Seth Abramson Profile picture
Aug 22, 2019 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
FACTS

1) 40% of Republicans are open to a primary candidate besides Trump.

2) This fall's chief DC topic will be impeachment; Trump will likely be impeached. Whether there'll be a Senate trial is unclear.

3) By December, the GOP field could be:

Kasich
Sanford
Trump
Walsh
Weld
NOTE/ I'm not saying Trump won't be the GOP nominee. I'm saying an impeached Trump in the midst of a Senate trial that airs his crimes is a *damaged* Trump. There may well be a number of Republicans who make the case that the GOP can't afford the risk of a post-impeachment Trump.
NOTE2/ Mitch McConnell refusing to hold a Senate trial after Trump is impeached by the House is, to be clear, *illegal*. Moreover, the moment impeachment occurs Chief Justice John Roberts is the judge in the case; the House might well be able to successfully petition for a trial.
NOTE3/ Right now 40% of Republicans are open to a new primary candidate. Imagine the optics if impeachment and a Senate trial push that over 50% due to anxiety over whether Trump can win. The moment a *majority* of Republicans are open to a new candidate, many things will change.
NOTE4/ A vulnerable, post-impeachment Trump could widen the GOP field even more than we expect, perhaps even forcing televised debates; at any such event, GOP voters would *finally* see how easy it'll be to demolish Trump over his disloyalty to the country and gross incompetence.
NOTE5/ I've no doubt that Trump would refuse to debate, as he's fundamentally a grotesque coward; *and* I've no doubt Ronna Romney McDaniel and the RNC would refuse to in *any* way make room for primary challengers, as the RNC is enabling a criminal and has been for 3+ years now.
NOTE6/ But there's a question about what CNN/MSNBC would do if they saw the following field of high-profile Republicans attempting to challenge Trump and wanting a televised debate (even one Trump wouldn't attend):

Corker
Flake
Haley
Kasich
Romney
Sanford
Sasse
Trump
Walsh
Weld
NOTE7/ All this is hypothetical. The names in the prior tweet have all publicly proven themselves to be cowards in the face of Trump's autocratic nightmare. The question is whether impeachment, a trial and cable's willingness to televise debates without Trump could change things.
NOTE8/ But here's another way to look at it: the more candidates who join the GOP primary, the more likely it is that new candidates join because it begins to seem like a real primary, with a chance that donors open their purses and that cable news gives coverage to challengers.
NOTE9/ Now add another wrinkle: increasing signs of a coming recession. I think we underestimate how vulnerable Trump may come to seem to many viable Republican presidential candidates in the 120 days to come. But it's media that determines whether this story ever really emerges.

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More from @SethAbramson

Sep 18
Straight talk: the pager attack in Lebanon that Trump friend Netanyahu orchestrated to scuttle peace talks and—it seems, secondarily—prolong a war that hurts Democrats in the United States not only injured thousands of innocents but sure feels like an Israeli *terrorist* attack.
And sadly it's working: peace is farther than ever, and American voters are blaming Democrats for a situation that has pretty clearly been gamed out by a regularly coordinating Trump-Netanyahu axis completely indifferent to human life.

Wake up, America! This is a MAGA-IDF joint.
Simply put, when you at a random time blow up scores of pagers across a country you're *100% aware* you are killing and injuring *thousands and thousands* of civilians. It's very similar to a homicide bomber going into a high-civilian-traffic "legitimate" target. It is terrorism.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 17
Weird that I even need to say this, but the *definition* of a political prosecution is a state Republican pol needlessly *duplicating* an existing prosecution because it's politically advantageous to the leader of his party to do so.

It's *exactly* what MAGAs said they oppose.
I'm still trying to locate a single "principle" the MAGA "movement" says it believes in that is actually a *principle*, not a strategic rhetorical device.

If you can find any value that so-called movement holds that remains consistent across all scenarios, please do let me know.
And I would go further than this. As a journalist and former journalism professor, I consider it my job to perceive when a self-described movement is objectively bereft of principles and wholly defined by *strategic* situational messaging.

Pretending otherwise is unprofessional.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 17
Both Trump assassination attempts were real—and tragic.

And provably the work of *Republican* loons.

So when Trump uses them as political chits—to fundraise, to ramp up his years of violent rhetoric—he feeds the delusions of those who call them staged. cnn.com/2024/09/17/pol…
The first shooter was a Republican from a Trump-supporting family whose friend group was Trump supporters.

The second would-be shooter was a disaffected Trump fan and Biden critic whose desired 2024 ticket was Ramaswamy/Haley.

This has nothing to do with Dems or their rhetoric.
There is not a single word or phrase a Democrat with a public profile has said about the threat Trump quite palpably and by his own admission poses to our democracy that Trump has not uttered a hundred times more and in vastly more inciting fashion about his political enemies.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 16
(📢) PROOF: The Trump-Loomer Scandal Has Just Taken An Unbelievably Dark Turn

🔗:

This report must be read to be believed. The Trump-Loomer scandal isn’t going away, isn’t ultimately about sex, and portends major danger for America ahead. Please RETWEET. sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-trump-lo…
Image
1/ The people who think the Trump-Loomer scandal is going away do not get it. Even the second assassination attempt on Donald Trump is not going to erase the fact that his closest adviser and possible paramour is now an ardent white supremacist and self-admitted hater of Muslims.
2/ One the silliest things folks who don’t follow politics closely do is spin conspiracy theories about every new political development being a carefully orchestrated “distraction” with no actually significant and historic substance behind it. I’d urge everyone to stop that sh*t.
Read 19 tweets
Sep 14
(📣) Twelve hours in, this is already the most popular PROOF report from the last year.

Why? Because it's sober and responsible—not gossipy—and people realize there are *major* political implications here.

PROOF: "Is Donald Trump Having An Affair?" (🔗): sethabramson.substack.com/p/is-donald-tr…
Image
1/ It's not just the fact that presidencies and campaigns have routinely been derailed by affairs in the past, or the fact that Trump is courting evangelicals as someone who has allegedly moved past his years of sin, or the fact that many MAGAs and some independents like Melania.
2/ Exponentially more important is the fact of who Laura Loomer *is*. But even within that question are innumerable complexities that must be broken down, and which in their totality explain why even top Republican officials worry a Trump-Loomer affair could destroy his campaign.
Read 38 tweets
Sep 14
(📢) PROOF: Is Trump Now Having An Affair With Laura Loomer? Here’s Everything We Know

🔗:

Fully sourced facts only. This report is free with the one-week PROOF trial at the link. I hope you’ll RT this—as there could be major political implications here. sethabramson.substack.com/p/is-donald-tr…
Image
(PS) I have now added a major coda to this report that includes information about Trump and Loomer most do not know (again, all fully sourced and linked to).
(PS2) I think that anyone pretending otherwise is trolling, but if you know the history of affairs revealed in the midst of presidential campaigns, and if you know who Loomer is and how many racial/ethnic/religious demos she is *openly* prejudiced against, you well understand...
Read 7 tweets

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