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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Aug 24, 2019 • 24 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Thread: In years covering Israel's airstrikes in Syria, most of which were "alleged" until Israel began admitting them in August 2017, this is the first time I remember Israel's IDF releasing details so quickly.
The IDF says: "IDF Thwarts Iranian Quds Force and Shiite Militias' Attack Targeting Israel. IDF fighter jets recently targeted a number of terror targets in Aqraba, Syria, southeast of Damascus."
"The strike targeted Iranian Quds Force operatives and Shiite militias which were preparing to advance attack plans targeting sites in Israel from within Syria over the last number of days.
The thwarted attack included plans to launch a number of armed drones." -IDF
"...intended to be used to strike Israeli sites. The IDF is prepared to continue defending the State of Israel against any attempts to harm it and holds Iran and the Syrian regime directly responsible for the thwarted attack." -IDF
Syrian state media claims it shot down all the incoming missiles. The first reports were around 11:27 (23:27) PM local time. IDF claimed the incident around midnight.
Israel's PM Netanyahu spoke to Russian President on August 23 about situation in Syria; and Israel has been alleged to have carried out recent airstrikes in Iraq against Iranian-backed groups .

These "Shiite militias" were mentioned in IDF statement

mideastcenter.org/post/tracking-…
Context is also the discussion about Iran's "land bridge"

mideastcenter.org/post/tracking-…
Important to remember the last major strikes southeast of Damascus, early June and

ynetnews.com/articles/0,734…

And late July
thedefensepost.com/2019/08/01/isr…
It's important to note that this strike was against drones and "Shiite militias"; remember an Iranian drone penetrated Israel airspace in February 2018 jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…

Iran is improving drone tech: thehill.com/opinion/intern…
Iraqi Sh'ite militia leaders have threatened Israel before, as early as December 2017; there was an airstrike on Kata'ib Hezbollah in June 2018 in Syria, but in recent days the issue of the militias has grown
jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…

See also
jpost.com/Middle-East/Ar…
The last piece of wider context is the history of Iran's "land bridge"; jpost.com/Middle-East/Th…
Here is my analysis of the August 24 incident jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…
Adding to this the comparison/background of the January 21 incident “The IDF is currently striking Iranian Quds targets in Syrian territory. The IDF warns the Syrian Armed Forces against attempting to harm Israeli territory or forces” from 1:29am.
A look at three statements from Israel regarding the attack last night in Syria, the first is the IDF press release, then the IDF tweet and then Netanyahu's statement. I highlighted some of the slight differences that I thought interesting
Fars News has a report on the "unprecedented Zionist" acknowledgement of the Syria attack farsnews.com/news/139806030…
Israel Radio includes comments from Avi Dichter re: Syria/Iran tensions and also former defmin Lieberman, Lieberman criticizes government’s speed of claiming Syria airstrikes and also mentions Iraq;
I compiled a list of most Israeli IDF official statements over the past year, handy reference and a look back at the context of the August 24 airstrikes, with links and tweets

sethfrantzman.com/2019/08/25/a-y…
IRGC says its forces not hit
ynetnews.com/articles/0,734…
Now reports of another drone strike near Iraq-Syria border?
Israel IDF releases video of the Aug 22 incident of alleged IRGC with drone in Arneh near Golan #Breakingnews
The new reports of an attack on KH remind one of the June 2018 incident sethfrantzman.com/2018/06/20/the…
These reports emerge as Nasrallah speech vows that no drones will enter Lebanon; oddly it seems two drones crashed early Aug 25 morning were Iranian,
El-Etejah reporting "strikes on equipment stores belonging to the 45th Brigade in Al-Qaim district"
aletejahtv.com/archives/307515
Al-Manar reports casualties at the Qaim airstrike,

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 14
I doubt Doha will ever give up its asset Hamas, this has been a huge card that Doha was dealt in 2012 and is immensely profitable and holding onto the card is also a game winner for them, they can use it for leverage over the U.S., Israel, Hamas, Iran. They hold the lever that can heat up or turn down the war in Gaza and wars throughout the region by Iran’s proxies and they control the fate of 101 hostages. It’s massive for them.
Doha happened upon this strategy almost twenty years ago. While other countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE were turning against extremism, they realized that by openly hosting extremists they would get more leverage with the U.S. and the west because they could say “as long as we host them we can stop them attacking you”…so they could openly fund these groups and spread extremism via their media. The U.S. actually critiqued other countries more for terror finance than Doha which openly financed Hamas
By hosting the Taliban and Hamas Doha became the go-to for talks abs “mediation” playing both sides while other gulf states lost out. The U.S. rewarded Doha more and gave it major non-NATO ally status. The stronger Hamas and the Taliban got, the more suffering in Gaza and Kabul the more the west adored Doha. Suffering and hosting extremists became the main way to get backing in the west. Pushing tolerance and coexistence was a one-way ticket to a cold shoulder, oddly
Read 6 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 10
There are only two sides to the mob violence in Amsterdam.
-One side supports having police presence to protect people from mob violence.
-One side supports mob violence and argues that it is justified and excuses it and say "what about" and "they started it."
You're either on the side of mobs taking over cities, or on the side of peace and law and order.

There's no third side here. The side that backs the attacks on the Israeli fans has only one response, which is to claim the Israelis "started it." They never argue police should arrest the Israelis
You know how you know the side that backs the mob violence is lying about Israelis "starting it." They never say the police should investigate and detain Israeli "hooligans." Because they know the only hooligans are the mobs.
Read 15 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 9
The fact that Hamas was hosted by Doha encouraged Hamas to kidnap people and hold them hostage because it knew it could than do talks in Doha. It actually increased suffering in this respect. Because it incentivized Hamas to take hostages and target civilian areas to get hostages
Think of a different scenarior where Hamas was only hosted by Iran, a country that doesn't negotiate with Israel and can't "mediate." Hamas would have no incentive to take hundreds of hostages. Hamas would still want to attack, but it would be able to use a western ally as mediator
Hamas also knew that being hosted by Qatar meant that it could use this connection to get a better deal. Doha benefited by dragging out the deal so Doha would be necessary and needed; and Hamas also benefited. This incentivized Hamas to hold more hostages for longer.
Read 7 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 9
It increasingly looks like Doha may be trying to "play" this issue to get maximum benefit for itself. It poses as a mediator but it's real goal is now to appear to pause mediation in order to pressure Israel, it seems.
The reports about Hamas leaders being asked to leave Qatar or their office being closed may now be twisted by Doha such that it becomes about how, if the Hamas office is closed, then who will mediate.
Basically what Doha may be doing is trying to get out ahead of this issue by making it seem like it is pausing mediation, and that if Hamas leaves then definitely Doha can't mediate. It could but it will choose not to. This would put Israel in the awkward position of being pressured to ask Doha not to expel Hamas.
Read 9 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 9
I've noticed a trend in discussions about the attack on Israelis, Jews and others in Amsterdam after a game. Those who support the attacks or excuse them always claim it was Israelis who "provoked" it via chants or some other activity.
What you'll notice is that those who excuse the attacks never argue that police should have made sure to protect people. The people who say "both sides" did something also never say police and authorities should have prevented the violence.
You'll notice many posts saying "Israelis tore down Palestinian flags" or "Israelis attacked taxi drivers" or "Israelis booed a memorial for victims of Spanish floods." But these people NEVER say that police should have intervened to stop these "Israelis" from doing these things.
Read 9 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 8
The question these comments raise go to the heart of what the goals are of the current war. When the war began the Hamas atrocities were compared to ISIS and the Israeli public was told there won’t be Hamas in Gaza.
A year later with Hamas continuing to control a large part of Gaza, even though it has diminished “capabilities”, it appears that at the highest levels there was a dispute not about removing Hamas but more about even whether to keep troops in Rafah and Netzarim corridors.
The dispute does not seem to have been about replacing Hamas. This doesn’t even seem to be a discussion. Is it now taken for granted that Hamas will control Gaza into the future? When we hear that Hamas is no longer a “threat” that seems to be the end result
Read 14 tweets

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