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Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
@Mij_Europe
Aug 23, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
.@BorisJohnson meets with Merkel & Macron will buy him a little time when Parliament resumes. Some Tory MPs now reluctant to rock boat while prospect of deal, however faint, still in play. Nuclear weapon of no-confidence vote unlikely to get majority until Oct if cliff edge looms
Moreover, for now, there seems to be more momentum behind legislation to extend A50 than VONC. Driven by opposition to @jeremycorbyn & huge concern he's not right man to lead temporary Govt - and so wouldn't win positive vote of confidence necessary to avoid elections
There's an interesting parallel to current political crisis in Italy, & question mark over whether PD & 5S can agree a caretaker PM (arguably the *key* issue) to avoid elections & formation of right-wing Lega Govt. Who can unite the left to avoid electoral annihilation by right?

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More from @Mij_Europe

Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Apr 3
🇫🇷🇪🇺🇺🇸 The war begins. President @EmmanuelMacron has just called on big European  businesses to freeze all investments in the United States in retaliation for the “brutal and unjustified” import duties imposed by Donald Trump. 1/
Speaking to an emergency conference of French businesses directly threatened by the 20% tariffs on EU exports, Macron said: “ We are not naive. We are going to protect ourselves. 2/
“It’s important that all investment, planned or arteady announced, should be suspended until we have clarified things with the US.” 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Mar 7
Some thoughts on the European response to the chaos now emanating from the White House - on Ukraine and more broadly, based on chats with senior European policymakers directly or indirectly involved in formulating the bloc's response 1/
It's clear to me that EU leaders & their most senior officials are clearly seized of this moment. They aren't under any illusions about the risks to Ukraine or European security. US alignment with Russia can do two things: result in panic or focus. Right now we're seeing focus 2/
Making €bn available for Ukraine & the EU's own security & defence is not a sufficient response. But it is a necessary one. So the EU has unleashed national budgets, the EU budget, the EU's borrowing capacity & private capital via the EIB, to enable much more defence spending 3/
Read 13 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Mar 2
‼️🇫🇷🇬🇧 The Franco-British ceasefire plan for Ukraine involves an initial one month “truce” to halt all air and sea fighting and all attacks on energy infrastructure, President Emmanuel Macron has revealed. 1/
In an interview with Le Figaro, conducted on his way to the London summit and published tonight, Macron also called for European nations to agree a new defence spending target of 3% or 3.5% of GDP (compared to 2% at present). 2/
Macron said the ceasefire under discussion with the UK PM Keir Starmer and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zekensky would come in two stages. In the first, one-month- long phase, it would apply only to the air, sea and energy installations. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Feb 20
Macron gave surprisingly upbeat commentary on Trump-Russia-Ukraine crisis in 80min live video conversation with the French public tonight. He said “uncertainty” generated by Trump could, in the end, be “good for Ukraine & good for Europe” but needed to be “structured” properly 1/
Macron said he would tell President Trump when he flies to Washington on Monday “you cannot afford to be weak with President Putin….Weakness is not you. It’s not in your nature. It’s not in your interest. How can you  be credible with China if you are weak with Putin?” /2
The French President carefully avoided the kind of push-back against Trump’s inaccurate comments on the Ukraine war which has been voiced by other senior members of his Govt. “Donald Trump generates uncertainty amongst others because he wants to do deals,” Macron said 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Feb 17
Europe should view Trump’s wrecking ball approach to Nato and negotiations with Russia on the Ukraine war as “an opportunity”, not just a threat, President Emmanuel Macron will tell a hastily convened informal summit of European leaders at the Elysée Palace today. 1/
Although the meeting, called by Macron,  may appear like a panicked response to the aggressive and often conflicting noises emanating from Washington, the French president will ask fellow leaders to avoid the temptation to start a transatlantic war of words. 2/
He will suggest that Europeans should a) conditionally welcome Trump’s “peace” initiative and b) commit themselves to rearmament.  In other words, to quote another US President, “talk softly but carry a big stick”. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Dec 12, 2024
A busy & possibly momentous day for @EmmanuelMacron. He is flying to Warsaw to discuss aid for Ukraine post-Trump and – maybe - a European peace-keeping force to guarantee any ceasefire with Moscow. He is due back in Paris by late afternoon to name a new French Prime Minister 1/
Which problem is harder: a ceasefire in the Ukraine war or a ceasefire in 🇫🇷 politics? Neither is in Macron’s gift. In Ukraine, the French president is seen as part of a possible solution; in France he is seen by some of the media as part of the problem 2/
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
Ukraine first. Macron will have bilateral talks with Polish PM Donald Tusk this morning, followed by lunch and a meeting with the President, Andrzej Duda. Officially, the agenda is continuing aid for Ukraine plus the EU trade treaty with S. America (opposed by both Fr & Pol) 3/
Read 13 tweets

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