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Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
@Mij_Europe
Aug 23, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
.@BorisJohnson meets with Merkel & Macron will buy him a little time when Parliament resumes. Some Tory MPs now reluctant to rock boat while prospect of deal, however faint, still in play. Nuclear weapon of no-confidence vote unlikely to get majority until Oct if cliff edge looms
Moreover, for now, there seems to be more momentum behind legislation to extend A50 than VONC. Driven by opposition to @jeremycorbyn & huge concern he's not right man to lead temporary Govt - and so wouldn't win positive vote of confidence necessary to avoid elections
There's an interesting parallel to current political crisis in Italy, & question mark over whether PD & 5S can agree a caretaker PM (arguably the *key* issue) to avoid elections & formation of right-wing Lega Govt. Who can unite the left to avoid electoral annihilation by right?

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More from @Mij_Europe

Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
May 12
European elections will take place on 6-9 June. Their outcome will dictate 1/ who will lead EU institutions - @EU_Commission @eucopresident @Europarl_EN @eu_eeas - over next 5 years & 2/ what the EU's political priorities will be. Here's the picture I have after a week in Bxl 1/
.@vonderleyen is likely to win 2nd term as @EU_Commission president. @EPP will top EU poll - she is their candidate. In Bxl last week, senior officials from all EU capitals spoke highly about her tenure, even if there remain some concerns about her centralising governing style 2/
.@EmmanuelMacron has been the most ambivalent, but even he recognises @vonderleyen strengths. He just wont give her a blank cheque: @Elysee is holding back its support in order to shape priorities of next Commission - specifically wrt to more EU spending on security & defence 3/
Read 22 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Apr 25
.@EmmanuelMacron warned today that the European Union and the European model of civilisation could “die” unless steps were taken in the next 5 years to create a European “power” which protected itself from Russian military aggression & Chinese & American protectionism. Thread 1/
In a sweeping 2h speech at Sorbonne University in Paris, Macron called inter alia for a doubled EU budget and the scrapping of Brussels' rules on competition and trade to allow Europe to defend itself from foreign domination and seize the initiative on green industries and AI 2/
He called for EU countries to build a new common European defence strategy (within Nato and not a |“European army”) and repeated his suggestion that France’s nuclear deterrent could become part of the defence of Europe 3/
Read 19 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Apr 19
Thoughtful piece by @martinkettle. But I remain of the view that @UKLabour and @Keir_Starmer Govt will be much more ambitious towards the EU, including possibly on stuff like a CU, in its first term than consensus suggests. Thread 1/

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Id discount almost everything Labour is saying in public (on EU, fiscal policy etc) in run up to election. If Tories run on their record, they'll lose badly. So Lab will be cautious. The only metric that matters for Lab ambition on EU will be size of its majority on other side 2/
If majority is >100 & it looks like a two-term Govt, more ambition will follow - not only from the UK, but also the EU. Red lines will be easier to move if the runway looks like it's 10 not 5y long. There'll also be little benefit in waiting & arguably bigger risks in doing so 3/
Read 12 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Apr 15
France finds itself in an uncomfortable bind in the confrontation between Israel and Iran – de facto involved on the Israeli side but having no influence on the actions of the Isaeli government 1/
France was one of three countries - with US & UK – which fired anti-missile missiles at Iranian missiles and drones as they flew towards Israel at the weekend 2/
Officially, these actions – revealed by the foreign minister @steph_sejourne on Sunday – were to protect French miliary bases in Jordan and Iraq. But France, in effect, took part in the conflict between the two states 3/
Read 11 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Mar 21
On Ukraine, @EmmanuelMacron has made a spectacular two-year journey from apparent dove to leading hawk. Why? French officials say the facts have changed and Macron has changed with them. Is that a full explanation? A VERY LONG historical thread... 1/
Since Feb 2022 the French President has evolved from would-be Putin intermediary to implacable Putin foe. From “Don’t humiliate Russia” (May/June 2022), he has shifted to “Russia must be defeated” (June 2023) & now “Don’t exclude sending western ground forces” (February 2024). 2/
The Elysée Palace insists that Macron has been consistent - in context. Here is an attempt to retrace his journey with my thoughts on how Macron’s thinking at each stage has changed and why. 3/
Read 36 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Mar 13
The French National Assembly last night overwhelmingly approved President Emmanuel Macron’s 10 year security pact with Ukraine – but lambasted his suggestion that French and other Nato troops might serve on Ukrainian soil. 1/
The lower house of the French parliament voted 372-99 to endorse a bilateral security pact with Kyiv signed last month. But Macron’s controversial boots-on-the-ground initiative (not part of the pact) was disowned by all opposition groups from far-right to far left. 2/
The debate was (intentionally) awkward for @MLP_officiel, who has a long record of pol/financial collaboration with Putin. How would she vote? In the end, the 88 Lepennist deputies abstained, saying they supported Kyiv but not parts of pact referring to Ukr joining EU/Nato. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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