Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
MD Europe @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @hmtreasury @EU_Commission. Senior Research Fellow @LSEEI. My views. Seeking analytical truth 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 💙 #FBPE Profile picture Dame Chris🌟🇺🇦😷 #RejoinEU #FBPE #GTTO🔶️ Profile picture Hugh Sainsbury #FBPE Profile picture Birger Leth Profile picture meejahoar (Liz/she/her) 🇺🇦🇪🇺🌈🏳️‍🌈⚧🏳️‍⚧️ Profile picture 16 subscribed
Sep 25 8 tweets 2 min read
Like ships that pass in the night…France and the UK are on radically different courses in the battle against climate change after announcements by President @EmmanuelMacron tonight intended to reduce French carbon emissions by 108m tonnes a year by 2030 1/ UKG is pushing back carbon reduction targets & it's reported, scaling down rail projects, like HS2. France acc to Macron plan, will produce 1m electric cars in the next 4y & spend €700bn on expanding or building fast, regional commuter train networks in 13 French conurbations 2/
Sep 19 11 tweets 2 min read
There's a lot of negativity about @Keir_Starmer trip to Paris today to see @EmmanuelMacron. A lot of “@UKLabour is delusional & don't understand EU” kind of thing. That it's all pointless given “no CU, no SM” redlines. That's premature. There's also a positive case to be made 1/ Firstly, beyond what the UK “can offer” EU, the value & importance of
more consistent, more serious & more forward-leaning engagement shouldn't be underestimated. There has been a total lack of UK political leadership vis EU & if Starmer delivers that it will build goodwill 2/
Sep 14 17 tweets 3 min read
There’s a predictable avalanche of disinformation and hypocrisy in the DTel, Sun etc today on @Keir_Starmer hopes of a “migrant returns agreement with the EU” if/when he becomes PM 1/ A deal with the EU is a sensible aim & Sunak's Govt also seeks one. It can only happen with give & take on both sides; Sunak/Braverman want EU to “take migrants back”; but they refuse to take a share of migrants arriving in EU – a minority of whom are obsessed with reaching UK 2/
Aug 18 9 tweets 2 min read
Today’s front-page splash in once-sensible @Telegraph encapsulates the hysteria, disinformation & one-sidedness of coverage of Channel migrant “crisis” in rightwing UK press. Channel crossings are DOWN 17% this yr but DTel tells its readers France has “stopped fewer migrants” 1/ Image The figures are based on the number of people intercepted by French police on the beaches. It takes no account of the other work done by French authorities to crack down on smuggling gangs and stop asylum seekers reaching the beaches in the first place 2/
Aug 2 13 tweets 2 min read
The coup in Niger is a big defeat for President @EmmanuelMacron Africa policy. But it is a failure which has many causes and which has been many years in the making. It has serious potential consequences for the whole of the West, not just for France 1/ Niger was France’s last ally in the Sahel belt of countries and the new base for the 1,500 French soldiers in the Barkhan anti-Islamist terrorist force (already booted out of Mali after a similar coup) 2/
Jul 20 15 tweets 3 min read
The road to EU strategic autonomy will be long, winding & full of wrong-turns. The “Fiona Scott Morton affair” is the perfect example. For all its achievements & ambitions, the EU remains uncertain & divided on what it means to become an econ superpower to rival the US & China 1/ Who is Fiona Scott Morton you ask? She is one of the acknowledged world experts on Big Tech. She's an econ prof at Yale. She used to work for @BarackObama administration. She has also been a high-paid consultant for US tech giants. Most imp of all (it seems) she is an American 2/
Jul 4 20 tweets 4 min read
In December, I'm confident the EU will open - immediately or imminently - accession negotiations with Ukraine. Because EU leaders have understood that admitting Ukraine into the EU will be Europe's single biggest geopolitical contribution to the war

Thread 1/ The seriousness of EU's commitment to Ukraine is evident by the discussions in Bxl/capitals about what Ukraine's entry into EU would mean for EU. The implications will be profound - in Bxl, this is now referred to as the question of EU’s “absorption capacity” 2/
Jun 16 14 tweets 4 min read
EU finance ministers meet in Luxembourg today for their first pol discussion on reforming the EU's fiscal framework (the Stability & Growth Pact). The stakes could not be higher: Germany continues to push to have high debt member states cut their debt/GDP ratios by 1% per year 1/ The crux of argument relates @EU_Commission plan to negotiate bilateral, highly bespoke, debt reduction paths with each individual member state; Germany (& its silent supporters) wants each country to commit to a certain minimum level of adjustment each year (hence the 1%) 2/
Jun 9 10 tweets 3 min read
.@BorisJohnson “honours list”, if you can call it that, finally reaches the light of day and it’s fairly stomach-wrenching 1/ Virtually everyone on the list is a “mate” or someone who worked for him. Who said the Lords is there to reward ability and achievement? 2/
May 31 22 tweets 4 min read
Important speech by French President @EmmanuelMacron on the defence of Europe and European independence at the @GLOBSEC forum in Bratislava this afternoon – important for what he said but also for what he did NOT say 1/ Macron said Nato was no longer “brain dead” (his diagnosis in 2019) because Vladimir Putin had “woken it with the worst of electroshocks” by invading Ukraine. A European defence policy was more essential than ever, he said, but a “European pillar within Nato” 2/
May 20 12 tweets 4 min read
Important parliamentary elections take place in Greece tomorrow. The conservative ruling New Democracy is poised to come first, but a Govt is unlikely to be formed anytime soon and a second election is likely later in the summer 1/ The vote will be held under a proportional representation system, which means New Democracy would need 45% support to achieve a majority. If he doesnt get that tomorrow (unlikely), PM @kmitsotakis has repeatedly said he prefers a majority Govt & would opt for a second election 2/
May 2 12 tweets 3 min read
A lot of pushback to my earlier tweet on the trajectory of 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations if the opposition @kilicdarogluk wins on 14/28 May. But the assumption that an opposition win would result in a substantial reboot & jump forward in relations is naive - & not how many on EU side see it 1/ Before I get into the substance: this is not my normative view. Just my analytical assessment of the debate in Brussels & EU capitals should @kilicdarogluk win. People are free to agree or disagree. But if you suggest I'm spinning for the AKP, I shall block you unreservedly 😌 2/
Apr 26 16 tweets 7 min read
Today @EU_Commission will finally table its legislative proposals to reform EU fiscal rules, the Stability & Growth Pact (SGP). In terms of @vonderleyen priorities, this is a BIG deal - second only to a deal on Ukraine's EU accession. A thread on the politics & what comes next 1/ The big fight is Bxl vs Berlin. The Commission wants to develop highly bespoke, tailored debt reduction paths for each member state. Berlin wants uniform reduction targets all countries apply. @c_lindner re-articulated this position in yesterday's FT 2/…
Apr 20 4 tweets 2 min read
‼️ Shock horror: Marine Le Pen 47%, Emmanuel Macron 42%

Opinion polls are invaluable; they can also be mischievous and misleading. @EmmanuelMacron and MLP will never face each other in a presidential election again. Why match them in a poll for Paris Match, you might ask? 1/ Image This poll by IFOP is not even a poll of voting preferences. It asks which personality do you prefer (not which you would vote for), at a time when Macron is unpopular for trying to reform the pension system and MLP is mostly hiding and smiling 2/
Apr 10 16 tweets 4 min read
.@EmmanuelMacron has angered many people (again) by urging Europe to stand aside from US-China quarrels over Taiwan. “We don’t want to get involved in bloc v bloc logic,” he said. The EU should eventually aim to become a “3rd bloc”, strategically independent of BOTH China & US 1/ .@EmmanuelMacron timing is poor. To make these remarks as Chinese military exercises encircled Taiwain – and just after his state visit to China - was a mistake. It will be interpreted as appeasement of Beijing and a green light to Chinese aggression 2/
Mar 22 11 tweets 3 min read
President @EmmanuelMacron has just compared violent protests against his controversial pension reform to the assault on the US Capitol and promised a series of goodies for workers – including profit-sharing – if the country returned to normal. 1/ In his first public comments since he imposed the pension reform by special constitutional powers last Thurs, Macron gave a TV interview in which he “regretted” that he had failed to persuade the country that it must work longer to preserve its prosperity and social model. 2/
Mar 16 7 tweets 2 min read
.@EmmanuelMacron faces a career-defining decision in the next couple of hours as @labboudles spells out in this excellent piece. Should he risk allowing a perilously close vote on his flagship pension reform in National Assembly at 3pm Paris time?  1/… His other option is to short-circuit the vote and order his government to use its “joker” (Art 49.3 of the Constitution) to impose the deeply controversial legislation delaying the official retirement age in France from  62 to 64 by 2030 without a vote 2/
Mar 10 13 tweets 3 min read
The right-wing, pro-Brexit UK media will struggle to know how to frame today’s France-UK summit. The UK is more than doubling its payments to France to £480m over 3y for more action to stop small migrants boats crossing the Channel. Is that a) breakthrough or b) a scandal? 1/ The right wing, French-bashing media might also ask whether the obvious chemistry and friendship between the hated (by them) Emmanuel Macron and Rishi Sunak in Paris yesterday was a) good thing or b) a threat to Britain’s existence as a proud, post-Brexit nation 2/
Mar 9 4 tweets 2 min read
The bromance starts here. Prime Minister @RishiSunak said tonight that President @EmmanuelMacron was “definitely a great friend” of Britain. He was speaking in an interview with Le Figaro on the eve of tomorrow’s Franco-British summit in Paris. 1/ In his first question, the French interviewer asked Sunak to reply to the question posed last year to  his predecessor, Liz Truss. Was Macron a friend or enemy of the UK? Truss said at the time "the jury was out". Sunak said: “definitely a great friend.” 2/
Mar 9 13 tweets 5 min read
There will be no magic solution to the Channel migrant problem when Prime Minister @RishiSunak meets President @EmmanuelMacron for the first Anglo-French summit in five years in Paris tomorrow. Why not? Because no instant solution exists 1/ The summit will, however, be important, both symbolically and substantially.  It will re-launch a British-French partnership after the wilful frog-bashing and Macron-bashing of the @BorisJohnson years and the @trussliz weeks 2/
Mar 7 6 tweets 2 min read
Another difficult day - possibly weeks - for @EmmanuelMacron, as unions try to “shut down” key sectors of the French economy indefinitely, given their on-going opposition to the Govt's plans to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 by 2030 1/ More than 300 marches across France are planned today. Unions hope to exceed their Jan record of 1.27 million protesters on the streets. Govt insiders predict as many as 1.4 million could turn out - if so, this would be the biggest demo in France for 3 decades 2/