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Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
@Mij_Europe
Aug 23, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
.@BorisJohnson meets with Merkel & Macron will buy him a little time when Parliament resumes. Some Tory MPs now reluctant to rock boat while prospect of deal, however faint, still in play. Nuclear weapon of no-confidence vote unlikely to get majority until Oct if cliff edge looms
Moreover, for now, there seems to be more momentum behind legislation to extend A50 than VONC. Driven by opposition to @jeremycorbyn & huge concern he's not right man to lead temporary Govt - and so wouldn't win positive vote of confidence necessary to avoid elections
There's an interesting parallel to current political crisis in Italy, & question mark over whether PD & 5S can agree a caretaker PM (arguably the *key* issue) to avoid elections & formation of right-wing Lega Govt. Who can unite the left to avoid electoral annihilation by right?

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More from @Mij_Europe

Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Mar 2
‼️🇫🇷🇬🇧 The Franco-British ceasefire plan for Ukraine involves an initial one month “truce” to halt all air and sea fighting and all attacks on energy infrastructure, President Emmanuel Macron has revealed. 1/
In an interview with Le Figaro, conducted on his way to the London summit and published tonight, Macron also called for European nations to agree a new defence spending target of 3% or 3.5% of GDP (compared to 2% at present). 2/
Macron said the ceasefire under discussion with the UK PM Keir Starmer and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zekensky would come in two stages. In the first, one-month- long phase, it would apply only to the air, sea and energy installations. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Feb 20
Macron gave surprisingly upbeat commentary on Trump-Russia-Ukraine crisis in 80min live video conversation with the French public tonight. He said “uncertainty” generated by Trump could, in the end, be “good for Ukraine & good for Europe” but needed to be “structured” properly 1/
Macron said he would tell President Trump when he flies to Washington on Monday “you cannot afford to be weak with President Putin….Weakness is not you. It’s not in your nature. It’s not in your interest. How can you  be credible with China if you are weak with Putin?” /2
The French President carefully avoided the kind of push-back against Trump’s inaccurate comments on the Ukraine war which has been voiced by other senior members of his Govt. “Donald Trump generates uncertainty amongst others because he wants to do deals,” Macron said 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Feb 17
Europe should view Trump’s wrecking ball approach to Nato and negotiations with Russia on the Ukraine war as “an opportunity”, not just a threat, President Emmanuel Macron will tell a hastily convened informal summit of European leaders at the Elysée Palace today. 1/
Although the meeting, called by Macron,  may appear like a panicked response to the aggressive and often conflicting noises emanating from Washington, the French president will ask fellow leaders to avoid the temptation to start a transatlantic war of words. 2/
He will suggest that Europeans should a) conditionally welcome Trump’s “peace” initiative and b) commit themselves to rearmament.  In other words, to quote another US President, “talk softly but carry a big stick”. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Dec 12, 2024
A busy & possibly momentous day for @EmmanuelMacron. He is flying to Warsaw to discuss aid for Ukraine post-Trump and – maybe - a European peace-keeping force to guarantee any ceasefire with Moscow. He is due back in Paris by late afternoon to name a new French Prime Minister 1/
Which problem is harder: a ceasefire in the Ukraine war or a ceasefire in 🇫🇷 politics? Neither is in Macron’s gift. In Ukraine, the French president is seen as part of a possible solution; in France he is seen by some of the media as part of the problem 2/
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
Ukraine first. Macron will have bilateral talks with Polish PM Donald Tusk this morning, followed by lunch and a meeting with the President, Andrzej Duda. Officially, the agenda is continuing aid for Ukraine plus the EU trade treaty with S. America (opposed by both Fr & Pol) 3/
Read 13 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024
Excellent interview of @SecGenNATO by @HenryJFoy which echoes EU/Rutte strategy of dealing with Trump I picked up in Bxl a few weeks ago. The biggest concern among senior EU and European NATO officials is that negotiations over Ukraine’s future turn into a “mini Munich” 1/
This could involve 1/ immediate Ukrainian territorial losses to Russia 2/ further rapid Russian advances in E Ukraine 3/ big wave of Ukrainian refugees into EU & 4/ a “mindset of appeasement” to Putin that would exclude NATO but could also jeopardise its EU membership push too 2/
As one senior official who had discussed this issue with @SecGenNATO told me: “This would be a major strategic setback for the EU. The likelihood of this outcome increases if negotiations start from a position of Ukraine weakness.” 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Nov 7, 2024
The election of Donald Trump is a “decisive moment in European history”, the French President @EmmanuelMacron said today. “We must decide if we want to write that history or have it written by others”. 1/
Macron was speaking at the fifth summit of the 47-state European Political Community in Budapest. He said he had congratulated Trump but it wasn’t up to Europeans to say whether his victory was “good or bad”. They must see it as a warning to defend their own interests. 2/
“Trump was elected by the American people and will defend the interests of  Americans. That is legitimate and a good thing,” Macron said. “The only question for us to decide is whether we are going to defend the interests of Europeans”. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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