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David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
@DavidHenigUK
Aug 24, 2019 β€’ 10 tweets β€’ 4 min read β€’ Read on X
Basic rule of trade policy - if you want a deal with the US or EU you have to accept their terms. The privilege is tariff free access to their market. The cost is whatever they want it to be and you will pay.

No food, no NHS, no serious US trade deal.
The question 'what will it cost us?' is never asked in the UK in a Brexit or trade context. Always us, us, us, me, me, me. And while it isn't, no deal with EU or US. The glory of isolation because nobody else understands how important we are.
Still it's good to read that Number 10 has spotted the risk and is increasingly worried a US trade deal could be exploited by Labour. I only wrote this article 10 months ago...

prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
For total lack of self awareness see also... the rest of the world sees Brexit as a retreat from the world, and a few warm words otherwise will not convince them otherwise

theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
Another way to think of trade negotiations with major powers who have protected markets when yours are quite open...

This Trump and UK thread by an MP I assume to generally be in favour of trade makes my own look terribly moderate...

I'll be honest, I didn't quite expect so much reaction to stating the fact that both the EU and US have tough demands in a trade agreement, and a country will have to sign up to many for a deal. The Brexit debate seems so insular so much of the time.
You can find the US negotiating mandate for a UK deal here - ustr.gov/sites/default/…. The EU doesn't publish quite in this form, but the TTIP mandate provides an indication of their asks - data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/S…. As for the UK objectives for either relationship...
If you are going to sign up to either or both US / EU trade deal you need to be very sure of your exact offensive and defensive interests. This is a process that takes some time, including plenty of at least semi-public debate. The process has barely started.
"All this negativity" as one reply went. Sure, if you want to live in the dream world where the UK gets everything we want and give nothing, it's negative. In the world in which our companies compete and trade the dreams are useless, and we need to up our game. /end

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Apr 18
Increasingly thinking that Labour is going to need some clever way to handle the EU issue otherwise there is going to be a lot of difficulty and frustration spilling into government. And judging by my inbox, affecting negotiations. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Problem with these "we can't talk about it but we always talk about it" issues is that they don't go away, and particularly when they involve international talks with a player like the EU, you simply add levels of complexity potentially making it unmanageable.
Worse with UK-EU is the sheer number of players and subjects involved, and that both sides have unfinished emotional business. More on the EU side to come, but the fact every UK story generates reaction tells you this isn't all forgotten...
Read 20 tweets
David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jan 31
I see we're predicted to be back in the realms today of hurrying through Parliament another Brexit change without debate just to show we haven't really learnt anything, but from the tail end of yesterday's thread here's some of what I'm expecting on Northern Ireland, plus...
There are briefings that either / both - new EU law will no longer automatically be applied in Northern Ireland (it never was) / the UK will agree not to diverge from relevant EU law to avoid UK divergence (wouldn't necessarily remove SPS checks but will keep UK alignment).
As with the Windsor Framework and before, expect an enormous amount of spin that will mostly be reported without challenge, and a handful of us unfortunate enough to read it all (@Usherwood and @JP_Biz are usually good bets in that department).
Read 21 tweets
David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jan 30
And the morning news is a deal over Northern Ireland and Brexit. But... this statement isn't true under the Windsor Framework. Even if the UK government decide to align food and drink regulations with the EU. So is this really all settled? theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
Image
Now under the Windsor Framework entry checks to Northern Ireland were reduced. But these are not eliminated by UK alignment. Possibly the DUP has finally decided to agree that these are not so different to those of pre-2016. But equally, be wary of false promises unravelling.
Obviously good news for Northern Ireland if Stormont returns. As long as that can be sustained. That's going to quite possibly mean a lot more days like yesterday, because the issues around Brexit aren't going away given Northern Ireland is the entry point to the single market.
Read 22 tweets
David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jan 25
UK trade news! Canada have proved persistently tough negotiating partners for the UK, and this comes as little surprise. The existing replica of the EU agreement is presumed to hold for now, but must also raise a question on CPTPP ratification.
Worth noting that UK refusal to change food standards has been an issue for Canada, while UK access to dairy is an inevitable issue the other way. But still a blow to the government's trade story.
At this stage we have no update on Canada's approach to making tea...
Read 7 tweets
David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jan 19
Good piece on Northern Ireland. Clearly the DUP take some blame for refusing to return to Stormont. But their position is pretty predictable, and the UK government has consistently failed in efforts to change that, digging the hole deeper as they go. politico.eu/article/no-gov…
Doesn't seem like the government ever had a Plan B for the entirely predictable (and widely predicted) situation in which the DUP rejected the Windsor Framework. They were so confident that they had negotiated brilliantly (heard someone involved bragging exactly this).
Can't help thinking I've heard this before (and yesterday's version was there wouldn't be any agreement for a long time), but let's see if the DUP are prepared to suddenly fold on their stated reasons for not being in Stormont...
Read 5 tweets
David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jan 19
To be clear because I've read this twice already today, a UK-EU SPS agreement would almost certainly NOT remove all barriers to trade in food and drink products.

It could ease some of them. But that difference between the single market and lesser arrangements will remain.
Thing is, loose talk in the UK on EU deals has consequences, because when the Commission read that the UK is going to remove all food and drink barriers while staying out of the single market they think "unacceptable cherry picking / they haven't learnt anything".
There's a realistic UK-EU SPS deal to be had based on substantive but not dynamic regulatory alignment in which trade barriers are lowered but not removed but even this will be a tough negotiation requiring a lot of mutual understanding and could easily fail.
Read 5 tweets

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