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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Aug 24, 2019 • 24 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Thread: In years covering Israel's airstrikes in Syria, most of which were "alleged" until Israel began admitting them in August 2017, this is the first time I remember Israel's IDF releasing details so quickly.
The IDF says: "IDF Thwarts Iranian Quds Force and Shiite Militias' Attack Targeting Israel. IDF fighter jets recently targeted a number of terror targets in Aqraba, Syria, southeast of Damascus."
"The strike targeted Iranian Quds Force operatives and Shiite militias which were preparing to advance attack plans targeting sites in Israel from within Syria over the last number of days.
The thwarted attack included plans to launch a number of armed drones." -IDF
"...intended to be used to strike Israeli sites. The IDF is prepared to continue defending the State of Israel against any attempts to harm it and holds Iran and the Syrian regime directly responsible for the thwarted attack." -IDF
Syrian state media claims it shot down all the incoming missiles. The first reports were around 11:27 (23:27) PM local time. IDF claimed the incident around midnight.
Israel's PM Netanyahu spoke to Russian President on August 23 about situation in Syria; and Israel has been alleged to have carried out recent airstrikes in Iraq against Iranian-backed groups .

These "Shiite militias" were mentioned in IDF statement

mideastcenter.org/post/tracking-…
Context is also the discussion about Iran's "land bridge"

mideastcenter.org/post/tracking-…
Important to remember the last major strikes southeast of Damascus, early June and

ynetnews.com/articles/0,734…

And late July
thedefensepost.com/2019/08/01/isr…
It's important to note that this strike was against drones and "Shiite militias"; remember an Iranian drone penetrated Israel airspace in February 2018 jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…

Iran is improving drone tech: thehill.com/opinion/intern…
Iraqi Sh'ite militia leaders have threatened Israel before, as early as December 2017; there was an airstrike on Kata'ib Hezbollah in June 2018 in Syria, but in recent days the issue of the militias has grown
jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…

See also
jpost.com/Middle-East/Ar…
The last piece of wider context is the history of Iran's "land bridge"; jpost.com/Middle-East/Th…
Here is my analysis of the August 24 incident jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-C…
Adding to this the comparison/background of the January 21 incident “The IDF is currently striking Iranian Quds targets in Syrian territory. The IDF warns the Syrian Armed Forces against attempting to harm Israeli territory or forces” from 1:29am.
A look at three statements from Israel regarding the attack last night in Syria, the first is the IDF press release, then the IDF tweet and then Netanyahu's statement. I highlighted some of the slight differences that I thought interesting
Fars News has a report on the "unprecedented Zionist" acknowledgement of the Syria attack farsnews.com/news/139806030…
Israel Radio includes comments from Avi Dichter re: Syria/Iran tensions and also former defmin Lieberman, Lieberman criticizes government’s speed of claiming Syria airstrikes and also mentions Iraq;
I compiled a list of most Israeli IDF official statements over the past year, handy reference and a look back at the context of the August 24 airstrikes, with links and tweets

sethfrantzman.com/2019/08/25/a-y…
IRGC says its forces not hit
ynetnews.com/articles/0,734…
Now reports of another drone strike near Iraq-Syria border?
Israel IDF releases video of the Aug 22 incident of alleged IRGC with drone in Arneh near Golan #Breakingnews
The new reports of an attack on KH remind one of the June 2018 incident sethfrantzman.com/2018/06/20/the…
These reports emerge as Nasrallah speech vows that no drones will enter Lebanon; oddly it seems two drones crashed early Aug 25 morning were Iranian,
El-Etejah reporting "strikes on equipment stores belonging to the 45th Brigade in Al-Qaim district"
aletejahtv.com/archives/307515
Al-Manar reports casualties at the Qaim airstrike,

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 6
There is a lot of talk today about sheikhs in Hebron who want to for an "emirate" of Hebron. This is being greeted by some as a positive initiative. Let's take a look at the claims and also what the results could be. Image
First, the context. Israel is engaged in a 637 day war in Gaza against Hamas. Hamas still controls around 40 percent of Gaza. In Gaza, Israel has backed an initiative to have armed militias involved in some activities in the rest of Gaza. There is one named commander, Abu Shabab (not his real name obviously) and there are rumored to be others.

Some see this as a wise decision to have multiple armed gangs and militias run a post-war Gaza. Israel's current government opposes having the PA run Gaza, so the theory is that armed militias fighting eachother and Hamas is a good future.
In the West Bank the PA has been relatively successful at ruling Palestinian cities and towns for thirty years. However, Israel's current government includes parties that oppose the PA. The PA leader Mahmoud Abbas is aging and there is talk of what comes next.
Read 25 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 29
Israel's Ynet says IDF possibly "preparing for a new phase in its campaign against Hamas on Sunday, as heavy airstrikes pounded northern Gaza and military officials weighed a deeper ground maneuver, potentially including a renewed incursion into Gaza City."

Is this the third "new phase" since March 2025? There was one that began on March 1 after the ceasefire fell apart; it truly began on March 18...then another one began after May 5 with Gideon's Chariots. Now, it's June 29...and yet another.
What the report says is a "deeper" maneuver...the IDF has spent the last months basically re-taking buffer areas around Gaza, leaving Hamas in charge of the central camps and Gaza city. 632 days of war and the IDF basically never went into parts of Gaza city or the central camps.
I remember having a conversation with someone a year ago and I'd said that the IDF still needs to defeat Hamas and remove it. They said "but hasn't Israel taken all of Gaza and defeated Hamas"...I had to remind them that, no...the Israeli offensive always leaves Hamas in charge of around half of Gaza. And it's the same a year later.
Read 5 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 23
Iran's targeting of Qatar appears counter intuitive because Doha has generally been the most friendly country toward Tehran in the Gulf. Unlike the tensions that have existed between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in the past with Iran; and to a lesser extent the UAE; Doha is close to Iran. Al-Udeid US base in Qatar is also just one of MANY US bases in the Gulf; there is also the naval facility in Bahrain, and al-Dhafra in the UAE and sites in Kuwait.
However, on the other hand Iran may assume it has enough political capital built up with Doha, and also cooperation with them in the energy sector; that Iran can do this and climb down after. If Iran focused on Saudi Arabia it could harm the fragile Beijing brokered new relations with Riyadh; it if targeted the UAE this could cause a crisis; also Bahrain could lead to a crisis.
Doha is therefore the least obvious choice. Iran could have targeted Al-Asad base in Iraq, or US bases in Syria, or in the KRG or US naval ships, or many other locations. However, Tehran may have assumed Doha is a kind of safe bet. It could tell Doha before hand what it would do, then there will be a formal complaint but maybe this leads to a deal brokered by Doha and Ankara?
Read 13 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 22
What happened to the Iranian hardliners? Remember back in the era before the JCPOA and also after we were always told that it was important to "empower" the "moderates" in Iran's regime and that if we didn't do everything the regime wanted then the "hardliners" would be empowered? What happened to this fiction?
The narrative of hardliners and moderates was obviously a transparent nonsense designed to cater to the West's need to feel that it can "do X and then Iran will be happy and do Y"...it was sold to the West in a nice package and hundreds of opeds in Western media and commentators employed this paradigm to explain Iran
Notice how Iran's regime never felt it needed to "empower moderates in the US"...or that its behavior, such as attacking Saudi Arabia or Israel or other countries would "empower hardliners." Iran never had to sell itself this fiction because this was a talking point cooked up in the West, probably at a focus-group decades ago, as a way to sell the West, and especially the US, a mythical Iran policy.
Read 8 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 13
The data behind the attack according to Israeli media, around 200 warplanes using 330 munitions against 100 targets
Compare to a recent strike on the Houthis which was 20-30 warplanes and 50 munitions
The October strike was reported to include around 100 aircraft
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 13
In February 2019 Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami, who was then the second-in-command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, claimed that if a war with Israel took place, then it "will result in Israel’s defeat within three days."
Salami made a lot of predictions. Image
As recently as a day ago he was talking about an "unprecedented" response and that Iran was ready for war...

Well... Image
Read 4 tweets

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