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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Aug 24, 2019 • 24 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Thread: In years covering Israel's airstrikes in Syria, most of which were "alleged" until Israel began admitting them in August 2017, this is the first time I remember Israel's IDF releasing details so quickly.
The IDF says: "IDF Thwarts Iranian Quds Force and Shiite Militias' Attack Targeting Israel. IDF fighter jets recently targeted a number of terror targets in Aqraba, Syria, southeast of Damascus."
"The strike targeted Iranian Quds Force operatives and Shiite militias which were preparing to advance attack plans targeting sites in Israel from within Syria over the last number of days.
The thwarted attack included plans to launch a number of armed drones." -IDF
"...intended to be used to strike Israeli sites. The IDF is prepared to continue defending the State of Israel against any attempts to harm it and holds Iran and the Syrian regime directly responsible for the thwarted attack." -IDF
Syrian state media claims it shot down all the incoming missiles. The first reports were around 11:27 (23:27) PM local time. IDF claimed the incident around midnight.
Israel's PM Netanyahu spoke to Russian President on August 23 about situation in Syria; and Israel has been alleged to have carried out recent airstrikes in Iraq against Iranian-backed groups .

These "Shiite militias" were mentioned in IDF statement

mideastcenter.org/post/tracking-…
Context is also the discussion about Iran's "land bridge"

mideastcenter.org/post/tracking-…
Important to remember the last major strikes southeast of Damascus, early June and

ynetnews.com/articles/0,734…

And late July
thedefensepost.com/2019/08/01/isr…
It's important to note that this strike was against drones and "Shiite militias"; remember an Iranian drone penetrated Israel airspace in February 2018 jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…

Iran is improving drone tech: thehill.com/opinion/intern…
Iraqi Sh'ite militia leaders have threatened Israel before, as early as December 2017; there was an airstrike on Kata'ib Hezbollah in June 2018 in Syria, but in recent days the issue of the militias has grown
jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…

See also
jpost.com/Middle-East/Ar…
The last piece of wider context is the history of Iran's "land bridge"; jpost.com/Middle-East/Th…
Here is my analysis of the August 24 incident jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…
Adding to this the comparison/background of the January 21 incident “The IDF is currently striking Iranian Quds targets in Syrian territory. The IDF warns the Syrian Armed Forces against attempting to harm Israeli territory or forces” from 1:29am.
A look at three statements from Israel regarding the attack last night in Syria, the first is the IDF press release, then the IDF tweet and then Netanyahu's statement. I highlighted some of the slight differences that I thought interesting
Fars News has a report on the "unprecedented Zionist" acknowledgement of the Syria attack farsnews.com/news/139806030…
Israel Radio includes comments from Avi Dichter re: Syria/Iran tensions and also former defmin Lieberman, Lieberman criticizes government’s speed of claiming Syria airstrikes and also mentions Iraq;
I compiled a list of most Israeli IDF official statements over the past year, handy reference and a look back at the context of the August 24 airstrikes, with links and tweets

sethfrantzman.com/2019/08/25/a-y…
IRGC says its forces not hit
ynetnews.com/articles/0,734…
Now reports of another drone strike near Iraq-Syria border?
Israel IDF releases video of the Aug 22 incident of alleged IRGC with drone in Arneh near Golan #Breakingnews
The new reports of an attack on KH remind one of the June 2018 incident sethfrantzman.com/2018/06/20/the…
These reports emerge as Nasrallah speech vows that no drones will enter Lebanon; oddly it seems two drones crashed early Aug 25 morning were Iranian,
El-Etejah reporting "strikes on equipment stores belonging to the 45th Brigade in Al-Qaim district"
aletejahtv.com/archives/307515
Al-Manar reports casualties at the Qaim airstrike,

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Apr 16
There should be a kind of "alternate history" article(s) on how Iran and its proxies were empowered to grow exponentially in the region and it should include Israel's policies, which were ostensibly against Iran and the proxies...but explain how this ended up with Iran in an unprecedented and strong position on Israel's borders.
What I mean is the aphorism, when everyone is thinking the same thing, someone isn't thinking. It requires a critical reading of the history to explain the policies that enabled Hamas to become exponentially more powerful than it was 20 years ago.
And it requires some explanation why Israel's conception of strategy decided that having an increasingly powerful Hezbollah on the northern border, especially after the challenges of 2006...became "this is fine." Even as it became clear that Hezbollah was not deterred, but rather Israel was becoming deterred.
Read 19 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Apr 15
I just realized that one outcome of Iran launching such a massive unprecedented attack using drones and missiles is that it wanted to create a new bar for such attacks in the future so it can attack Israel with fewer projectiles directly and then have it portrayed as normal and acceptable
You see all the people who already went to bat for this narrative claiming this was just a symbolic attack not meant to succeed…so they now define 350 missiles as acceptable. And so if Iran launches 20 missiles they will have redefined that as fine
The whole narrative when it comes to Israel is always to define things that are unacceptable in any other context, such as attacks on civilians, as basically normal and acceptable “retaliation” or “resistance” and thus make any Israeli response “escalation”
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Apr 15
The worst takes on the Iranian attack of April 13-14 are those who call it “symbolic”. This was a massive, unprecedented attack of historic proportions. Never before in history were so many drones, ballistic, missiles and cruise missiles (350 in total) used at the same time in an attack, and from several different fronts and directions, including attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and from the direction of Yemen and over Iraq and Jordan, and almost all of it timed to arrive within around ten minutes of eachother…

Those who think it was “symbolic” or designed not to succeed either know nothing about the weapons involved, the complexity of planning this, know nothing about history, know nothing about the complexity of the air defenses involved and billions of investment it took over four decades to meet this attack, or are simply being purposely disingenuous (more likely).
I suspect most of those making the comment aren’t purposely ignorant, they know firing 350 drones and missiles that require different times to arrive and targeting different areas of Israel with precision from four directions is incredibly complex and was not designed to fail…they need to downplay it for some reason. Because by their logic if 350 is symbolic then what would 1,000 missiles be?
If Iran wanted a symbolic attack it would have launched a dozen missiles. Does anyone say the attack on Asad base was “symbolic” and it involved two dozen missiles right?
Read 5 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Apr 15
Israel historically understood that it had to be willing to go it alone.

One of the issues after October 7 is how to restore deterrence. My sense is that Iran and its proxies all feel emboldened and have tried to change the "rules" and the "equation" in the region to make it acceptable for them all to attack Israel whenever they want. Israel's partners are willing to help defend, but their message is for Israel not to respond too much...which creates a situation of endless war and managing the conflict. That is what led to Oct. 7.
Not responding and "managing" conflicts is not a good substitute for strategy. It just kicks the can down the road...and kicking the can leads Iran and its proxies to grow stronger.
There is no evidence that Iran or its proxies have gotten weaker the more the conflicts and various fronts and arenas are "managed."

Hezbollah has acquired PGMs and thousands of drones for instance.
Read 9 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Apr 14
Today the narrative among some is that Iran’s unprecedented massive attack with missiles and drones is just “symbolic” and didn’t harm much so therefore it can be shrugged off.

That was the same mentality about the rocket fire from Gaza two decades ago and also the Hezbollah rocket fire and the Houthi attacks. The always change the goal posts so hundreds or thousands of missiles are no big deal. And then when Hamas massacres 1,000 people and takes 250 hostage then they are surprised.
If you don’t take one missile being fired as a threat then it becomes two and then ten and 100 and 1,000. The fact is that systematically Iran has been allowed to spread drone and missile terror around the Middle East and also sent drones to Russia to terrorize Ukrainians. Did the same people who say it was just “symbolic” say that when missiles and drones rain down on Ukrainian civilians?
The fact is that the decision to ignore Hamas rockets and then Hezbollah rockets and then Houthi attacks and then Iraqi militia attacks and now Iran’s attacks is destroying the region. Air defenses are not a magic wand OR A SUBSTITUTE FOR POLICY AND STRATEGY.
Read 9 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Apr 14
The narratives appearing this morning after the unprecedented Iranian attack on Israel (the largest use of drones at a single time in a long range attack) is that the attack can be kind of dismissed because they were intercepted. This is wrong, and here is why.:

First of all this is one of the catch-22s of having good air defenses, which is that attacks are downplayed and Israel especially is told not to respond because the defenses are successful
I think that’s a misreading of the situation. Iran is emboldened and not deterred every time it feels it can attack, whether it is attacking US forces or hijacking ships or attacking Saudi Arabia or having its militias attack Israel, and the U.S. and other countries, such as attacks on Erbil, or killing Americans in Jordan in January
Iran even attacked Pakistan recently. It feels total impunity, for instance operationalizing the Houthis, backing genocidal Hamas, destabilizing the West Bank with PIJ, pushing Hezbollah to launch thousands of attacks, entrenching in Syria, exporting drones to Russia
Read 6 tweets

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