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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Aug 24, 2019 • 24 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Thread: In years covering Israel's airstrikes in Syria, most of which were "alleged" until Israel began admitting them in August 2017, this is the first time I remember Israel's IDF releasing details so quickly.
The IDF says: "IDF Thwarts Iranian Quds Force and Shiite Militias' Attack Targeting Israel. IDF fighter jets recently targeted a number of terror targets in Aqraba, Syria, southeast of Damascus."
"The strike targeted Iranian Quds Force operatives and Shiite militias which were preparing to advance attack plans targeting sites in Israel from within Syria over the last number of days.
The thwarted attack included plans to launch a number of armed drones." -IDF
"...intended to be used to strike Israeli sites. The IDF is prepared to continue defending the State of Israel against any attempts to harm it and holds Iran and the Syrian regime directly responsible for the thwarted attack." -IDF
Syrian state media claims it shot down all the incoming missiles. The first reports were around 11:27 (23:27) PM local time. IDF claimed the incident around midnight.
Israel's PM Netanyahu spoke to Russian President on August 23 about situation in Syria; and Israel has been alleged to have carried out recent airstrikes in Iraq against Iranian-backed groups .

These "Shiite militias" were mentioned in IDF statement

mideastcenter.org/post/tracking-…
Context is also the discussion about Iran's "land bridge"

mideastcenter.org/post/tracking-…
Important to remember the last major strikes southeast of Damascus, early June and

ynetnews.com/articles/0,734…

And late July
thedefensepost.com/2019/08/01/isr…
It's important to note that this strike was against drones and "Shiite militias"; remember an Iranian drone penetrated Israel airspace in February 2018 jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…

Iran is improving drone tech: thehill.com/opinion/intern…
Iraqi Sh'ite militia leaders have threatened Israel before, as early as December 2017; there was an airstrike on Kata'ib Hezbollah in June 2018 in Syria, but in recent days the issue of the militias has grown
jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…

See also
jpost.com/Middle-East/Ar…
The last piece of wider context is the history of Iran's "land bridge"; jpost.com/Middle-East/Th…
Here is my analysis of the August 24 incident jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…
Adding to this the comparison/background of the January 21 incident “The IDF is currently striking Iranian Quds targets in Syrian territory. The IDF warns the Syrian Armed Forces against attempting to harm Israeli territory or forces” from 1:29am.
A look at three statements from Israel regarding the attack last night in Syria, the first is the IDF press release, then the IDF tweet and then Netanyahu's statement. I highlighted some of the slight differences that I thought interesting
Fars News has a report on the "unprecedented Zionist" acknowledgement of the Syria attack farsnews.com/news/139806030…
Israel Radio includes comments from Avi Dichter re: Syria/Iran tensions and also former defmin Lieberman, Lieberman criticizes government’s speed of claiming Syria airstrikes and also mentions Iraq;
I compiled a list of most Israeli IDF official statements over the past year, handy reference and a look back at the context of the August 24 airstrikes, with links and tweets

sethfrantzman.com/2019/08/25/a-y…
IRGC says its forces not hit
ynetnews.com/articles/0,734…
Now reports of another drone strike near Iraq-Syria border?
Israel IDF releases video of the Aug 22 incident of alleged IRGC with drone in Arneh near Golan #Breakingnews
The new reports of an attack on KH remind one of the June 2018 incident sethfrantzman.com/2018/06/20/the…
These reports emerge as Nasrallah speech vows that no drones will enter Lebanon; oddly it seems two drones crashed early Aug 25 morning were Iranian,
El-Etejah reporting "strikes on equipment stores belonging to the 45th Brigade in Al-Qaim district"
aletejahtv.com/archives/307515
Al-Manar reports casualties at the Qaim airstrike,

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Sep 10
What is the end game of Israel's current multi-front war? This is worth considering in the wake of the strike on Hamas in Doha on September 9 and a new round of airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen. In addition Israel continues to operate in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. This is unprecedented in Israel's history to be fighting in so many places for so long.
There is no doubt that when it comes to tactical precision strikes and intelligence gathering that Israel has excellent capabilities. After the massive failure of October 7 Israel has clawed back this perception of being able to operate on multiple fronts at a high tempo.
However, the continues to be an elephant in the room in terms of end game and strategy. The war with Hezbollah was a trickle in 2023-2024 until Israel escalated in Sept-Nov and got a ceasefire. Since then Israel has struck Hezbollah but Hezbollah does not strike Israel. Will that be a "norm" for years?
Read 17 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Sep 9
It always surprised me that Doha didn't re-think its Hamas hosting strategy on October 7. It should have seen that Hamas was a destructive sunk cost. Doha had sent large sums to Gaza and Hamas was risking everything through its attack and massacre.
Doha could have used that as an opportunity to pivot, to get Hamas leaders in Doha to distance themselves from the disaster that Sinwar had unleashed. Doha could have leveraged its influence and probably got something out of this. It could have leaked that Hamas leaders in Doha were shocked and that they wanted the movement to go in a different direction. Hamas in Gaza could have been isolated and removed and Doha could have swept in with the "good cop" Hamas leaders from Doha and tried to get a coalition government with Abbas, something Hamas could try to control behind the scenes.
There was an opportunity on October 8 to re-think decades of failed Gaza strategy. For instance, after Oct. 7 Hamas released two American women, and also two elderly women. Clearly someone was advising Hamas abroad, likely via Doha, that holding Americans, women, the elderly, was not a good look.
Read 9 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Aug 30
The pro-Houthi griftersphere is fascinating. It’s solely made up of people who had never heard of the Houthis before October 7, 2023. They were then operationalized, or self-operationalized to suddenly back a group they knew nothing about in a country they never heard about and couldn’t locate on a map; solely because the group claimed to be fighting Israel in the name of Gaza. They adopted the cause of the Houthis, who they often confusingly claim is the government of Yemen (the Houthis are not the government); and now they are all aping eachother like leap frog to one-up how much they back “Yemen” and its “Prime Minister” after Israel targeted the Iran-backed Houthi government.

There isn’t a lone voice among these folk who cared about the Yemen civil war before 2023. It’s just people that adopted this cause and then accept any Houthi slop they are fed.

You could make up a group and claim it is fighting Israel “for Gaza” and these grifters would back it. “The Abjababians are fighting Israel to stop the Gaza war” and the next day you’d have 100 “influencers” very passionate about the Abjababians and their leader General Landocjabr…any random thing you could completely make up…put some AI slop on it and they’d consume it
I don’t know if griftersphere is a word, but I’m happy to coin it and will use it more often. It is the most appropriate word for the phenomenon of these folk.
The pro-Houthi griftersphere should be mapped and studied. It’s so obviously not authentic and so ridiculous.
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Aug 24
I found this CNN article about Gaza city interesting because of the elephant in the room. It tells the tale of a city that was once thriving and is now a chaos of war and tragedy.

But what seems to be missing in the larger discussion is why Hamas purposely risked all this to commit the genocidal Oct. 7 attack; Hamas would have known that murdering 1,000 people and taking 250 hostage would result in a long war of destruction. They purposely set out to destroy Gaza city.Image
"you could still get a matcha latte on the way to a yoga studio, or relax in a park."

So shouldn't someone hold Hamas to account for having destroyed all this? Image
The report says "institutions set up by the militants, with help from regional governments like Qatar and a robust United Nations aid system, gave some structure to the strip’s exhausted population."

So why haven't those organizations and countries that funded Hamas-run Gaza condemned Hamas for unleashing this terrible war.
Read 7 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 22
I'm fascinated and saddened every time I see a news story about Hamas in Gaza, such as the recent statements about EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas speaking with her Israelis counterpart and discussing Hamas in Gaza. It always shocks me that after 655 days of war that Hamas continues to control part of Gaza and negotiate to return to control most of it. The existence of Hamas in Gaza shouldn't even be a discussion today. It shouldn't be there. But it is. It is unclear if Hamas will be removed from Gaza. If it is to be removed there doesn't appear to be a clear roadmap for doing so. This lack of a process is part of the wider series of missteps and challenges that plagued the war for 21 months.
It's fascinating that despite murdering more than 1,000 people on October 7 and kidnapping 250; that decisions were made in the early months of the war that would result in keeping Hamas in power. Instead of being laser focused on removing Hamas, so Israelis wouldn't be kidnapped again, so they wouldn't be massacred again; the war was treated as another round in Gaza, another 2006, 2009, 2014. In fact, the plans for the offensive in Gaza were almost identical to past raids. The concept: Go into part of Gaza city or Khan Younis, uproot some tunnels; and then leave. Go into the Philadelphi corridor, clear it out and then negotiate over leaving it.
One of the early examples of a decision that was obviously made to result in Hamas staying in power, was the decision to move civilians in Gaza to be under Hamas rule. The IDF or other officials made decisions early on that under no circumstances would Israel deal with the civilians, and under no circumstances would an alternate authority be created to administer their lives in a non-Hamas zone. As such the result was to move 2 million people to remain under Hamas rule.
Read 13 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 6
There is a lot of talk today about sheikhs in Hebron who want to for an "emirate" of Hebron. This is being greeted by some as a positive initiative. Let's take a look at the claims and also what the results could be. Image
First, the context. Israel is engaged in a 637 day war in Gaza against Hamas. Hamas still controls around 40 percent of Gaza. In Gaza, Israel has backed an initiative to have armed militias involved in some activities in the rest of Gaza. There is one named commander, Abu Shabab (not his real name obviously) and there are rumored to be others.

Some see this as a wise decision to have multiple armed gangs and militias run a post-war Gaza. Israel's current government opposes having the PA run Gaza, so the theory is that armed militias fighting eachother and Hamas is a good future.
In the West Bank the PA has been relatively successful at ruling Palestinian cities and towns for thirty years. However, Israel's current government includes parties that oppose the PA. The PA leader Mahmoud Abbas is aging and there is talk of what comes next.
Read 25 tweets

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