It aims to reach 100% renewable energy for electricity and transportation by 2030, including almost $900 billion in energy storage build out.
This is *not* possible
To start, it actually envisions doing this while phasing out nuclear power.
Despite the fact US commercial nuclear power has killed 0 members of the public, it would halt all new plants, and even halt license renewals
As other have pointed out, decarbonization is hard. Doing it with one hand and two feet tied behind your back, is not possible.
Even a basic risk/diversity analysis indicates we succeed with more sources.
This plan relies on a ~$1 trillion bet on unproven energy storage
Somehow, this plan will also pay for itself.
After 2035, "electricity will virtually be free"
Its like too cheap to meter, but for renewables
The plan does include getting money for litigation against fossil fuel companies, which is not a bad idea considering US climate liability. But even with that, electricity will never be "virtually free"
Would love to know who the experts who supposedly scored that are
They do include a storage R&D proposal: StorageShot.
Great idea, but Sunshot took a decade and solar is still less than 3% nationally.
There is no way to do the R&D, have innovation effects, and scale this up with RE to 100% reliably in 11 years
The plan has a lot of proposals for regulating fossil fuel production. Some, like banning federal leases, are somewhat climate mainstream.
Others, like banning exports AND imports, will crash the economy
We need to be ambitious. But plans should be designed in case they fail to not set back climate policy decades.
They should also be guided by science and we really can't run 100% RE for electricity, let alone transportation in 10 years. Its not technically/economically feasible
Thats about it. The plan is worth reading, it has a lot of good ideas, and only a handful of really kooky ones. I will say all of the money spending and economics seem questionable, especially as they are not consequential economic analyses but just costs (end)
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This is a big deal and a shock the Senate parliamentarian allowed it through.
Although power plant regulations may be stymied by the recent Supreme Court case, there is no legislative doubt that the Clean Air Act includes GHGs as air pollutants
If anything, this underscores the reserved nature of the Supreme Courts ruling. It was focused on an important doctrine ("major questions"), but had it gone after the endangerment finding, Congress would have just overruled it
Now thats resolved, the next congressional priority should be a carbon price or explicit power plant regs
Well thats a shock. The Supreme Court case is about as technical, procedural, and irrelevant as it can get. It stops EPA from using generation shifting as a best system of emissions reduction to set carbon caps under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf…
Mind this is just from reading the syllabus but it looks like the Supreme Court wanted to take the 2015 Clean Power Plan case as if the Trump Administration did not exist. It avoids rulings on Chevron, general GHG authority, and (apparently) even EPA's ability to use 111(d)
Based on this, not only does EPA still have GHG regulation capabilities for many sectors, it can also move ahead to promulgate a 111(d) rulemaking that avoids generation shifting. Meaning source control, like carbon capture
Not only does the Administration's use of the Defense Production Act violate congressional intent, it shows the continued neglect of and lack of leadership by this admin for advanced nuclear RDD&C
The DPA is not meant to support long-term civil domestic infrastructure. It's two most recent high-profile uses, COVID and baby formula, are acute health security issues.
Enabling the private solar industry through protectionism is not closely tied to national defense
Even if there is a defense rationale, there is no cohesive rationale for excluding nuclear energy.
The nuclear energy industrial base and supply chain are foundational to the Nuclear Navy, which is the foundation of US hegemony. It is atrophied and urgently needs revitalization
Its not everyday an article you write gets a direct rebuttal from Amory Lovins...
In Utility Dive, Lovins argues that nuclear energy and renewables are direct competitors (they aren't) and thats why we should ignore its climate value utilitydive.com/news/nuclear-e…
Lovins does not fully address or refute my three major arguments: 1. fossil fuels still dominate energy supply 2. electricity is a service, not a commodity, and unit level metrics are poor tools 3. portfolio principles are essential if we are talking climate change
This is a great thread about the challenge of getting EU off Russian gas.
What about why?
Russia has already used EUs gas dependence as a weapon this winter. They constrained volumes, exacerbating the global energy crisis, so that Europe would feel politically constrained
Now that most European countries have decided to provide weapons to Ukraine, Europe and allies must prepare for Russia to cut off all gas exports. They've already constrained volumes and invaded a sovereign state. Cutting off exports, or even the threat, jeopardizes public safety
It might just be a contingency plan, but we are past "this is hard," or "can't be done," or "Putin would never."
He very much could, and of course its hard. We over prioritized energy economics and environmental performance over energy security. An energy cutoff is a risk now
Just a few technical notes on Germany's nuclear fleet and whether it could help reduce gas demand. Reverting retired facilities is very difficult, bordering on impossible
In most cases, these units are in various stages of decommissioning. These may be irreversible.
Even if technically feasible, the facilities would likely need to be relicensed. Doing this quickly would be very difficult (and absolutely necessary for social license in Germany)
Further, the workforces for these facilities have likely already dispersed.
It may be possible to reverse these closures, but we are talking a 2023-2025 solution at best.