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Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
@Mij_Europe
Aug 23, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
.@BorisJohnson meets with Merkel & Macron will buy him a little time when Parliament resumes. Some Tory MPs now reluctant to rock boat while prospect of deal, however faint, still in play. Nuclear weapon of no-confidence vote unlikely to get majority until Oct if cliff edge looms
Moreover, for now, there seems to be more momentum behind legislation to extend A50 than VONC. Driven by opposition to @jeremycorbyn & huge concern he's not right man to lead temporary Govt - and so wouldn't win positive vote of confidence necessary to avoid elections
There's an interesting parallel to current political crisis in Italy, & question mark over whether PD & 5S can agree a caretaker PM (arguably the *key* issue) to avoid elections & formation of right-wing Lega Govt. Who can unite the left to avoid electoral annihilation by right?

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More from @Mij_Europe

Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Nov 7
The election of Donald Trump is a “decisive moment in European history”, the French President @EmmanuelMacron said today. “We must decide if we want to write that history or have it written by others”. 1/
Macron was speaking at the fifth summit of the 47-state European Political Community in Budapest. He said he had congratulated Trump but it wasn’t up to Europeans to say whether his victory was “good or bad”. They must see it as a warning to defend their own interests. 2/
“Trump was elected by the American people and will defend the interests of  Americans. That is legitimate and a good thing,” Macron said. “The only question for us to decide is whether we are going to defend the interests of Europeans”. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Sep 17
A few thoughts on the next @EU_Commission from here in Bxl. This is a realpolitik Commission: power under the next mandate will firmly rest with the EU's five largest member states - Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland - that will now do most of the running with VdL 1/
Poland's @Piotr_Serafin takes control of EU's powerful DG Budget - key as Bxl tries to reform EU finances away from redistribution to investment in bloc's geostrategic priorities. Tusk enjoys an open door in Bxl after his election result vs PiS. He's been rewarded accordingly 2/
Lots has been made over Breton's resignation & what that tells us about @EmmanuelMacron influence in EU. It's true that pol realities in Paris mean Fr hasn't been as vocal or able to push its priorities as aggressively as it owise would (eg muted response to Draghi report) 3/
Read 11 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Sep 5
Michel Barnier, the man the pro-Brexit press loved to hate could emerge today as the new French PM. According to Fr media, Barnier (73) will be “tested” by Macron today as an elder statesman who might be broadly acceptable to a majority in the much-splintered National Assembly 1/
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
The fate of the former EU Commissioner and Brexit  negotiator will depend partly on Marine Le Pen. Two other strong candidates for PM, Bernard Cazeneuve (centre-left) and Xavier Bertrand (centre-right) fell by the wayside yesterday when Le Pen said her party would censure them 2/
Read 8 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Jul 7
‼️🇫🇷 France has today rejected government by the Far Right, but looks likely to face months of political chaos with a blocked parliament

Surprisingly, early projections suggest that the *Left alliance* might even pip the Far Right as the largest bloc in the new National Assembly
Here are @Ipsos projections by @mathieugallard Image
@Ipsos @mathieugallard In 2nd round of snap elections, early projections based on actual votes suggest Le Pen’s National Rally party won between 120 & 150 seats, far short of a majority (289) in Assembly. The four-party Left alliance was projected to win 180-215  seats & Macron's alliance 150-180 seats
Read 4 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Jul 6
From one election 🇬🇧 to another 🇫🇷

Final polls before tomorrow’s 2nd round of potentially cataclysmic French elections suggest the Far Right will fall far short of an overall majority in the National Assembly. Can we trust the polls? They are either all right or all wrong 1/ Image
Final surveys by four organisations before polls were banned at midnightgive the Far Right and allies a range between 170 and 215 seats – more than 80 short of an overall majority (289 seats) 2/
If the polls are right, the “Republican Front” – the withdrawal of over 200 third-placed Macron and Left-wing candidates to make Round 2 a straight fight with the Far Right – has been a huge success 3/
Read 13 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Jul 4
Quick thread for my non-UK followers on a few things to watch in today's 🇬🇧 election. Exit poll 10pm should tell us whether MRP polls suggesting Tory wipeout, or conventional polls suggesting a mere landslide, are right. Or whether both are wrong and it's a much closer thing 1/
What to look for in Exit poll? Reform share of vote - pollsters say anything over 12% will confirm they've damaged Tories in countless seats & massive Labour majority may happen. Lib Dem share of vote: mid-teens will confirm they have hit the Tories hard in south & south-west 2/
Timing of PM's concession. If Sunak phones Starmer in the early hours, we know the game is completely up. Moreover, will Sunak resign straight off tomorrow morning or will he say he's staying on until the Tories pick a new leader? 3/
Read 7 tweets

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