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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Jul 7

‼️🇫🇷 France has today rejected government by the Far Right, but looks likely to face months of political chaos with a blocked parliament

Surprisingly, early projections suggest that the *Left alliance* might even pip the Far Right as the largest bloc in the new National Assembly

Here are @Ipsos projections by @mathieugallard

@Ipsos @mathieugallard In 2nd round of snap elections, early projections based on actual votes suggest Le Pen’s National Rally party won between 120 & 150 seats, far short of a majority (289) in Assembly. The four-party Left alliance was projected to win 180-215 seats & Macron's alliance 150-180 seats

Read 4 tweets

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Jul 6

From one election 🇬🇧 to another 🇫🇷

Final polls before tomorrow’s 2nd round of potentially cataclysmic French elections suggest the Far Right will fall far short of an overall majority in the National Assembly. Can we trust the polls? They are either all right or all wrong 1/

Final surveys by four organisations before polls were banned at midnightgive the Far Right and allies a range between 170 and 215 seats – more than 80 short of an overall majority (289 seats) 2/

If the polls are right, the “Republican Front” – the withdrawal of over 200 third-placed Macron and Left-wing candidates to make Round 2 a straight fight with the Far Right – has been a huge success 3/

Read 13 tweets

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Jul 4

Quick thread for my non-UK followers on a few things to watch in today's 🇬🇧 election. Exit poll 10pm should tell us whether MRP polls suggesting Tory wipeout, or conventional polls suggesting a mere landslide, are right. Or whether both are wrong and it's a much closer thing 1/

What to look for in Exit poll? Reform share of vote - pollsters say anything over 12% will confirm they've damaged Tories in countless seats & massive Labour majority may happen. Lib Dem share of vote: mid-teens will confirm they have hit the Tories hard in south & south-west 2/

Timing of PM's concession. If Sunak phones Starmer in the early hours, we know the game is completely up. Moreover, will Sunak resign straight off tomorrow morning or will he say he's staying on until the Tories pick a new leader? 3/

Read 7 tweets

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Jun 30

‼️🇫🇷
Almost 26% of the French electorate had voted by midday in the first round of the potentially apocalyptic French elections today - suggesting very high turnout in the late 60's % by the time all the polls close tonight. 1/

Turnout is key to the outcome of this election – and not because there may be a late surge for one camp or another. All boats have risen with the tide so far. High turnout does mean, however, that any more third place candidates will survive into Round 2 next Sun. 2/

By the latest forecasts there could be as many as 250 three way “theoretical” three-way contests (a record) out of 577 next weekend. To qualify for R2 , you have to come first or second OR take 12.5% of the registered vote. The higher the turnout, the more candidates qualify. 3/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Jun 29

‼️🇫🇷 Final polls before tomorrow’s French parliamentary elections make alarming reading for @EmmanuelMacron, Ukraine and the EU. Some polls now foresee a possible majority of seats for the far right in Round 2 next week; the average of polls still sees a blocked parliament 1/

Three pollsters - Odoxa, Harris and Elabe - now see a possible far right majority (289 seats plus) in the National Assembly after next Sunday’s second round. Here is the Odoxa graphic which projects the far right could win 265-305 seats out of 577 2/

On the other hand, the final daily tracking poll by Ifop for Le Figaro – a reliable guide in the past - puts the far right up half a point on 36.5% of the popular vote but still short of an overall majority next week with a projected range of 225-265 seats. See graphic 3/

Read 12 tweets

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Jun 27

What happens if the far right @MLP_officiel @J_Bardella @RNational_off sweeps to power in France on 7 July, with a majority in the National Assembly? 1/

There is an emerging view in Bxl & EU capitals that the RN will “moderate” - they'll do a @GiorgiaMeloni. With their eyes on @Elysee in 2027, the last thing they'll want is a “@trussliz crisis”. This is naive. The RN won't want chaos, but they will also relish a fight with Bxl 2/

When presenting his revised ideas on Monday, @J_Bardella did shelve many of his most expensive & problematic pledges (eg abolishing VAT on lots of goods & exempting under 30’s from income tax). But at the same time many fiscally consequential bits remain 3/

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