Thread by @SethAbramson

FACTS

1) 40% of Republicans are open to a primary candidate besides Trump.

2) This fall's chief DC topic will be impeachment; Trump will likely be impeached. Whether there'll be a Senate trial is unclear.

3) By December, the GOP field could be:

Kasich
Sanford
Trump
Walsh
Weld

NOTE/ I'm not saying Trump won't be the GOP nominee. I'm saying an impeached Trump in the midst of a Senate trial that airs his crimes is a *damaged* Trump. There may well be a number of Republicans who make the case that the GOP can't afford the risk of a post-impeachment Trump.

NOTE2/ Mitch McConnell refusing to hold a Senate trial after Trump is impeached by the House is, to be clear, *illegal*. Moreover, the moment impeachment occurs Chief Justice John Roberts is the judge in the case; the House might well be able to successfully petition for a trial.

NOTE3/ Right now 40% of Republicans are open to a new primary candidate. Imagine the optics if impeachment and a Senate trial push that over 50% due to anxiety over whether Trump can win. The moment a *majority* of Republicans are open to a new candidate, many things will change.

NOTE4/ A vulnerable, post-impeachment Trump could widen the GOP field even more than we expect, perhaps even forcing televised debates; at any such event, GOP voters would *finally* see how easy it'll be to demolish Trump over his disloyalty to the country and gross incompetence.

NOTE5/ I've no doubt that Trump would refuse to debate, as he's fundamentally a grotesque coward; *and* I've no doubt Ronna Romney McDaniel and the RNC would refuse to in *any* way make room for primary challengers, as the RNC is enabling a criminal and has been for 3+ years now.

NOTE6/ But there's a question about what CNN/MSNBC would do if they saw the following field of high-profile Republicans attempting to challenge Trump and wanting a televised debate (even one Trump wouldn't attend):

Corker
Flake
Haley
Kasich
Romney
Sanford
Sasse
Trump
Walsh
Weld

NOTE7/ All this is hypothetical. The names in the prior tweet have all publicly proven themselves to be cowards in the face of Trump's autocratic nightmare. The question is whether impeachment, a trial and cable's willingness to televise debates without Trump could change things.

NOTE8/ But here's another way to look at it: the more candidates who join the GOP primary, the more likely it is that new candidates join because it begins to seem like a real primary, with a chance that donors open their purses and that cable news gives coverage to challengers.

NOTE9/ Now add another wrinkle: increasing signs of a coming recession. I think we underestimate how vulnerable Trump may come to seem to many viable Republican presidential candidates in the 120 days to come. But it's media that determines whether this story ever really emerges.