Restaurant, Mogadishu- 20dead
Read 3 tweets
A rejoinder to @1PolicyWonk previous THREAD:

This is how to read #Somalia’s election impasse. It’s about numbers: 329 MPs & senators who will vote for the next President.

Mr. Farmaajo wants to scheme/force/dictate a process that will secure him majority of these 329 voters
As per the attached media reports, Mr. Farmaajo has already rigged 3 state- level elections: 2018 in Southwest, January 2020 in Galmudug & November 2020 in Hirshabelle. Leaders he produced from those states are now his staunchest allies in the current election debate.
If the federal election process is fixed as Mr. Farmaajo schemes then there will be no election. It will be crowning a schemer and the beginning to dictatorship.

This is not acceptable.

Thus the opposition is telling him: The integrity of the federal election is a redline.

Read 6 tweets
1/. QUESTION: What’s the worst day of the year for dictators, despots & populist autocrats?

ANSWER: April 7

Tomorrow, @amnesty release our annual 2020/21 report covering the state of #HumanRights in 149 countries

JOURNALISTS: For a copy or to an interview👉
“How's life in your country?"
"We can't complain"

This cartoon was about #Turkey but it also applies to:
#Somalia etc.
“I don’t care if they respect me, so long as they fear me.” (Caligula)

At @amnesty we don’t respect dictators, autocrats & human rights abusers

We don’t fear them either

As we publish Annual Report, here’s a guide for dictators human on ‘how to respond’…
Read 11 tweets
#Somalia is in a dangerous political impasse as political actors have yet to reach a breakthrough in talks about the 2021 elections.

The longer the situation persists, the greater the risk of violence, says Crisis Group's @OmarSMahmood

THREAD 1/10 ⇊
The parliamentary and presidential elections, due by February 8, have been postponed amidst a deep lack of trust between Somalia’s political elites. 2/10
This mistrust is a by-product of the #Farmajo administration’s attempts to centralise power, which has spurred a backlash in a country that has long had center-periphery tensions. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
THREAD on Friday's parliamentary crisis in #Mogadishu and broadly #Somalia's existing #electoral turmoil. I discuss what happened, and towards the end, I offer a possible electoral solution for a way forward. 1/17
At stake are two issues: did #Speaker #Mursal and opposition MPs follow the parliamentarian procedures, and does the speaker have the authority, under the parliament's rules & regulations, to suspend the 15 opposition MPs for 5 seating? Second, where do we go from here? 2/17
The speaker cited Art. 16 (1,2); Art. 18 (a, b); Art. 19 - 1 (b, c, d, e, f, g) & Art. 28-5 (n). Most of the above articles deal with the speaker's powers, the deputies, and governs' behaviors/conduct of legislators when parliament is in session. 3/17
Read 18 tweets
With the #Biden administration settled in, there's a clear trend emerging in certain circles to swat away long-standing, complex foreign policy challenges -- and #Syria appears to be low-hanging fruit.

'#Syria doesn't matter,' some say... 'It was just never that important.'
It's good for there to be a debate -- & yes, 'great power competition' (#China, #Russia etc.) ought to be *the* priority.

BUT to shove #Syria aside as a minor inconvenience would be profoundly reckless, given the extraordinary costs it's inflicted on global stability since '11.
So far, arguments in favor of '#Syria doesn't matter' can be broken down into 2 camps:

(1) Those who ignore the profound past, current & future costs altogether - or worse - (2) those who astonishingly claim that #Assad, #Russia & #Iran can resolve the crisis & achieve stability
Read 16 tweets
Happening now: Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on @USSOCOM & @US_CYBERCOM
"We recognize that our counterterrorism operations, while still critical to protecting Americans fro the likes of #ISIS & #alQaida, must become even more sustainable & focus on the most pressing threats" per @DeptofDefense Acting Asst Sec for Special Ops Chris Maier
"SOF continue to deter & disrupt persistent threats by terrorist & extremist organizations" per @USSOCOM Commander, Gen Richard Clarke

"20 years of this fight has honed out capability & most importantly our resolve" he says, calling SOF approaches "effective and sustainable"
Read 22 tweets
Federal Government of #Somalia exists because of the support it gets from the international community starting with the 20 thousand AU troops that protects FGS & its leaders & allied FMS. Without UE & western countries bankrolling AMISOM, there will be no FGS. That is a fact.
International community provide ammunition, training & food for the Somali army.

Somalia needs IC for lifting of arms embargo

IC feeds, educates & provides healthcare to millions of Somalis whom FGS cannot help.

IC forgave a billion dollar loan & is working on debt relief.
All democratic & affluent countries are facing a deadly pandemic that is depleting their finances.

Globally resources for foreign aid/investment is cut & understandably dwindling.

Global hotspots, humanitarian disasters & other fragile states are competing for IC’s support.
Read 4 tweets
Up to now, 110 political parties registered (provisionally) in #Somalia,

#Somalis want a democratic state;

The current dispute & delay over the indirect election is due to ONE factor: the outgoing president is scheming to openly and unabashedly engineer his reelection;
The outgoing Prez had a freehand in 3 local elections and he rigged them ALL, hence the VITAL & sacred duty to protect the national election;

In the #Southwest election, he arrested one contender and exiled the other & when the UN envoy said this is not good, he was PNG-ed;
During elections in #Hirshabelle & #Galmudug, no credible contender stood against Farmaajo allies because the process was rigged & outcome was already known;


#Puntland, #Jubaland & #Mogadishu Opposition are the bulwark against a dictatorship in Somalia; I solute them;
Read 5 tweets
UN Memo: "leadership in Ethiopia’s Tigray region deserves much of the blame for provoking the federal government’s bloody offensive against the Tigrayans"..."crackdown may have been justified" #Ethiopia #Somalia #Eritrea #Africa
UN Memo (contd): points to TPLF provoking Eth govt by attacking and seizing Northern Command in what would have been an “act of war everywhere in the world, and one that typically triggers military response in defense of any nation" #Ethiopia #Somalia #Eritrea #Africa
UN Memo (contd): says int. comm. has failed to address TPLF provocations over the past two years, including its opposition to govt. reforms and refusal to engage in political talks with the govt. #Ethiopia #Somalia #Eritrea #Africa
Read 12 tweets

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