Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Aug 24, 2019 • 24 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Thread: In years covering Israel's airstrikes in Syria, most of which were "alleged" until Israel began admitting them in August 2017, this is the first time I remember Israel's IDF releasing details so quickly.
The IDF says: "IDF Thwarts Iranian Quds Force and Shiite Militias' Attack Targeting Israel. IDF fighter jets recently targeted a number of terror targets in Aqraba, Syria, southeast of Damascus."
"The strike targeted Iranian Quds Force operatives and Shiite militias which were preparing to advance attack plans targeting sites in Israel from within Syria over the last number of days.
The thwarted attack included plans to launch a number of armed drones." -IDF
"...intended to be used to strike Israeli sites. The IDF is prepared to continue defending the State of Israel against any attempts to harm it and holds Iran and the Syrian regime directly responsible for the thwarted attack." -IDF
Syrian state media claims it shot down all the incoming missiles. The first reports were around 11:27 (23:27) PM local time. IDF claimed the incident around midnight.
Israel's PM Netanyahu spoke to Russian President on August 23 about situation in Syria; and Israel has been alleged to have carried out recent airstrikes in Iraq against Iranian-backed groups .

These "Shiite militias" were mentioned in IDF statement

mideastcenter.org/post/tracking-…
Context is also the discussion about Iran's "land bridge"

mideastcenter.org/post/tracking-…
Important to remember the last major strikes southeast of Damascus, early June and

ynetnews.com/articles/0,734…

And late July
thedefensepost.com/2019/08/01/isr…
It's important to note that this strike was against drones and "Shiite militias"; remember an Iranian drone penetrated Israel airspace in February 2018 jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…

Iran is improving drone tech: thehill.com/opinion/intern…
Iraqi Sh'ite militia leaders have threatened Israel before, as early as December 2017; there was an airstrike on Kata'ib Hezbollah in June 2018 in Syria, but in recent days the issue of the militias has grown
jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…

See also
jpost.com/Middle-East/Ar…
The last piece of wider context is the history of Iran's "land bridge"; jpost.com/Middle-East/Th…
Here is my analysis of the August 24 incident jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…
Adding to this the comparison/background of the January 21 incident “The IDF is currently striking Iranian Quds targets in Syrian territory. The IDF warns the Syrian Armed Forces against attempting to harm Israeli territory or forces” from 1:29am.
A look at three statements from Israel regarding the attack last night in Syria, the first is the IDF press release, then the IDF tweet and then Netanyahu's statement. I highlighted some of the slight differences that I thought interesting
Fars News has a report on the "unprecedented Zionist" acknowledgement of the Syria attack farsnews.com/news/139806030…
Israel Radio includes comments from Avi Dichter re: Syria/Iran tensions and also former defmin Lieberman, Lieberman criticizes government’s speed of claiming Syria airstrikes and also mentions Iraq;
I compiled a list of most Israeli IDF official statements over the past year, handy reference and a look back at the context of the August 24 airstrikes, with links and tweets

sethfrantzman.com/2019/08/25/a-y…
IRGC says its forces not hit
ynetnews.com/articles/0,734…
Now reports of another drone strike near Iraq-Syria border?
Israel IDF releases video of the Aug 22 incident of alleged IRGC with drone in Arneh near Golan #Breakingnews
The new reports of an attack on KH remind one of the June 2018 incident sethfrantzman.com/2018/06/20/the…
These reports emerge as Nasrallah speech vows that no drones will enter Lebanon; oddly it seems two drones crashed early Aug 25 morning were Iranian,
El-Etejah reporting "strikes on equipment stores belonging to the 45th Brigade in Al-Qaim district"
aletejahtv.com/archives/307515
Al-Manar reports casualties at the Qaim airstrike,

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Seth Frantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 23
China hosting Hamas in order to try to bring it as a trojan horse into the Palestinian Authority so Hamas can run the West Bank with the fig leaf of the other factions being used...is the most clear example of how Hamas was rewarded for Oct. 7
Rather than being isolated after the worst massacre of Jews since the Shoah and one of the worst massacres in history, Hamas immediately got MORE backing from Moscow-Tehran-Ankara-Beijing-Doha.
If Hamas had NOT done October 7 it wouldn't have been invited to the unity talks in Beijing. Basically the attack led a bunch of countries to take Hamas more seriously and think of it as a bigger player they want to back to bring it to power.
Read 6 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 19
Thoughts on the drone attack on Tel Aviv and the Houthi claims.

First, this is an escalation. The increased use of drones by all the Iranian-backed groups has increased their threats and range of attacks
Second, the Houthis have been claiming increased range for their drones for months. They have been talking about reaching the Mediterranean and also cooperation with Iranian-backed groups in Iraq

timesofisrael.com/houthis-claim-…
See for instance washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
Read 9 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 17
There appears to be a narrative forming about how Hamas is suddenly weakened and Israel is making headway in Gaza. A number of articles and commentary have been pushing this. However, it’s as important to be skeptical of this as it was on Oct. 6 to be skeptical of theories about Hamas being deterred and weak.
So let’s ask a key question about the narrative that Hamas is suddenly facing defeat. Where is the evidence of this? It still controls 90% of Gaza. Are there areas where it has lost control?
There is another theme that wants to see Israel declare victory and assert that Hamas “capabilities” have been destroyed and it can no longer do another Oct 7. This is the new low bar of “victory.”
Read 8 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 17
This entire war is a study in how policies that were designed to prevent a massive war, actually led to one. Basically since 2005, and especially after 2009-2014 the theory was that Hamas could be left in charge there and allowed to grow much more powerful, and there was a “this is fine” mentality
It’s essential to understand this lesson. If you let enemies grow to strong then you can spend huge amounts of resources having to fight them and it’s not an easy task. Each part of the task in Gaza takes months or years and it’s multiple levels of challenges. Hamas isn’t just a relatively strong terror group, like Al-Shabab, it has so many aspects such as its partnership with NGOs and the UN, its leadership in Doha, its underground infrastructure, the border tunnels, etc.
The addiction to managing this conflict and ignoring Hamas and being complacent while Israel prepared for war in the north and Israel even paid lip service to preparing for a “multi-front” war, never imagined a major war in Gaza
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 14
Many believe that if Mohammed Deif was eliminated on July 13 this will have a major impact on Hamas. But there's reason to be skeptical about this also. According to what is known Deif is never seen or photographed in public, he seems to spend most of his time isolated, hiding.
A commander who is rarely in touch with his own brigade or battalion commanders, must have a hard time controlling the battle. That means that if it's true they rarely met with him, then he didn't have day-to-day control, so if he is eliminated, wouldn't the rest of Hamas continue on mostly as before?
The reason I wonder about this, is that if his importance is a "military" commander, in the history of military commanders is there an example of one who is in hiding or not in touch with the forces much but also is of great importance, whose demise simply cannot happen?
Read 14 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 7
What if instead of working with Hamas and whitewashing its presence, major NGOs and the UN had produced quarterly reports since 2007 about Hamas illegal activity such as using hospitals, schools, stealing aid, tunneling under civilian facilities.
These reports would have served as a warning and Hamas would not have felt free to hide among the humanitarians and exploit them as cover and then get hired by these NGOs and basically turn them into a partner of the extremist group
This would have saved a huge number of lives and destruction in Gaza.
Read 17 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(