President Trump orders US manufacturers to move from China. What may have happened? Open thread:…
1) US concerns that initiatives to advance on intellectual property rights may have never started.

The US claims losses of $600 billion from intelectual property theft in China.…
2) Ongoing stealth devaluation and tighter internal capital controls
3) A possible imminent intervention in Hong Kong.
4) Despite renewed talks, more tariffs
5) Rising outflows from China and into US

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More from @dlacalle_IA

10 Dec 20
The ECB dangerous bubble in five charts. Thread:

1) Excess Liquidity soars to €3.4 trillion

A problem of solvency is not solved with more liquidity
The most aggressive monetary policy with one of the poorest results:

2) The ECB balance sheet is almost twice the Fed's vs GDP
Massive monetary intervention for diminishing returns:

3) The ECB balance sheet vs Economic Activity. Eurozone Manufacturing and Service Sectors PMI and Eurozone consumer confidence
Read 5 tweets
28 Jul 20
The USD is not at risk of losing reserve status.

1) No contender. Use of other currencies is much weaker.
2) The US Dollar is UP vs most emerging currencies.
3) There is no Gold-backed currency out there

Gold is money. Fiat money is credit.


1) No contender: Global use of the USD is highest and rising since 2008. Euro has a redenomination risk. Feel free to substitute the USD.
2) The US Dollar is up vs most emerging market currencies.

Other central banks are destroying purchasing power much faster and worse than the Fed.
Read 10 tweets
19 Mar 20
The @ecb PEPP program is very different from the previous repurchase programs. It allows the ECB all flexibility and in essence it’s a guarantee for the massive deficits that member states will have (1)
In summary, the @ecb is going to sell euros massively at the same time as the Eurozone trade surplus, that keeps the euro stable, collapses (2)
Risking a massive euro devaluation with economic recession that could lead to years of stagnation, the @ecb bet on a V-shaped recovery is very clear. The eurozone non-euro area export growth has been disappointing and losing market share since the launch of QE. (3)
Read 5 tweets
27 Sep 19
Economic freedom is the only guarantee of environmental protection. #ClimateStrikes

(Yale & Columbia Environment Protection Index, Frasier Institute Economic Freedom Index)

Open Thread:
Interventionism and socialism have never protected the environment. They always subsidize the most polluting sectors and raise taxes on citizens with the excuse of the weather.


The most polluting industries are state or semi-state owned or managing state resources in countries where economic openness and freedom is minimal. #ClimateStrikes

(Climate accountability report)
Read 10 tweets
20 Sep 19
German consumers have not seen any benefit from lower wholesale power prices as renewable surcharges and higher taxes have offset all the benefits of higher competition.
The massive subsidies of the Energiewende green plan have not improved CO2 emissions (Germany will likely miss its own 2020 target) and cost up to €500 billion so far.…
A new "green energy plan" of €100 billion in the eurozone runs the risk of making the same mistakes of the Energiewende. Enormous cost for little results.…
Read 7 tweets
15 Sep 19
The drone attack on Saudi Arabia has an important impact on the country's oil infrastructure, but we should not exaggerate its impact on world supply

Open thread #OOTT #SaudiArabia #DroneAttacks
1) Saudi Arabia is the OPEC country with the largest spare capacity. Although the drone attack impacts 5% of global supply, it also comes at a time when supply glut was evident, global inventories are large and substitution is relatively easy.
2) The IEA estimates the ‘call on OPEC’ at 28.3 mbd in 1H20. This is a downward revision of 0.2 mb/d compared to its previous forest and a substantial 1.4 mb/d below OPEC’s August output.
Read 9 tweets

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