Trinh Profile picture
Aug 22, 2019 3 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Actually, George Orwell wrote an essay on this regarding English intellectuals “kiss the arse of Stalin are not diff than the minority who give their allegiance to Hitler or Mussolini...Basically discussed the power worship & the age in which intellectual liberty was under attack
George Orwell was very prolific - he had opinions on a wide range of topic. In this 1 he wrote about intellectual liberty attacked by “the apologists of authoritarian” & also the tide turning the writer/journalist into an officer of society that drifts towards the worship power&$
A Revivalist hymn:

Dare to be a Daniel,
Dare to stand alone,
Dare to have a purpose firm,
Dare to make it known.

George wrote, “To bring this up to date, we’d have to add DON’T to the begging of each line.”

Told u, George’s essays are like Tweet storms. Spend time w/ George 🤗

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More from @Trinhnomics

Apr 12
Good morning,

Did you know that South Korea exports more to the US now than it does to China?

Actually, it isn't alone. A lot of Asian countries, due to supply chain reshuffling and also geopolitics and industrial policies, are exporting now more to US than China.

Why is South Korea doing more trade with a country far away than a country next door?Image
First, growth of exports to the US is faster than exports to China. In fact, China hasn't been importing much more and it is Korea that has been importing more from China for goods such as intermediate goods etc.

This has raised a big concern in Korea that China is a competitor & it's hard for SK to compete with its industrial policy and subsidies.Image
And so South Korea has 1 lever it can pull that is better than China - GEOPOLITICS. South Korea is an ally to the US. And as a country w/ a US FTA, it is being favored.

Whether it's the Chips Act or the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the whole point is to exclude China.

So what?
Read 8 tweets
Feb 8
Another Five Years of Jokonomics? More Infrastructure, Metals and Mining FDI, and Even Greater Dependency on China

A thread 🧵
Image
Indonesia elects a new president in a week. The leading candidate is riding high on Jokonomics, or the continuation of his policy & popularity, as Jokowi's eldest son is VP.

Prabowo promises 8% average GDP growth or Jokonomics. How realistic & what is Jokonomics anyway? Image
While people believe that Prabowo is the best bet of doing more of what popular Jokowi has done for Indonesia in the past decade & he promises the highest growth, Jokowi 10-year only produced 4.2% GDP growth on average. Stripping out 2020 (Covid), it's 4.9%. No where near 8% 👈 Image
Read 26 tweets
Feb 6
Indonesia elects a new president next week to replace Jokowi. The leading candidate - Prabowo - is riding the president's coat tail as many hope that he is the best hope for continuation. But what is Jokonomics exactly? From 2014 to 2023, Indonesia grew on average 4.2% per yr👈.
If we strip out 2020, which economy contracted, then under Jokowi, the economy grew 4.9% on average (4.2% if we don't strip it out).

So that's sub 5%. In fact, GDP barely deviates from 5% level. So why do people think that Prabowo is the key to escape the middle income trap?
Pres Jokowi's biggest accomplishments come from the fiscal side. Indonesia got investment grade in 2017. By weaning Indonesia slowly off expensive energy subsides, the expenditure side was contained. And with the commodity boom, Indonesia fiscal positions were leaner than most.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 2
Today is 2 Feb and we're basically two years since the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022.

So what you say? Well, since then, Asian FX has lost grounds to the USD, except SGD & HKD.

JPY lost -21.5%
CNH -12.1%
MYR -11.4%
TWD -10.2%
KRW -9.4%
INR -9.2%
AUD -9.1%
IDR -8.7%
What we know is that the Fed took rates from 0.25% to 5.5% or +5.25% increase, which is the sharpest since the 1980s of tightening cycle.

On top of this, it also has to wean down its massive balance sheet (BS) by letting 60bn UST & 35bn MBS roll off.

So what? Well, USD rallied.
People thought that in 2022, the Fed would only hike ever so meagerly but it kept going.

People thought that in 2023, the Fed would CUT because, well, the economy would crack but it kept going until July 2023 at 5.5%.

People thought that the Fed would CUT in March 2024 but...
Read 8 tweets
Dec 21, 2023
As we bid adieu to 2023, which was an abysmal economic year for EM Asia (India an exception), hope springs eternal as we look to 2024 with key drags dissipating.

A thread 🧵👈

bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
The great expectations of China lifting the region via imports and tourism disappointed as demand faded, weighed down by property market woes & weak investment.

From Korea to Vietnam, exports to China crashed, dragging down overall shipment, hurting big traders the most. Image
The goods deflation felt globally, especially in ICT, hit big traders hard. Commodity exporters such as Indonesia too didn't like the downward price trend.

Despite stronger US growth, China downward import growth dragged Asian exports.

India not being a bit trader helped shield Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 13, 2023
Investors are disappointed by the lack of stimulus to revive the animal spirit.

That is because Chinese data is still good according to the Chinese government. In fact, I imagine they are thinking, "Despite our tightening of real estate, cutting off services, GDP still grows👈"
Demand is deflated but supply is ever more growing, as per Caixin services and manufacturing. And let's not forget, GDP in Q3 surprised on the upside. So the economy is doing fine! Too fine for a big stimulus. Of course that is bad news for the financial sector & investors.👈
Now, the way to read this is to think, at some point, and by that I mean now, Chinese producers will have to sell all the goods that they produce with LIMITED DEMAND ONSHORE.

OFFSHORE selling is all the buzz. Must export deflation. Must do it ASAP.
Read 5 tweets

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