Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
PhD #Economist #Author. Chief Economist, Tressis. #Professor @IEbusiness #Advisor @frdelpino. YouTube: https://t.co/sjWtBdfIT7
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Dec 10, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
Spain industrial production down 0.9% yoy in October.

"Robust recovery" Image Spain added value by sector.

"Robust recovery" according to the government. Image
Aug 22, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
The same people that defend no-growth demand endless public expenditure growth.

Predictions are estimates, not proven facts. Just as economist predictions tend to fail the longer the predicted date, same happens with scientists. Ignoring technology, efficiency and productivity. Climate alarmism is counterproductive. Generates a backlash against environmental investment and destroys the credibility of otherwise valuable and interesting works.
Aug 13, 2021 8 tweets 2 min read
This year marks the 50th anniversary since Nixon suspended the convertibility of the USD into Gold.

This began the era of global fiat money debt-fueled economy.

Since then, crises are more frequent but also shorter and always "solved" by adding more debt and printing. Since the end of the gold standard, massive debt build and risk-taking have made financial crises more frequent albeit shorter.
Dec 10, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
The ECB dangerous bubble in five charts. Thread:

1) Excess Liquidity soars to €3.4 trillion

A problem of solvency is not solved with more liquidity The most aggressive monetary policy with one of the poorest results:

2) The ECB balance sheet is almost twice the Fed's vs GDP
Jul 28, 2020 10 tweets 5 min read
The USD is not at risk of losing reserve status.

1) No contender. Use of other currencies is much weaker.
2) The US Dollar is UP vs most emerging currencies.
3) There is no Gold-backed currency out there

Gold is money. Fiat money is credit.


1) No contender: Global use of the USD is highest and rising since 2008. Euro has a redenomination risk. Feel free to substitute the USD.
Mar 19, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
The @ecb PEPP program is very different from the previous repurchase programs. It allows the ECB all flexibility and in essence it’s a guarantee for the massive deficits that member states will have (1) In summary, the @ecb is going to sell euros massively at the same time as the Eurozone trade surplus, that keeps the euro stable, collapses (2)
Sep 27, 2019 10 tweets 5 min read
Economic freedom is the only guarantee of environmental protection. #ClimateStrikes

(Yale & Columbia Environment Protection Index, Frasier Institute Economic Freedom Index)

Open Thread: Interventionism and socialism have never protected the environment. They always subsidize the most polluting sectors and raise taxes on citizens with the excuse of the weather.


Sep 20, 2019 7 tweets 3 min read
German consumers have not seen any benefit from lower wholesale power prices as renewable surcharges and higher taxes have offset all the benefits of higher competition. The massive subsidies of the Energiewende green plan have not improved CO2 emissions (Germany will likely miss its own 2020 target) and cost up to €500 billion so far.

Sep 15, 2019 9 tweets 6 min read
The drone attack on Saudi Arabia has an important impact on the country's oil infrastructure, but we should not exaggerate its impact on world supply

Open thread #OOTT #SaudiArabia #DroneAttacks 1) Saudi Arabia is the OPEC country with the largest spare capacity. Although the drone attack impacts 5% of global supply, it also comes at a time when supply glut was evident, global inventories are large and substitution is relatively easy.
Sep 12, 2019 11 tweets 9 min read
The ECB is creating a dangerous bubble and should not cut rates.


Open thread @threadreaderapp :
@threadreaderapp 1) Eurozone states are already financing themselves at negative rates. There is no need for lower rates and this disguises real risk.

This has saved governments more than 1 trillion euro in interest expenses (handelsblatt.com/today/finance/…)
Aug 23, 2019 6 tweets 2 min read
President Trump orders US manufacturers to move from China. What may have happened? Open thread: cnbc.com/2019/08/23/us-… 1) US concerns that initiatives to advance on intellectual property rights may have never started.

The US claims losses of $600 billion from intelectual property theft in China.

May 9, 2019 7 tweets 3 min read
Trade War? No, negotiation.

Open thread:

1) China has been dragging its feet on a trade deal with no discernible development. Tightening of capital controls signalled unwillingness to open the economy. 2) China depends on the US trade more than the US on China. China's trade surplus is mostly all with the US while it enters a trade deficit with most other partners.