Thread by @DM_Deluca

This is a another (long) thread about the Italian political crisis but it has also something new!

a) Insightful political analysis
b) Highly memable stuff
c) A lot, and I mean a lot, of drama
d) The word "machiavellianism"

Plus: I am Italian!

1/ So, if you are here you probably already know that over the past year Italy has been governed by a "populist alliance" formed by the League Party and the Five Star Movement

2/ The alliance was praised by Steve Bannon, saluted by Marine Le Pen and thought by the EU establishment to be the Union's threat number one (or 2 or 3: depends on where you place the Polish and the Hungarian governments)

3/ In reality the so called "Yellow-Green" government was a shaky alliance between a right wing party with a strong base in the rich north (the League) and a more bland populist party rooted in the impoverished south (the M5S)

4/ After the March 2018 election, the M5S was the strongest party in numerical terms, but in a few months the charismatic League leader Salvini, also Minister of the Interior, managed to monopolize the public debate with his often openly racist anti-immigration agenda

5/ The government didn't accomplish much apart from tightening the grip against immigration (a grip already set brutally tight by the former center-left government)

6/ Reckless in word but slow in action it walked a safe economic path and didn't pull through any of the reforms it promised

7/ But with the media and political agenda obsessively focused on migration issues (portrayed nearly everytime as a negative phenomenon) and with the country slightly benefiting from the weak European economic recovery, the League soared at the polls

8/ At the European election last March the League became Italy’s largest party squeezing out the other center-right party, Forza Italia, which is still in the grip of the ageing Silvio Berlusconi, and stealing votes from their M5S ally led by the inexperienced Vicepremier Di Maio

9/ After the victory, Salvini upped the ante and the greatly weakened M5S had to meekly accept each of his growing requests. With a new economic recession looming at the horizon, many thought that Salvini was so strong that he could provoke an earlier election

10/ Without the M5S and with a new parliamentary majority, he could then survive the recession until it would wear out. From pundits to Wall Street's analysts, everyone thought that it would be just a matter of time before Salvini would pull such a trick

11/ But then he totally miscalculated. Without consulting his advisors, he provoked a crisis in the middle of the summer break. He presented a motion of no confidence against his own government and asked it to be discussed before the end of summer recession

12/ The speaker of the Senate, Salvini's political ally, quickly summoned the MPs from their holidays. Suddenly it became clear that it wasn't the usual political bullying of the weakened M5S, but a serious political crisis

13/ Faced with the prospect of a League landslide at the snap election, M5S and the center-left PD, once irreconcilable enemies, started talking about the possibility of forming a new majority

14/ But the alliance had a big obstacle: former PD Premier Matteo Renzi, who for years has been the favorite target of the M5S, often receiving lurid and baseless attacks. Renzi was known as the M5S staunchest adversary and after last year’s election he vetoed a PD-M5S alliance

15/ But a couple of days after Salvini’s coup, to the astonishment of his friend and foe alike, Renzi was among the first PD leaders to welcome the possibility of a new majority with his once sworn enemies

16/ The prospect of a new majority between PD and M5S made Salvini backtrack. One week after having engineered the crisis, in a move of machiavellian cynicism, he completely reversed his position and started to make political peace offers to the M5S

17/ This week Salvini even slipped out that he was considering to renounce his position as Minister of the Interior to preserve the alliance with the M5S

18/ Vicepremier and M5S political leader Luigi Di Maio was keen to the offer because he knew that his hold on his shaky party leadership relied on the alliance with Salvini's League. Plus, an alliance with his archenemy Renzi was less than palatable.

19/ The talks were just starting when the old and venerable comedian Beppe Grillo, the mythicized founder of the M5S, stepped out of one of his cyclical periods of self-imposed political exiles and summoned Di Maio and all M5S leaders

20/ During a dinner at his summer villa in Tuscany he briskly told them to stop cooperating with Salvini. The press release that night said that the leaders were "unanimous" in their decision to puish Salvini and opening a new chapter

21/ If after that Di Maio still had some hope for restoring the alliance with Salvini, it was soon to be squashed by another peculiar political character: the Premier Giuseppe Conte

22/ Once an unknown provincial law professor with no political experience and a slightly too shiny CV, Conte was picked personally by Salvini and Di Maio as the Prime Minister of their new government

23/ Mocked for being a puppet, Conte was often personally humiliated by the League leader who systematically stepped out of his boundaries, usurped other ministers’ prerogatives, and enjoyed being celebrated as the most powerful man in Italy by the international press

24/ This week, Conte had finally the chance to pay back for all the humiliation. After Salvini provoked the crisis, Conte announced that, as his right, he would address the Senate, the upper chamber of the Parliament

25/ Conte held his speech in the middle of the secretive negotiations to restore the alliance between members of the M5S and the League. Everyone in Italy was waiting. Was Conte to make an opening? Was his speech going to be conciliatory?

26/ Conte excoriated Salvini. Usually circuitous and indirect, as Italian attorneys usually are, he spoke bluntly and directly. He criticized Salvini’s cynicism and opportunism, his lack of respect for the institutions, his laziness and hypocrisy

27/ And all of this while Salvini was sitting at his side. After one of particularly harsh remarks Salvini interrupted Conte with a remark «No, my friend, you cannot say that». Conte put his hand on his shoulder and responded: «You'll have your time to speak».

During one of his most remarkable passages, Conte lashed out at Salvini for his display of religious symbols during political rally. Salvini reacted by ominously kissing a rosary held in his hand

At the moment of Salvini's response, the atmosphere in the Senate was tense. Salvini moved from the government bench to his senator chair then rose up and...offered peace. He mildly replied to Conte’s vicious attacks and then offered a new bargain to keep the alliance going

30/ Frantic messages were exchanged between the sides during the three-hour debate. In its final bid for a reconciliation, the League withdrew its motion of no confidence, thus removing the very source of the crisis

31/ This last desperate move gave to the once bland law professor Conte an occasion for the speech of his life. He took the floor at 8 pm after having listened patiently to over 4 hours of debate (Salvini, took a long break and went for a car ride while others were speaking)

32/ «I understand that the League is not brave enough to pull through the motion» Conte said at the end of a short speech «Than I will take the responsibility on myself. Thank you, I am going to see the president of the Republic». Less than an hour later he formally resigned

33/ In the next days, we will see how the crisis unfolds. Salvini could still become the winner of the entire situation. Talks are ongoing

34/ If the alliance between M5S and PD does not work, an early election is still possible, and Salvini with his center-right and right-wing allies could still win resounding victory and hope to restore the position of the populist center-right, as at the time of Berlusconi.

35/ But these two weeks have shown Salvini’s proneness to mistakes. And they also have demonstrated a (maybe momentary) grand exit of Prime Minister Conte, whose great and (almost) completely honest speech had lent him a spot in the history of Italian Parliament

If you want to follow the italian crisis we are covering it at @ilpost in an italian language plain enough that is easily translated by Google :) Here's our last article ilpost.it/2019/08/23/pd-… by @lmisculin

And of cours many thanks to my wonderful girlfriend @palinbalysh for her priceless help in editing all that stuff :)