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Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
@Mij_Europe
Aug 23, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
.@BorisJohnson meets with Merkel & Macron will buy him a little time when Parliament resumes. Some Tory MPs now reluctant to rock boat while prospect of deal, however faint, still in play. Nuclear weapon of no-confidence vote unlikely to get majority until Oct if cliff edge looms
Moreover, for now, there seems to be more momentum behind legislation to extend A50 than VONC. Driven by opposition to @jeremycorbyn & huge concern he's not right man to lead temporary Govt - and so wouldn't win positive vote of confidence necessary to avoid elections
There's an interesting parallel to current political crisis in Italy, & question mark over whether PD & 5S can agree a caretaker PM (arguably the *key* issue) to avoid elections & formation of right-wing Lega Govt. Who can unite the left to avoid electoral annihilation by right?

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More from @Mij_Europe

Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Dec 12, 2024
A busy & possibly momentous day for @EmmanuelMacron. He is flying to Warsaw to discuss aid for Ukraine post-Trump and – maybe - a European peace-keeping force to guarantee any ceasefire with Moscow. He is due back in Paris by late afternoon to name a new French Prime Minister 1/
Which problem is harder: a ceasefire in the Ukraine war or a ceasefire in 🇫🇷 politics? Neither is in Macron’s gift. In Ukraine, the French president is seen as part of a possible solution; in France he is seen by some of the media as part of the problem 2/
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
Ukraine first. Macron will have bilateral talks with Polish PM Donald Tusk this morning, followed by lunch and a meeting with the President, Andrzej Duda. Officially, the agenda is continuing aid for Ukraine plus the EU trade treaty with S. America (opposed by both Fr & Pol) 3/
Read 13 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024
Excellent interview of @SecGenNATO by @HenryJFoy which echoes EU/Rutte strategy of dealing with Trump I picked up in Bxl a few weeks ago. The biggest concern among senior EU and European NATO officials is that negotiations over Ukraine’s future turn into a “mini Munich” 1/
This could involve 1/ immediate Ukrainian territorial losses to Russia 2/ further rapid Russian advances in E Ukraine 3/ big wave of Ukrainian refugees into EU & 4/ a “mindset of appeasement” to Putin that would exclude NATO but could also jeopardise its EU membership push too 2/
As one senior official who had discussed this issue with @SecGenNATO told me: “This would be a major strategic setback for the EU. The likelihood of this outcome increases if negotiations start from a position of Ukraine weakness.” 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Nov 7, 2024
The election of Donald Trump is a “decisive moment in European history”, the French President @EmmanuelMacron said today. “We must decide if we want to write that history or have it written by others”. 1/
Macron was speaking at the fifth summit of the 47-state European Political Community in Budapest. He said he had congratulated Trump but it wasn’t up to Europeans to say whether his victory was “good or bad”. They must see it as a warning to defend their own interests. 2/
“Trump was elected by the American people and will defend the interests of  Americans. That is legitimate and a good thing,” Macron said. “The only question for us to decide is whether we are going to defend the interests of Europeans”. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Sep 17, 2024
A few thoughts on the next @EU_Commission from here in Bxl. This is a realpolitik Commission: power under the next mandate will firmly rest with the EU's five largest member states - Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland - that will now do most of the running with VdL 1/
Poland's @Piotr_Serafin takes control of EU's powerful DG Budget - key as Bxl tries to reform EU finances away from redistribution to investment in bloc's geostrategic priorities. Tusk enjoys an open door in Bxl after his election result vs PiS. He's been rewarded accordingly 2/
Lots has been made over Breton's resignation & what that tells us about @EmmanuelMacron influence in EU. It's true that pol realities in Paris mean Fr hasn't been as vocal or able to push its priorities as aggressively as it owise would (eg muted response to Draghi report) 3/
Read 11 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Sep 5, 2024
Michel Barnier, the man the pro-Brexit press loved to hate could emerge today as the new French PM. According to Fr media, Barnier (73) will be “tested” by Macron today as an elder statesman who might be broadly acceptable to a majority in the much-splintered National Assembly 1/
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
The fate of the former EU Commissioner and Brexit  negotiator will depend partly on Marine Le Pen. Two other strong candidates for PM, Bernard Cazeneuve (centre-left) and Xavier Bertrand (centre-right) fell by the wayside yesterday when Le Pen said her party would censure them 2/
Read 8 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Jul 7, 2024
‼️🇫🇷 France has today rejected government by the Far Right, but looks likely to face months of political chaos with a blocked parliament

Surprisingly, early projections suggest that the *Left alliance* might even pip the Far Right as the largest bloc in the new National Assembly
Here are @Ipsos projections by @mathieugallard Image
@Ipsos @mathieugallard In 2nd round of snap elections, early projections based on actual votes suggest Le Pen’s National Rally party won between 120 & 150 seats, far short of a majority (289) in Assembly. The four-party Left alliance was projected to win 180-215  seats & Macron's alliance 150-180 seats
Read 4 tweets

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