Space, nuclear, energy, climate.
Director of Space & Planetary Regulation @zeno_power
Fellow @payneinstitute PhD candidate @coschoolofmines
Views my own. He/him
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Aug 23, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
This is a big deal and a shock the Senate parliamentarian allowed it through.
Although power plant regulations may be stymied by the recent Supreme Court case, there is no legislative doubt that the Clean Air Act includes GHGs as air pollutants
If anything, this underscores the reserved nature of the Supreme Courts ruling. It was focused on an important doctrine ("major questions"), but had it gone after the endangerment finding, Congress would have just overruled it
Jun 30, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Well thats a shock. The Supreme Court case is about as technical, procedural, and irrelevant as it can get. It stops EPA from using generation shifting as a best system of emissions reduction to set carbon caps under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf…
Mind this is just from reading the syllabus but it looks like the Supreme Court wanted to take the 2015 Clean Power Plan case as if the Trump Administration did not exist. It avoids rulings on Chevron, general GHG authority, and (apparently) even EPA's ability to use 111(d)
Jun 6, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Not only does the Administration's use of the Defense Production Act violate congressional intent, it shows the continued neglect of and lack of leadership by this admin for advanced nuclear RDD&C
The DPA is not meant to support long-term civil domestic infrastructure. It's two most recent high-profile uses, COVID and baby formula, are acute health security issues.
Enabling the private solar industry through protectionism is not closely tied to national defense
Apr 12, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Its not everyday an article you write gets a direct rebuttal from Amory Lovins...
This is a great thread about the challenge of getting EU off Russian gas.
What about why?
Russia has already used EUs gas dependence as a weapon this winter. They constrained volumes, exacerbating the global energy crisis, so that Europe would feel politically constrained
Now that most European countries have decided to provide weapons to Ukraine, Europe and allies must prepare for Russia to cut off all gas exports. They've already constrained volumes and invaded a sovereign state. Cutting off exports, or even the threat, jeopardizes public safety
Feb 26, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Just a few technical notes on Germany's nuclear fleet and whether it could help reduce gas demand. Reverting retired facilities is very difficult, bordering on impossible
In most cases, these units are in various stages of decommissioning. These may be irreversible.
Even if technically feasible, the facilities would likely need to be relicensed. Doing this quickly would be very difficult (and absolutely necessary for social license in Germany)
Oct 6, 2021 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
1. Does environmental law apply to outer space?
In a new law review, @AstroTraviesa and I explore that question by evaluating whether the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) applies to federal and federally-authorized activities in space environs.law.ucdavis.edu/volumes/44/2/G…2. Why does this matter? Simply put, the rise of the commercial space industry means we are on the verge of a rapid expansion of space activities – mega constellations, space tourism, private space stations, space nuclear energy, and space mining
Apr 21, 2021 • 30 tweets • 11 min read
Poor industry performance is responsible for high nuclear power costs and industry stagnation, not regulation. I’ve had several people ask about this post, so here is a thread on nuclear costs
The post reviews the argument in a recent book “Why Nuclear Power Has Been a Flop.” It notes that nuclear power plants in many countries are expensive, and lays much of the responsibility on nuclear safety regulation rootsofprogress.org/devanney-on-th…
Feb 15, 2021 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
1. Extreme winter weather is causing rolling blackouts in Texas which may continue through Monday and potentially Tuesday.
@ERCOT_ISO declared an EEA 3. This is a very dangerous grid event, so please don’t rush to judgment about causes. It is complex
2. When California suffered rolling blackouts last summer, @MBazilian and I cautioned that such events are complex.
Invoking pre-existing beliefs about energy market design, capacity markets, and fuel types are not necessarily correct (and insensitive) utilitydive.com/news/californi…
Feb 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
For reference, ERCOT's final winter SARA showed an extreme winter demand scenario just shy of 68 GW ercot.com/news/releases/…
It estimated it could still meet demand with severe outages of about 14 GW, out of a total capacity of 82 GW.
With projections for early next week in the mid-70s, it's going to be very tight.
Oct 6, 2020 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
A new article by Sovacool et. al. in Nature Energy claims nuclear energy is not associated with lowering GHG emissions while renewables are.
The article's analysis does not support this contention but rather reflects the dynamics of global energy poverty nature.com/articles/s4156…
To start, the authors admit that their study is correlation and not indicative of causation.
However, they then base their analysis and conclusions on the inference of causation. Such logical leaps should not have made it past peer review. Here's why:
Aug 12, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Nuclear energy is really not a competitor with renewable energy.
It's primary competitor in most nations is coal and natural gas. In the US, it is increasingly natural gas.
Existing plants are not closing because of new renewables but because gas has driven prices down
And I really wish the nuclear industry would get it out of their head that renewables aren't reliable.
Reliability is a system-level characteristic. You can design systems with high levels predictable variable energy resources that are as reliable as high levels of dispatchable
Apr 21, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
We are straight up in black swan territory for oil markets. Negative pricing on an expiring contract is one thing, a 50% fall in the primary WTI contract is another.
Its really hard to emphasize how unprecedented the situation is. The harder the crash, the worse the rebound
Regulators and even the mercantile exchanges need to seriously consider halting trading. The physical market oversupply may require massive global shut-ins and current trading dynamics could cause unimagineable futures prices
Apr 20, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Oil is almost down to $1/barrel. Since many are not familiar with oil markets, its important to note why this is happening.
The May contract expires tomorrow. If you have a May contract at expiration, you must take physical delivery of 1,000 barrels of oil at Cushing in Oklahoma
Oil traders that still have contracts are selling at whatever price they can get because they do not (all) have the ability to take physical delivery.
Storage and refiners are not buying. The $1/barrel is a trading dynamic when there are many sellers and limited buyers
Mar 9, 2020 • 22 tweets • 7 min read
1. In the last two weeks, oil prices have almost halved due to Coronavirus’ threat to the global economy and the decision of OPEC+ to no longer control oil prices. Here’s a thread of resources and other threads explaining what’s what
2. As of this morning, WTI is trading around $32/barrel, >20% lower than Friday and the lowest price since 2016, as well near lows from the depths of the Great Recession and the early 2000’s.
Brent, the international benchmark, is not far off. (WTI, source EIA)
1. This last Wednesday I participated in the Minerals under Water Symposium at the University of Delaware. Deep sea mining used to be the future but the future is now.
There are some big implications for the energy sector. Some highlights (thread)
2. First, our research (@payneinstitute w/@MBazilian) focused on oceanic methane hydrates. Hydrates are natural gas trapped in a cage-like structure of water ice at high pressures and low temperature. They are found off almost all major coastlines (source: World Ocean Review)
It aims to reach 100% renewable energy for electricity and transportation by 2030, including almost $900 billion in energy storage build out.
This is *not* possible
To start, it actually envisions doing this while phasing out nuclear power.
Despite the fact US commercial nuclear power has killed 0 members of the public, it would halt all new plants, and even halt license renewals
Jun 4, 2019 • 50 tweets • 11 min read
1. Lets talk about risk, liability, and insurance for power plants in the nuclear industry. Domestic law, international agreements, and industry structure have led to us creating one of the broadest, most effective liability regimes of any energy source. (thread)
2. To start, lets do a pre-test. Is the Price-Anderson Act in the United States a subsidy for the nuclear industry?
Jan 24, 2019 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
My initial reactions to AEO 2019, with charts and data:
The most important high level point is that the US is poised to become a large net energy and fossil exporter post-2020. Note that the US will remain an OIL importer through 2050 in most scenarios, although the US may become a NET oil exporter
May 2, 2018 • 38 tweets • 10 min read
1. Energy system cyberattacks are rapidly emerging as an economic, reliability, and public safety risk domestically and internationally. Proactive cybersecurity actions by industry and governments can mitigate the most severe risks
2. To start, a basic question: what are cyber attacks? Cyber attacks are intentional, malicious, digital attempts to disrupt, compromise, or control computers or computer networks owned and operated by someone else csoonline.com/article/323732…
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