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Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
@dlacalle_IA
Aug 23, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
President Trump orders US manufacturers to move from China. What may have happened? Open thread: cnbc.com/2019/08/23/us-…
1) US concerns that initiatives to advance on intellectual property rights may have never started.

The US claims losses of $600 billion from intelectual property theft in China.

usitc.gov/publications/3…
2) Ongoing stealth devaluation and tighter internal capital controls
3) A possible imminent intervention in Hong Kong.
4) Despite renewed talks, more tariffs
5) Rising outflows from China and into US

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More from @dlacalle_IA

Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
Dec 10, 2021
Spain industrial production down 0.9% yoy in October.

"Robust recovery" Image
Spain added value by sector.

"Robust recovery" according to the government. Image
Spain retail sales.

"Robust recovery" according to the government. Image
Read 6 tweets
Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
Aug 22, 2021
The same people that defend no-growth demand endless public expenditure growth.

Predictions are estimates, not proven facts. Just as economist predictions tend to fail the longer the predicted date, same happens with scientists. Ignoring technology, efficiency and productivity.
Climate alarmism is counterproductive. Generates a backlash against environmental investment and destroys the credibility of otherwise valuable and interesting works.
Most governments do not benefit from technology innovation, energy efficiency, and substitution. Why? Because those are disinflationary factors and they benefit from inflation while creative destruction hurts so-called strategic industries, which they aim to preserve at all cost
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
Aug 13, 2021
This year marks the 50th anniversary since Nixon suspended the convertibility of the USD into Gold.

This began the era of global fiat money debt-fueled economy.

Since then, crises are more frequent but also shorter and always "solved" by adding more debt and printing.
Since the end of the gold standard, massive debt build and risk-taking have made financial crises more frequent albeit shorter.
The balance sheet of central banks has soared to unimaginable levels, disguising risk but not eliminating it.
Read 8 tweets
Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
Dec 10, 2020
The ECB dangerous bubble in five charts. Thread:

1) Excess Liquidity soars to €3.4 trillion

A problem of solvency is not solved with more liquidity
The most aggressive monetary policy with one of the poorest results:

2) The ECB balance sheet is almost twice the Fed's vs GDP
Massive monetary intervention for diminishing returns:

3) The ECB balance sheet vs Economic Activity. Eurozone Manufacturing and Service Sectors PMI and Eurozone consumer confidence
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
Jul 28, 2020
The USD is not at risk of losing reserve status.

1) No contender. Use of other currencies is much weaker.
2) The US Dollar is UP vs most emerging currencies.
3) There is no Gold-backed currency out there

Gold is money. Fiat money is credit.

Thread:

1) No contender: Global use of the USD is highest and rising since 2008. Euro has a redenomination risk. Feel free to substitute the USD.
2) The US Dollar is up vs most emerging market currencies.

Other central banks are destroying purchasing power much faster and worse than the Fed.
Read 10 tweets
Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
Mar 19, 2020
The @ecb PEPP program is very different from the previous repurchase programs. It allows the ECB all flexibility and in essence it’s a guarantee for the massive deficits that member states will have (1)
In summary, the @ecb is going to sell euros massively at the same time as the Eurozone trade surplus, that keeps the euro stable, collapses (2)
Risking a massive euro devaluation with economic recession that could lead to years of stagnation, the @ecb bet on a V-shaped recovery is very clear. The eurozone non-euro area export growth has been disappointing and losing market share since the launch of QE. (3)
Read 5 tweets

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