A busy & possibly momentous day for @EmmanuelMacron. He is flying to Warsaw to discuss aid for Ukraine post-Trump and – maybe - a European peace-keeping force to guarantee any ceasefire with Moscow. He is due back in Paris by late afternoon to name a new French Prime Minister 1/ Which problem is harder: a ceasefire in the Ukraine war or a ceasefire in 🇫🇷 politics? Neither is in Macron’s gift. In Ukraine, the French president is seen as part of a possible solution; in France he is seen by some of the media as part of the problem 2/
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Excellent interview of @SecGenNATO by @HenryJFoy which echoes EU/Rutte strategy of dealing with Trump I picked up in Bxl a few weeks ago. The biggest concern among senior EU and European NATO officials is that negotiations over Ukraine’s future turn into a “mini Munich” 1/ This could involve 1/ immediate Ukrainian territorial losses to Russia 2/ further rapid Russian advances in E Ukraine 3/ big wave of Ukrainian refugees into EU & 4/ a “mindset of appeasement” to Putin that would exclude NATO but could also jeopardise its EU membership push too 2/

The election of Donald Trump is a “decisive moment in European history”, the French President @EmmanuelMacron said today. “We must decide if we want to write that history or have it written by others”. 1/ Macron was speaking at the fifth summit of the 47-state European Political Community in Budapest. He said he had congratulated Trump but it wasn’t up to Europeans to say whether his victory was “good or bad”. They must see it as a warning to defend their own interests. 2/

A few thoughts on the next @EU_Commission from here in Bxl. This is a realpolitik Commission: power under the next mandate will firmly rest with the EU's five largest member states - Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland - that will now do most of the running with VdL 1/ Poland's @Piotr_Serafin takes control of EU's powerful DG Budget - key as Bxl tries to reform EU finances away from redistribution to investment in bloc's geostrategic priorities. Tusk enjoys an open door in Bxl after his election result vs PiS. He's been rewarded accordingly 2/

Michel Barnier, the man the pro-Brexit press loved to hate could emerge today as the new French PM. According to Fr media, Barnier (73) will be “tested” by Macron today as an elder statesman who might be broadly acceptable to a majority in the much-splintered National Assembly 1/ lemonde.fr/politique/arti…

‼️🇫🇷 France has today rejected government by the Far Right, but looks likely to face months of political chaos with a blocked parliament

Surprisingly, early projections suggest that the *Left alliance* might even pip the Far Right as the largest bloc in the new National Assembly Here are @Ipsos projections by @mathieugallard

From one election 🇬🇧 to another 🇫🇷

Final polls before tomorrow’s 2nd round of potentially cataclysmic French elections suggest the Far Right will fall far short of an overall majority in the National Assembly. Can we trust the polls? They are either all right or all wrong 1/ Final surveys by four organisations before polls were banned at midnightgive the Far Right and allies a range between 170 and 215 seats – more than 80 short of an overall majority (289 seats) 2/

Quick thread for my non-UK followers on a few things to watch in today's 🇬🇧 election. Exit poll 10pm should tell us whether MRP polls suggesting Tory wipeout, or conventional polls suggesting a mere landslide, are right. Or whether both are wrong and it's a much closer thing 1/ What to look for in Exit poll? Reform share of vote - pollsters say anything over 12% will confirm they've damaged Tories in countless seats & massive Labour majority may happen. Lib Dem share of vote: mid-teens will confirm they have hit the Tories hard in south & south-west 2/

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Almost 26% of the French electorate had voted by midday in the first round of the potentially apocalyptic French elections today - suggesting very high turnout in the late 60's % by the time all the polls close tonight. 1/ Turnout is key to the outcome of this election –  and not because there may be a late surge for one camp or another. All boats have risen with the tide so far. High turnout does mean, however, that any more third place candidates will survive into Round 2 next Sun. 2/

‼️🇫🇷 Final polls before tomorrow’s French parliamentary elections make alarming reading for @EmmanuelMacron, Ukraine and the EU. Some polls now foresee a possible majority of seats for the far right in Round 2 next week; the average of polls still sees a blocked parliament 1/ Three pollsters  - Odoxa, Harris and Elabe - now see a possible far right majority (289 seats plus) in the National Assembly after next Sunday’s second round. Here is the Odoxa graphic which projects the far right could win 265-305 seats out of 577 2/

What happens if the far right @MLP_officiel @J_Bardella @RNational_off sweeps to power in France on 7 July, with a majority in the National Assembly? 1/ There is an emerging view in Bxl & EU capitals that the RN will “moderate” - they'll do a @GiorgiaMeloni. With their eyes on @Elysee in 2027, the last thing they'll want is a “@trussliz crisis”. This is naive. The RN won't want chaos, but they will also relish a fight with Bxl 2/

France seems to be heading towards a hung parliament - but one where *no* majority exists in the Assembly to sustain *any* Govt. There is no precedent in recent French politics for such an impasse. For that you have to go back to the days of the 4th, not 5th, Republic. Thread
1/ No previous President of 5th Republic has faced such a situation. Constitutional experts & politicos disagree about what this would look like. But there are some examples back from days of 4th Republic when Govt's came & went through “revolving doors”. One lasted only 3 days
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A few things to know about @EU_Commission decision today re an Excessive Deficit Procedure for France (& 6 others). All the Commission is doing today is saying France is breaching the 3% ceiling. It is not being put in an EDP - it is the 1st formal step towards opening an EDP 1/ The next step will be to solicit an opinion from EU member states. Only then, taking into account the view from EU capitals, will @EU_Commission formally open an EDP – prob in July. Member states may still opt to put a brake on the process. That's unlikely, but is possible 2/

It is true that as Head of State, @EmmanuelMacron would have so-called “reserved domain” responsibility over France's Europe, defence and foreign affairs. But an adversarial PM, even without a parliamentary majority, could still undermine Macron's agenda & France's role in EU 1/ .@EmmanuelMacron would sit in the European Council. There is only one seat and that would be his. In previous cohabitations, both the President & the PM would turn up to Bxl, as was the case with Chirac and Jospin, to keep an eye on each other. That is no longer possible 2/

The snap French elections are turning into a series of spectacular train-wrecks on the French Right. After the implosion of the remains of the post-Gaullist party, Les Républicains, it was the turn of Eric Zemmour’s far right party, Reconquête! to leave the tracks last night. 1/ Zemmour excluded his no2, Marion Maréchal – Le Pen’s niece – on live TV after she urged party supporters to vote for Lepennist candidates in 30 June/7 July elections. “This is the world record of treachery” Zemmour said 2/

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President @EmmanuelMacron today dismissed suggestions that he would resign if the Far Right wins the snap parliamentary elections he called for June 30/July 7. “That’s absurd…a lie that I want to strangle,” he told a marathon press conference in Paris. 1/ Macron – sometimes combative, sometimes passionate , sometimes bogged down in detail – appealed to French voters to reject Marine Le Pen’s “party of Non” which would  “impoverish France” because it had no coherent answer to the country’s “anger” and distress. 2/

The remnants of the once mighty Gaullist movement exploded into a noisy public brawl today after Eric Ciotti, the President of the centre-right Les Républicains (LR) offered an alliance with Marine Pen’s Far Right in the snap French parliamentary elections later this month. 1/ Almost all senior members of LR (successor to parties of De Gaulle, Chirac & Sarkozy) repudiated the offer by Ciotti, the hard-line deputy for Nice. 2 senators resigned from the party. A senior party official,  Geoffroy Didier, said: “Ciotti’s Salad Nicoise makes me throw up.” 2/

The enormity of the gamble @EmmanuelMacron has taken has not been lost on the most senior of EU officials in Bxl & EU capitals. Many are furious. It risks not only the stability of France & the EU, but also the bloc's ambitions on security & defence and longer term - Ukraine 1/ For months EU capitals have been toying with the idea of more common borrowing for EU security & defence. Paris is the biggest champion of the idea. Some call this a “€bond for defence”. Others a “Next GenerationEU 2.0” - a copycat of €750bn the EU brought online after Covid 2/

There is no precedent in modern French politics for a President calling an early parliamentary election from a position of weakness. @EmmanuelMacron has taken an enormous gamble - with his own reputation & legacy, as well as on the future of France. What is he thinking? Thread 1/ It was very likely Macron was going to be forced into an early parliamentary election in the autumn in any case. He's judged that he wd gain advantage from seizing the initiative with an early poll & make a virtue of “going to the people” before he was cornered into doing so 2/

Final polls suggest @EmmanuelMacron faces a humiliating drubbing by Marine Le Pen’s Far Right when France votes in the European election today. The last IFOP tracking poll for Le Figaro on Friday gave Le Pen’s camp an 18.5 point lead – the highest since the tracker began. 1/ Other polls give Le Pen’s candidate Jordan Bardella a 16-point lead over the candidate for Macron’s centrist alliance, Valérie Hayer. A defeat on such a scale will heighten chances that Macron’s govt will lose a censure motion this Autumn – possibly forcing early elections. 2/

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Several Nato countries have agreed to send military instructors to Ukraine in “coalition” with France, President @EmmanuelMacron said tonight.  1/ “You asked me whether France is ready (to send instructors to Ukraine) alone. I can tell you that we are not alone. Several of our partners have already agreed to do this ,” Macron said at a joint press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Elysée Palace. 2/